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Why is America so alarmed by Brexit? Lest the er be in doubt, remind yourself of this. Never before has a sitting US president visited a fellow democracy in a bid to sway an election. Nor, until now, have 13 former US secretaries of state and defence risked addressing a letter to a foreign electorate with the same motive. Ditto eight former Treasury secretaries and five former supreme commanders of Nato. Not only has the US establishment broken its non-interference rule over Brexit, it is stamping on its smithereens. If we did not know better, it might seem the UK was uniquely important to the future of the world.美国为什么对英国退欧如此惊慌?为避免读者生疑,提醒你自己这一点。在此之前,从未有过在任美国总统为影响一场投票而出访兄弟民主国家,也从未有3名美国前国务卿和国防部长以同样动机冒险给外国选民写信。这样做的还名前财政部长以及5名北Nato)前最高指挥官。美国的体制内人士不仅在英国退欧问题上打破了不干涉原则,还在上面踩上一脚。如果我们不懂的话,我们还以为英国真的对世界的未来具有独特的重要性。Seductive though that thought may be particularly for a Brit living in Washington there is a domestic subtext that can be summarised in two words: Donald Trump. If the British are foolish enough to leave Europe, perhaps Americans are crazy enough to elect Mr Trump. Of course, no one would claim a causal link between what happens in Britain on June 23 and the US presidential election in November. Most American voters have never heard of Brexit. Nor would most feel strongly either way if they had.尽管这种想法或许诱人——尤其是对居住在华盛顿的英国人而言——但美国国内有个两个词的潜台词:唐纳#8226;特朗Donald Trump)。如果英国人愚蠢到选择脱离欧洲,也许美国人真会疯狂到选举特朗普当总统。当然,没人会断言英国63日的退欧公投结果与11月的美国总统大选之间存在因果关系。多数美国选民从未听说过英国退欧。即使听说了,他们中多数人对公投结果也会无动于衷。Yet there are sufficient echoes to trouble America’s besieged elites. In much the same way US music companies test products in the British market, or TV production companies simply borrow what works, the Brexit referendum has become a trial balloon for the health of western democracy. Think of The Office, that dystopian Slough-set comedy that captivated British viewers. Not long after, the US Scranton-based version pulled off a similar hit. For decades, US and UK political trends have tracked each other. Margaret Thatcher swept to power in 1979, the year before Ronald Reagan was elected president. Bill Clinton’s New Democrats paved the way in 1992 for Tony Blair’s New Labour five years later.然而,两件事之间存在足够的回声,让已经被特朗普搞得焦头烂额的美国精英感到不安。就像美国音乐公司在英国市场测试产品,或是电视制作公司借用成功的节目模式一样,英国退欧公投已成为西方民主政体健康状况的试探气球。想想《办公室风云The Office),这部场景设在斯劳市(Slough)的反乌托邦喜剧迷住了英国观众。不久之后,美国以宾西法尼亚州斯克兰顿市(Scranton)为背景的翻拍版本同样掀起了收视热潮。几十年来,美英两国的政治趋势相互追随979年,玛格丽特#8226;撒切Margaret Thatcher)在英国上台执政,一年后,罗纳德#8226;里根(Ronald Reagan)当选美国总统。比#8226;克林Bill Clinton)的新民主党人(New Democrats)992年为5年后托尼#8226;布莱Tony Blair)的新工党(New Labour)开辟了道路。The demographic parallels between those backing Brexit and Mr Trump’s supporters are too close to ignore almost eerily so. Their motives are equally simplistic. Leaving Europe is to Brexiters what building a wall with Mexico is to Trumpians a guillotine on the cacophonous multiculturalism of 21st-century life. From an empirical point of view, Mr Trump’s beautiful wall is no different to the splendid isolation of Boris Johnson, the leading Brexit campaigner: both are reckless illusions. From a poetic standpoint, however, they offer a clean solution to the alienations of the postmodern society. Winston Churchill joked that Britain and America were divided by a common language. Today blue-collar whites on both sides of the Atlantic are speaking in the same idiom. They both yearn for the certainties of a lost age.持退欧的群体在人口结构上与特朗普持者如此相近(这一点近乎诡异),令人无法忽视。他们的动机也同样简单化。脱离欧盟之于退欧派就像在美墨边境修筑隔离墙之于特朗普的持者——与21世纪喧闹多元文化的生活现实决裂。从实角度看,特朗普的壮丽隔离墙与退欧阵营灵魂人物鲍里斯#8226;约翰Boris Johnson)描绘的“光辉孤立”景象并无不同:两者都是鲁莽的痴想。然而,从诗意角度看,他们为后现代社会的疏远提供了一种干脆的解决办法。温斯顿#8226;丘吉Winston Churchill)曾开玩笑说,英美两国被共同的语言割裂。如今,大西洋两岸的蓝领白人操着同样的惯用语。他们都渴望另一个时代的确定性。Both also rely on the specious legalese of their plutocratic champions. Mr Johnson wants to liberate the UK from an often fictitious web of European regulations. Mr Trump insists he is opposed only to illegal Hispanics. Legal ones are apparently welcome. Their true appeal, however, is based on nationalist populism. Both can legitimately point to the hypocrisy of the elites they campaign against. Mr Cameron vowed to cap net UK immigration at 100,000 a year a promise he failed to keep. Successive US administrations have promised to enforce America’s borders before offering amnesty. As a test of market conditions, Britain’s contest between elite hypocrisy and populist sincerity could not be bettered.这两个群体也都依赖各自有钱有势的领导者口中似是而非的法律措辞。约翰逊希望将英国从欧洲法规的蛛网(大部分是虚构的)中解脱出来。特朗普坚称,他反对的只是非法的西语裔移民。依法移民美国的显然受欢迎。然而,他们真正的吸引力建立在民族主义和民粹主义基础上。他们指出精英阶层的虚伪,在这一点上他们是站得住脚的。卡梅伦曾誓言将每年流入英国的净移民人数控制0万人以内,但他未能兑现这一承诺。历届美国行政当局都承诺加强边境管控,但搞到最后都宣布大赦。就测试市场行情而言,英国在精英虚伪与民粹主义真诚之间的较量堪称一绝。Then there is the future of the west. On his UK visit in April, Barack Obama made an eloquent pitch for Britain’s role in Europe. He reminded Britons that the vision of a united Europe was conceived by Churchill as a means to prevent a recurrence of humanity’s two bloodiest wars. There was a grander context, even romance, to the President’s words that Mr Cameron could never emulate. Britain’s prime minister has spent too long denigrating Europe and validating the concerns of those against immigration to make a positive case, which is why he asked Mr Obama to do it for him. It is worth noting that Mr Cameron hired Jim Messina, the manager of Mr Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign, to help make his fear-based economic case against Brexit; even the product managers are interchangeable.还有就是对西方未来的担忧。今月访问英国期间,巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)有力捍卫了英国在欧洲的作用。他提醒英国人,欧洲统一的愿景最初是丘吉尔想出来的,为的是防止人类历史上最血腥的两次大战重演。美国总统把自己的演讲放在宏大的背景下,甚至带有一丝浪漫,这是卡梅伦永远模仿不出来的。英国首相用了太长时间诋毁欧洲——并且肯定那些反移民人士的担忧——以至于他无法用“正能量”阐述留欧的逻辑,这就是他为什么请奥巴马出面为他说话。值得注意的是,卡梅伦聘请了奥巴马2012年连任竞选经理吉#8226;麦西Jim Messina),帮他策划反对退欧的基于恐慌的经济理由;美英之间就连“产品经理”也是可以互换的。Beyond doing a favour for a friend, Mr Obama had larger motives. Washington’s elites rightly fear that Brexit could spark a chain reaction that could lead to the disintegration of the EU. That, in turn, could trigger the collapse of the transatlantic alliance. US global power has always been magnified by the strength of its alliances. The self-inflicted isolation of America’s closest European ally could be the start of a great unravelling.除了为朋友帮忙,奥巴马还有更大的动机。华盛顿的精英阶层有理由担忧,英国退欧可能引发连锁反应,最终导致欧盟解体。这进而可能引发跨大西洋联盟的解体。美国的全球实力一直得到其强大同盟的放大。作为与美国关系最密切的欧洲盟友,英国自我强加的孤立可能意味着一场大解体的开始。Here, too, Mr Trump plays the ghost at the banquet. For the first time since Nato was formed, the US is fielding a presidential candidate who would be indifferent to the demise of the military alliance. Moreover, Mr Trump stands alone among US public figures in supporting Britain’s exit from the EU. “Oh yeah, I think they should leave,he said recently. He added that it would be Britain’s decision to make alone. The latter was true enough. But Mr Trump’s insouciance crystallised what troubles Washington. There are points in history when all that is solid melts into air. Will 2016 be one of those moments?在这方面,特朗普同样扮演了宴会上的幽灵的角色。特朗普是自北约成立以来首位对这一军事同盟的存亡漠不关心的总统候选人。此外,在美国的公众人物中,只有特朗普持英国退出欧盟。特朗普最近称:“噢,是的,我认为他们应该离开。”他补充说,那应该是英国自己的决定。后半句说的没错。但特朗普漫不经心的态度凸显了华盛顿的不安心情。历史上多次出现过貌似坚固的东西一下子烟消云散的时刻016年会成为那些时刻之一吗? /201606/449280As it watches China build up its presence in the South China Sea, one reclaimed island at a time, the US military is betting on a new technology to help retain its edge submarine drones. 目睹中国在南中国South China Sea)地区加强存在、每次声索一个岛的主权,美军正在押注于一项新技术来帮助其保持优势——无人潜艇During the past six months, the Pentagon has started to talk publicly about a once-secret programme to develop unmanned undersea vehicles, the term given the drone subs that are becoming part of its plan to deter China from trying to dominate the region. 在过个月内,五角大楼(The Pentagon)开始公开谈论曾经的机密项目——开发无人潜航器(UUV),即无人潜艇。无人潜艇正成为美军阻止中国主导南中国海地区的计划的一部分Ashton Carter, US defence secretary, made special mention of drone subs in a speech about military strategy in Asia and hinted at their potential use in the South China Sea, which has large areas of shallower water. 美国国防部长阿什#8226;卡特(Ashton Carter)在一次关于亚洲军事战略的演讲中特别提到了无人潜艇,暗示它们可能用于拥有大片浅水区域的南中国海The Pentagon’s investment in subs “includes new undersea drones in multiple sizes and diverse payloads that can, importantly, operate in shallow water, where manned submarines cannot said Mr Carter, who visited a US warship in the South China Sea on Friday. 五角大楼在潜艇方面的投资“包括多种大小、多种载荷的新型无人潜艇,重要的是,它们可以在浅水作业,这是载人潜艇无法做到的,”卡特表示。他上周五视察了美军在南中国海上巡航的斯坦尼斯号(USS Stennis)航母By lifting the veil on new technologies such as drone subs, some of which it hopes will be operational by the end of the decade, the Pentagon is trying to deter potential rivals such as China and Russia by pointing to its continuing military superiority. The drones are part of a push by the US military into robotics as it tries to keep one step ahead. 借着揭开无人潜艇等新技术的面纱,五角大楼正试图通过指出其继续保持的军事优势,来威慑中国和俄罗斯等潜在竞争对手。无人潜艇正是美军力图在技术上领先一步、推动机器人技术的努力的一部分。五角大楼希望部分无人潜艇可以在本十年末投入使用“The idea is that if we were ever to get into a bust-up in the South China Sea, the Chinese would not know for sure what sort of capabilities the US might have,says Shawn Brimley, a former White House and Pentagon official now at the Center for a New American Security. “This might have some deterrent impact on the potential for provocative behaviour.“我们的想法是,如果我们一旦在南中国海上陷入争端,中方将不会确切知道美国可能拥有何种能力,”曾在白White House)和五角大楼担任官员、现于新美国安全中心(Center for a New American Security)供职的肖#8226;布里姆利(Shawn Brimley)称,“这可能会对未来可能的挑衅行为起到一些威慑作用。Mr Carter’s trip to the USS Stennis on Friday was part of a visit to the Philippines aimed at expanding military co-operation between the two countries that is partly aimed at checking China’s growing influence. The Philippines, which will now hosts US fighter jets, is one of the countries that has contested claims with China for some of the land features and islands in the South China Sea. 卡特上周五视察斯坦尼斯号是其菲律宾之行的一部分,他访问菲律宾旨在扩大两国之间的军事合作,部分目的在于遏制中国日益扩大的影响力。菲律宾如今将成为美国战斗机驻地,是与中国在南中国海部分地物和岛屿存在主权争议的国家之一“Countries across the Asia-Pacific are voicing concern with China’s land reclamation, which stands out in size and scope, as well as its militarisation in the South China Sea,Mr Carter said in Manila on Thursday. “亚太各国对中国填海造岛及其在南中国海上的军事化举动表示关切,其填海造岛的规模和范围引人注目,”卡特上周四在马尼拉表示As military competition intensifies in the western Pacific between the US and China, submarines have become one of the key areas. China’s heavy investment in missiles has put at risk US land-based forces in the region and some of its surface vessels. As a result the US is investing bn next year in submarines to “ensure ours is the most lethal and most advanced undersea and anti-submarine force in the world as Mr Carter put it last week. 随着美中在西太平洋上的军事竞争愈演愈烈,潜艇已经成为关键的技术领域之一。中国大力投资导弹,对美国在该地区的陆上军事力量和部分水面舰艇构成威胁。因此,卡特上周表示,美国明年将在潜艇方面投0亿美元,以“确保我们的潜艇是世界上杀伤力最强、最先进的水下及反潜力量”Small, remotely operated subs have been used for some time in search and rescue and the Navy has been using Remus drones to search for mines. The new investments are in more autonomous vessels that might eventually carry weapons. 小型远程操控无人潜艇一段时间以来已被用于执行搜救任务,美国海军目前使用Remus无人潜艇来搜索水雷。新投资主要投向自动化更高的潜艇,最终可能将配备武器Last autumn, the US Navy unveiled a 10-foot, semi-autonomous sub drone known as the large displacement unmanned underwater vehicle, which is due to conduct its first test voyage in open seas in the summer. Officials hope that a squadron will be operating by 2020 if tests go well. As well as being able to operate for 30 days at a time, other distinguishing features of the submarine include being yellow. 去年秋天,美国海军公布了长达10英尺、半自动化的无人潜艇,被认为是大排量无人潜水器,定于今年夏天在公海进行首次试航。如果试航顺利,美国官员希望020年之前组建中队进行作业。除了可以单次作0天以外,该潜艇的辨识特征还包括黄色外观The initial function of sub drones is expected to be surveillance, however naval planners believe there are endless potential uses. One model is what one official calls a Russian doll approach with a mother sub or surface vessel that can then release a series of much smaller drones that could be mines or used to track subs or even launch their own missiles. 预计无人潜艇的初步功能是侦查,不过海军规划人士认为,无人潜艇有着无尽的潜在用途。其中一种模式被一名官员称为俄罗斯套娃模式——一艘母艇或者水面舰艇可以释放一系列小得多的无人潜艇,可以用作水雷或者用于追踪潜艇、甚至发射导弹Small sub drones would be much harder to monitor using sonar systems that are designed to find large objects in deep waters. It might be possible, for instance, for a vessel to enter an enemy harbour unobserved. 小型无人潜艇很难被声纳系统(用于在深水寻找大型目标)探测。例如,它或许可以在敌方毫无察觉的情况下进入其港口The Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has been testing a programme it calls upward falling payloads robot pods that would hide on the ocean floor for years and release sub drones or small surveillance aircraft once activated. Another reconnaissance drone under development is shaped and swims like a small fish. 五角大楼国防高级研究计划Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency)一直在试验其所称的“浮沉载荷计划Upward Falling Payloads)。该项目研发的是可以在海底隐藏多年的机器人舱,一旦激活,该机器人舱可以发射无人潜艇或小型侦查飞行器。另一项正在研发中的无人驾驶侦察器的造型像小鱼一样,可以像鱼一样游动“The use of undersea drones opens up a whole new area of capabilities,said Mr Brimley. “无人潜艇的使用打开了作战能力的全新领域,”布里姆利称The principal obstacles at the moment are providing enough power for the drones so that they can stay underwater for long periods and communicating with them. 目前的主要障碍是为无人潜艇提供足够动力以使它们可以长期待在水下,以及如何与无人潜艇进行沟通Officials are also debating how much autonomy they will want to give sub drones an issue that will become more difficult if and when they start to carry weapons. 美国官员也在争论该给无人潜艇多大的自主权——一旦它们开始搭载武器,该问题将变得更加复杂As well as investing in undersea drones, the US is developing unmanned surface vessels. Last week the Pentagon unveiled what it calls the Sea Hunter, the prototype of a sub hunter. Robert Work, deputy secretary of defence, said the vessels could be used in the western Pacific in the next five years. 除了对无人潜艇进行投资外,美国还在研发无人驾驶水面舰艇。上周,五角大楼公布了反潜无人驾驶船“海猎号Sea Hunter)。美国国防部副部长罗伯特#8226;沃克(Robert Work)称,该船或将在未来五年内用于西太平洋作业。来 /201604/438366For German chancellor Angela Merkel, 2016 was another dramatic year that put her centre stage in global affairs and left her facing calls to take over outgoing US President Barack Obama’s mantle as the leader of the western world.对于德国总理安格默克Angela Merkel)而言016年又是惊心动魄的一年,她被推上了全球事务的中央舞台,同时呼声四起,要求她接过即将离任的美国总统巴拉奥巴Barack Obama)的担子,成为西方世界的领袖。While Ms Merkel dismissed such demands as absurd, she has recognised that the populist Donald Trump’s election to the White House has added to her huge responsibilities. 默克尔并不响应这种呼声,斥之为荒唐,但她已经意识到,民粹主义者唐纳德.特朗Donald Trump)当选美国总统后,她肩上的担子更重了。Any thought that, after three terms in power, she might retire at 62 has been swept away: 人们原本以为,在当了三任总理后,她可能在62岁退休。she has decided to stand again in next year’s parliamentary elections.如今这种想法已经烟消云散,因为她已决定明年再次参加议会选举。And she has made clear that she has far more than Germany on her mind pledging to carry on the fight for liberal democracy, free trade and open societies even as rightwing populists are heading in a different direction. 而且她明确表示,她心中所着想的绝不止是德国——她承诺继续为自由民主、自由贸易和开放社会而战,即便右翼民粹主义者正冲着不同的方向去了。This promise alone was enough to make Ms Merkel the FT’s Person of the Year for 2015, a leading contender for this year and will almost certainly put her in the running for 2017.这一承诺就足以让默克尔成为了英国《金融时报015年年度人物016年这一称号的有力争夺者,也几乎肯定会让她017年入围。For much of 2016, she has tried to win back support from voters sceptical about her mid-2015 decision to keep open the country’s borders for refugees. 2015年中期她决定向难民开放德国边境招致了部分选民的怀疑,016年的大部分时间里她一直试图重新赢回这部分选民的持。While insisting that she was right at the time, she has since tightened asylum rules and supported a controversial EU-Turkey migration deal.尽管她坚持认为自己当初的决定是正确的,但她后来已经收紧了难民政策并且持欧盟与土耳其达成的一项有争议的移民协议。The country remains divided, with the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party capitalising on anti-Merkel sentiment. 国家仍然存在裂痕,反移民的德国新选择Alternative for Germany)大加利用国内反默克尔的情绪。But, battered and bruised though she is, she remains favourite to win next year’s poll, even with reduced support.不过,尽管饱受抨击、创伤累累,默克尔仍然大有希望赢得明年的选举,即便持率可能会下滑。来 /201612/484517

The article, titled “How China could switch off Britain’s lights in a crisis if we let them build Hinkley C raised fears that “no one knows what ‘blackdoortechnologies mightintroduce.. into the building of a power plant…”那篇文章命题为【如果我们让中国建立欣克利角C核电站,中国能如何在决定性时刻关闭英国的灯】,『没人知道的是「后门」技术可能会引入到核电站之修建中……』这一点唤起了人们的忧虑。Japan has been paying 10,000 pounds per month to a British think tank to hype up “China threatamong British high-level politicians, the media here has reported. A detailed report carried out by The Sunday Times said that the Japanese Embassy in London reached a deal with the Henry Jackson Society (HJS), a registered charity, to wage a propaganda campaign against China.这里的媒体报道,日本每月向英国的智囊团万英镑,以炒作英国高层政治家的「中国威胁论」《星期日泰晤士报》报道的一份详细报告称,日本驻伦敦大使馆与注册慈善机构亨利?杰克逊协会(HJS)达成协议,日本资助HJS进行反华宣传运动。It said that the deal was reached in response to growing cooperation between China and Britain, Xinhua news agency reported on Monday. This weekend, the former British Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind acknowledged that the HJS, founded in 2005, had approached him to put his name to an article published by the Daily Telegraph in August 2016, expressing concerns about Chinas involvement in Britains Hinkley Point C nuclear plant.新华社星期一报道称,这是为了应对中英两国合作关系日益扩增而达成的协议。在这个周末,前英国外交大臣马尔科姆里夫金德承认,成立于2005年的HJS曾经联系他,016月在每日电报上以他的署名发表了一篇文章,该文章对中国参与英国的欣克利角C核电站的修建表示担忧。The article, titled “How China could switch off Britains lights in a crisis if we let them build Hinkley C raised fears that “no one knows what blackdoor technologies mightintroduce.. into the building of a power plant…The Sunday Times said Japans secret PR (public relations) war on China reflects Tokyos concerns about the “golden decadeof Sino-British cooperation.那篇文章命题为【如果我们让中国建立欣克利角C核电站,中国能如何在决定性时刻关闭英国的灯】, 『没人知道的是「后门」技术可能会引入到核电站之修建中……』这一点唤起了人们的忧虑《星期日泰晤士报》说,日本「秘密公关」对中国的战争反映了东京对中英合作的『黄金十年』的关切。来 /201702/490503

In Nigeria, there is a hashtag doing the rounds: #BringBack-Corruption. A tongue-in-cheek repudiation of the anti-corruption drive being spearheaded by President Muhammadu Buhari, the campaign nevertheless reflects real anger at rising hardship. 在尼日利亚,有一个正在迅速流传的话题标签还我腐败#(#BringBack-Corruption)。这是对尼日利亚总统穆罕默杜#8226;布哈Muhammadu Buhari)发起的反腐行动的戏谑的批评,尽管如此,这一批评的确反映出他们对尼日利亚日益加剧的困境的真切愤怒Never mind that the main culprit of Nigeria’s woes is the price of oil: at a barrel, a big comedown for a mono-commodity state whose cronies, schemers and skimmers have grown accustomed to the 0-a-barrel lifestyle. Not a few Nigerians, even those too poor and too removed from power to leech off the petro-economy, are blaming Mr Buhari’s war on graft for their misfortune. 没有人在意的是,造成尼日利亚困境的罪魁祸首其实是油价:现在的油价是每0美元,这让这个依赖单一大宗商品的国家非常落魄(这个国家的当权者的亲信、阴谋家和揩油者已经习惯了油价处于每桶100美元时的生活方式)。相当多的尼日利亚人,甚至是那些极度贫困、极度无权无势以至于无法从石油经济中捞油水的人,都指责布哈里的反腐斗争导致了他们的困境“With corruption a bag of pure water was N80. Without corruption a bag of pure water is N150 #BringBack-Corruption goes a typical refrain. Another highlights one company’s efforts to wring more profit from a shrivelling market. “Titus Sardine started with 4 fishes, it reduced to 3. Now it’s 2. In years to come, you’ll open Sardine and see ‘Try Again, No fish this time#BringBackCorruption.“有腐败的时候一袋纯净水要80奈拉。没有腐败的时候一袋纯净水要150奈拉#还我腐败#”,这是一条具有代表性的抱怨。另一条抱怨表明一家公司从萎缩的市场中挤出多一点利润的尝试。“Titus牌沙丁鱼罐头最开始一罐里头有4条鱼,然后减少到条。现在有2条。未来几年,你打开沙丁鱼罐头以后会看到‘再试一次,这次没有鱼#还我腐败#”Mr Buhari has indeed made the pursuit of corruption, along with the fight against Boko Haram terrorists, his biggest priority, though the link with rising prices or diminishing fish portions is not entirely obvious. Despite there being little if any direct correlation, many say that a whole system once lubricated by under-the-table money has simply seized up. 布哈里的确将打击腐败和科哈拉姆(Boko Haram)恐怖分子放在了首位——尽管这和物价上升或者鱼肉份量减少之间的联系并不明显。直接联系即使有的话,也很微弱,但许多人说,整个曾经靠台面下资金的润滑得以运转的体制如今已经停止运作Mr Buhari, a retired general, ran the country in the early 1980s after seizing power the old-fashioned way in a military coup. He also railed against the endemic corruption that made Nigeria notorious, even in Africa. Whatever traction he gained during two years of military rule was quickly lost. Levels of state theft reached vertiginous heights under subsequent leaders. 退役将军布哈里曾在上世0年代初治理过这个国家,当时他是通过一种老派的方式——军事政变上台的。那一次他也曾怒斥尼日利亚猖獗的腐败,该国的腐败即便在非洲也是臭名昭著的。布哈里在那为期两年的军事统治中取得的任何成果后来很快都消失了。在后来数任领导人的统治下,盗窃国家财产的猖獗程度达到令人发指的水平Now, after his surprise win in last year’s election, Mr Buhari is having another go. Under his direction, state prosecutors have gone after several high-ranking members of the previous administration of Goodluck Jonathan, though the former president, who had the grace to quit office when electors booted him out, is assumed to be safe from prosecution. 去年意外在选举中获胜的布哈里正在进行又一次尝试。在他的指令下,尼日利亚检方已经起诉了前总统古德勒克#8226;乔纳Goodluck Jonathan)领导的上一届政府中的多名高官,尽管乔纳森本人应该会被免于起诉(他在被选民投下台时爽快地让出了位置)Results have been mixed. The trial of Sambo Dasuki, a former national security adviser, has run into trouble over alleged procedural irregularities, blamed by some on Mr Buhari’s military instincts and his impatience with the niceties of the law. Mr Dasuki is accused of helping to “divertabout .1bn meant to have been deployed in fighting Boko Haram. 结果好坏参半。对前国家安全顾问桑#8226;达苏Sambo Dasuki)的审判因为涉嫌程序失当而遇到了麻烦,一些人将其归咎于布哈里的军人本能和他对法律细节的不耐烦。达苏基被指控帮助他人“挪用”本应用于打击科哈拉姆分子的约21亿美元的拨款Recent attacks on power stations and oil and gas pipelines have been blamed on saboteurs angered by Mr Buhari’s crackdown on nefarious activities. As lights flicker off and private generators cough into action, some Nigerians have taken to muttering: “When you fight corruption, corruption fights back.最近针对发电厂和油气管道的袭击,被认为是布哈里打击犯罪活动激起的蓄意破坏。一盏盏灯忽闪着熄灭,私人发电机轰隆隆地运转起来,一些尼日利亚人禁不住嘟囔:“你打击腐败,腐败也在还击。Champagne importers and car dealers, too, are complaining that officials are not spending like they used to. “There’s not enough money flowing around because everything was being financed by corruption,says Mohammed Garuba, head of asset management at CardinalStone, a Lagos-based financial institution. 香槟进口商和汽车经销商也抱怨官员们出手不如过去阔绰了。“流转的资金不足,因为一切都是靠腐败来提供资金的,”位于拉各斯(Lagos)的金融机构CardinalStone的资产管理主管穆罕默#8226;加鲁Mohammed Garuba)说Mr Buhari’s drive is laudable. It is, however, unlikely to work. He is right to end the culture of impunity by going after big offenders. But unless he can tackle the underlying causes of corruption, the victims of his campaign will be seen as arbitrary and his victories fleeting. 布哈里的反腐行动值得赞誉,然而却不太可能奏效。他为了终结犯罪者不受惩处的氛围去追究重大犯罪者的责任,这样做是正确的。但除非他能够解决腐败的病根,否则人们就会认为他的反腐行动是想针对谁就针对谁,他的胜利也将是昙花一现So what are the causes? Central are the opportunities presented to a parasitic coterie of middlemen, gatekeepers, rationers, arbitrageurs, licensers and fixers. They trade in scarcity, much of it of their own devising. They can get you anything, from business permits to oil blocks if the price is right. In such a rentier system, the disincentives to actually make anything are huge. Mr Buhari has complained with only mild exaggeration that Nigeria cannot even produce toothpicks. 那么病根有哪些呢?核心问题是,由中间人、看门人、配给者、套利者、许可发放者和代人疏通者组成的寄生阶层有空子可钻。他们把“稀缺性”当生意来做,这种稀缺性大部分又是他们自己设计出来的。他们能为你搞到任何东西,从经营许可到石油区块——只要你出合适的价钱。在这样一个食利者体制中,做任何实业的障碍都是巨大的。布哈里曾经抱怨尼日利亚连牙签都造不出来——这话并不算十分夸张To tackle the root cause of corruption, Nigeria needs to purge rent-seeking opportunities. Nowhere are these more evident than in the oil industry. Nigeria is the largest petroleum producer in Africa. Its output of 2m barrels a day is controlled by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, a many-tentacled entity which and you can almost see the flashing red warning sign both regulates and participates in the oil business. The NNPC dabbles in exploration, distribution and refining, though the latter mostly consists of exporting raw crude and importing refined products at scandalous prices. 要解决腐败的病根,尼日利亚需要清除寻租的机会。这一点在石油行业再明显不过。尼日利亚是非洲最大的石油生产囀?该00万桶原油的日产量控制在尼日利亚国家石油公NNPC)的手中。该公司业务范围很广。它既是石油行业的监管者,也是石油行业的参与者(你几乎都能看见红色的警示灯在闪烁)。尼日利亚国家石油公司涉足开采、分销和精炼,尽管所谓的“精炼”基本就是出口原油,然后以令人发指的价格进口精炼石油产品The NNPC is a case study in how to sacrifice national interest to personal gain. The auditor-general recently found that it had failed to remit bn to the Treasury in 2014 alone. Amazingly, in oil-abundant Nigeria, most people have no electricity. One does not have to be a market fundamentalist to conclude that the NNPC needs shrinking to as small a size as possible, where zero is the optimal number. 尼日利亚国家石油公司堪称如何牺牲国家利益中饱私囊的典型案例。尼总审计长最近发现,014年一年,该公司没有上交给财政部的资金就达60亿美元。惊人的是,在石油资源丰富的尼日利亚,大多人还用不上电。一个人不必是市场原教旨主义者就能得出结论,尼日利亚国家石油公司应该尽可能削减规模,最好是彻底消失Few doubt Mr Buhari’s sincerity in taking on corruption. Yet punishing individual wrongdoers will not be enough. Unless he can devise coherent strategies to squeeze graft from the system, it will return with a vengeance once he has gone. Then the advocates of #BringBackCorruption will have got their way. It will, though, be a cause for anything but celebration. 很少有人质疑布哈里打击腐败的诚意。然而,惩罚单个的违法分子是不够的。除非他能够设计出连贯的策略将腐败从体制中彻底铲除,否则一旦他离开,腐败就会以变本加厉之势卷土重来。那时候还我腐败#的人就如愿了。然而,这唯独不值得庆祝。来 /201604/439688

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