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来源:豆瓣爱问    发布时间:2017年10月20日 09:26:40    编辑:admin         

Three years ago, the University of Vermont in Burlington began to experiment with a few nudges towards a healthy, sustainable lifestyle. First, in 2012, campus outlets and the company operating the vending machines were required to make sure that at least 30 per cent of the drinks on offer were wholesome stuff such as vegetable juice, low-fat milk and water. A few months later, selling bottled water on campus was banned outright. The aim, pushed hard by student campaigners, was to encourage students to fill reusable bottles with tap water instead.三年前,位于伯灵顿的佛蒙特大学(University of Vermont)开始尝试一些推进健康、可持续生活方式的“轻推”(nudge)举措。首先,在2012年,校园商店和经营自动售货机的公司被要求确保它们提供的饮料中有至少30%是健康饮品,比如蔬菜汁、低脂牛奶和水。几个月后,校园里彻底禁售瓶装水。这一举动的目标是鼓励学生用自来水灌入可重复使用的饮水瓶、以代替瓶装水,学生倡导者也努力推动这一目标的实现。So, how did the Vermont experiment go? A study by Elizabeth Berman and Rachel Johnson (of the University’s own Department of Nutrition and Food Sciences) was recently published in the American Journal of Public Health. The researchers found that “per capita shipments of bottles, calories, sugars and added sugars increased significantly when bottled water was removed...As bottled water sales dropped to zero, sales of sugar-free beverages and sugar-sweetened beverages increased.”那么,佛蒙特大学这一尝试的结果如何?该校营养与食品科学部的伊丽莎白伯曼(Elizabeth Berman)和蕾切尔约翰逊(Rachel Johnson)最近在《美国公共健康杂志》(American Journal of Public Health)上发表了一项研究。两位研究者发现,“瓶装水没有了以后,瓶子、热量、糖和添加糖的人均消耗量都显著增加了……随着瓶装水销量降至零,无糖饮料与含糖饮料的销量都增加了。”In other words, the policy backfired with both barrels. Students didn’t switch to tap water, they switched to the likes of Coke and Diet Coke instead. All this would be just an amusing curiosity — one more example of student campaigners who are all heart and no brains — if it weren’t for the fact that more mature policy makers often commit similar blunders on much broader canvases. We would do well to learn some lessons from the University of Vermont’s experience.换句话说,该政策在两个目标上都适得其反。学生们并未改喝饮用自来水,而是改喝可口可乐、健怡可乐之类的饮料。如果不是更多成熟的政策制定者在更广阔的领域经常犯同样错误的话,这一切只不过是有趣的奇闻异事,成为学生倡导者一腔热血但是不动脑子的又一个例。我们最好从佛蒙特大学的例子中汲取一些教训。The first lesson is that when it comes to saving the planet, people focus on what they can see. Type “environmental impact of concrete” into a search engine and you are likely to see a page filled with scholarly analysis pointing out that the impact is very large indeed, because cement production releases vast volumes of carbon dioxide. Type “environmental impact of bottled water” instead and your search results will be packed with campaigning groups seeking to persuade you to change your ways.第一个教训是,当谈到拯救地球时,人们专注于自己能看到的事。在搜索引擎中键入“水泥对环境的影响”,你可能会看到整个搜索结果页面上全都是各种指出水泥对环境的影响确实很大(因为水泥的生产过程释放出大量二氧化碳)的学术分析。再键入“瓶装水对环境的影响”,搜索结果肯定全都是各种活动团体试图说你改变生活方式。This is understandable: I can’t do much about concrete but I can stop drinking bottled water. But being a logical target for campaigners is not the same as being a logical target for policy action.这是可以理解的:我对水泥生产无能为力,但我可以停止喝瓶装水。但作为活动人士的目标合乎逻辑,不等于它作为政策行动的目标也合乎逻辑。The second lesson is that we often struggle to deal with multiple goals. The University of Vermont wanted to reduce the flow of plastic water bottles to landfill but also wanted to encourage students to be healthy. There’s a clear conflict between these goals. Water is as healthy a drink as you can find, yet that was exactly what the University of Vermont was banning from vending machines. Wishful thinking provides a resolution — if everyone just drank tap water then there would be no problem. But wishful thinking is not an excuse for setting no priorities.第二个教训是,我们往往很难同时应对多个目标。佛蒙特大学既想减少需要填埋的塑料水瓶的数量,又想鼓励学生培养健康的生活方式。这两个目标存在明显的矛盾。喝水最健康,但佛蒙特大学恰恰禁止自动售货机出售瓶装水。一厢情愿的思维方式提供了一个——如果每个人都干脆喝自来水,问题就解决了。但一厢情愿的思维方式并非放弃设定优先顺序的借口。We see this sharply in the debate over nuclear power. We want to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that result from burning fossil fuels. We also want to avoid radioactive waste and the risk of radiation leaks. In response to a genuine policy dilemma, politicians have tended to plump for wishful thinking every time, typically involving wind turbines.在关于核能的辩论中,我们更清楚地看到了同样一幕。我们想减少燃烧化石燃料带来的温室气体排放。我们也想避免放射性废料以及辐射泄漏的风险。在回应这一真正的政策两难时,政客们每次都倾向于选择一厢情愿的思维方式,通常都涉及风力涡轮机。The third lesson is that the much-vaunted notion of “nudging” doesn’t always help navigate a complicated policy maze. Nudging means using default options, information design and similar techniques to achieve policy goals. It can be very successful. But careless nudges are no more welcome in public policy than at a domino-toppling event. If you pick a questionable target (bottled water) and fudge a key policy dilemma (the environment vs health) then nudging isn’t going to solve your problems.第三个教训是,备受吹捧的“轻推”概念并不总能帮助我们走出政策迷宫。“轻推”意味着使用默认的选项、信息设计以及相似的技术来实现政策目标。它可以很成功。但粗心的“轻推”在公共政策领域不比它在推倒多米诺骨牌的游戏中更受欢迎。如果你选择了一个有问题的目标(瓶装水)并随随便便制造出一个重要的政策困境(环境vs健康),那么“轻推”将不会解决你的问题。So what can be done? One approach is to try to reach policy goals with the help of market signals. The classic example of this is a carbon tax, levied on fossil fuels to reflect their carbon-dioxide emissions. The advantage of this approach is that it encourages everybody at any stage of production or consumption to take actions that reduce emissions, because those actions will save them money. A truck manufacturer might develop a cleaner engine, a logistics company might find a more efficient delivery algorithm, and the final consumer might decide to consume a little less.那么,我们能做什么呢?一种方法是,设法在市场信号的帮助下达成政策目标。这方面的经典例子是碳税——以化石燃料为对象、按照其二氧化碳排放量征收。这种方法的优点在于,它鼓励处于生产或消费任何阶段的每个人都采取行动减少碳排放,因为这样做可以省钱。卡车制造商或许会开发出更清洁的发动机,物流公司可能会找到更高效的投递算法,而终端消费者可能会决定少消费一些。The idea of using the price system to solve environmental problems is widely accepted by economists but, alas, it finds itself stranded in the policy doldrums. Ponder this: the Pope recently argued that climate change was a grave problem but he opposed market-based responses. Meanwhile the US Republican party likes market-based responses but isn’t so convinced about climate change.利用价格体系解决环境问题的理念得到经济学家们的广泛认同,但可惜的是,这一理念自身被困在了政策内耗之中。思考一下:教皇最近称,气候变化是一个严重问题,但他反对基于市场的应对措施。与此同时,美国共和党喜欢基于市场的措施,但并不怎么相信气候变化真实存在。One other advantage of using environmental taxes is that people can decide on their own priorities. A lot of what we do has consequences for the planet — including breathing — and so part of the problem we face is deciding what is worth doing anyway.采用环境税的另一个好处是,人们可以决定自己的优先顺序。我们的很多活动(包括呼吸)都对地球产生影响,因此,我们面临的部分问题在于决定什么事值得去做。Perhaps it is time for a confession. I am writing this column on the hottest July day recorded in British history. At my left hand is a glass of chilled sparkling water, and next to the glass is a plastic bottle to top it up. If there had been a tax on that bottle, it is a tax I would willingly have paid.或许我该坦白一下了。我正在英国历史上有记录以来7月最炎热的一天写这篇专栏,我左手边是一杯冰镇苏打水,玻璃杯旁边是一个塑料瓶,用来把杯中的苏打水加满。如果这个瓶子需要交税的话,这税我愿意交。 /201507/386317。

Li Siguang and Geomechanics李四光和地质力学In the 1920s, Li Siguang, a geologist and founder of geological mechanics of China, set up the subject of geological mechanics and made great contribution to the geological theory. He studied lithosphere with the mechanic theory, and established the tectonic system, one of the bask concepts of tectonic mechanics. He provided new ways to explore the natural phenomena and ushered in new ways of studying the lithosphere movement. His theory made great contribution to China#39;s oil reconnaissance and survey.20世纪20年代,地质学家,中圈地质力学的奠基人李四光建立了新的边缘学科“地质力学”,为地质学理论作出了伟大贡献。倡导用力学观点研究地质,建立了 “构造体系”概念——地质力学最基本的概念之.为探索矿产分布的规律及其研究地壳运动提供r新方法。他的理论为中困石油的探索和发现作出了重要贡献。 /201602/419370。

Bill Gates is no stranger to progressive thinking. The philanthropic foundation he runs with his wife, Melinda, has backed everything from longer-lasting pill-based contraception to a process whereby human waste can be converted into safe, drinkable water. Most of their efforts are focused on improving conditions for the world’s poor in markets often neglected by private sector corporations and government aid。盖茨从来就是先进思想的代表。从持更长效的避药物,到持能转化人体排泄物生成安全的饮用水的工艺流程,盖茨与其妻经营的慈善基金会力挺多个项目。他们致力于改善世界贫困地区的条件,而私企和政府的援助常常会忽视这些贫困地区的市场。Bill Gates has announced that he will be doubling his personal investments in clean energy technology over the next five years. Taking his total stake to a whopping US billion in renewable energy production and research, Gates argues that the time is right because he believes that the next five years will see major advancements in technology and initiatives that will help ‘solve’ climate change。盖茨宣布他个人在未来五年会翻倍投资清洁能源技术。投资全部20亿美元股本致力可再生能源的生产研究,盖茨称眼下正是时机,他认为接下来的五年科技会突飞猛进,会大力采取行动帮助“解决”气候变化。Despite the size of Gates’s personal funding for clean technologies, he acknowledges it’s a drop in the ocean compared to the investments and decisions made by governments around the world, prompting him to make the case for why a carbon-free future is a realistic and worthwhile commercial goal。尽管盖茨个人对清洁技术的资金筹措数量不菲,但他也承认,比之世界各国政府的投资和决策而言,不过是杯水车薪。这促使盖茨提出理由,缘何零碳未来是个具现实意义、又值得一拼的商业目标。Gates lays out a three-step model on his blog for how the countries of the world can achieve this ambitious target. Firstly, he says we need to create incentives for innovation by ;drastically increasing government funding for research on clean energy solutions”. Second, we need to develop markets that help get to zero carbon emissions, with models that more accurately recognise the full impact of emitting carbon (including health and environmental factors). Finally, Gates says we need to treat poor countries fairly. Acknowledging that some climate change is inevitable, he advocates richer countries need to help poorer countries adapt to the world’s changing environmental conditions。盖茨在他的客上列出了各国如何达到这一宏伟目标的三步模型。首先,盖茨称要“大力提高政府对研究清洁能源解决方案的资金筹措,”,以此刺激革新。第二,我们要帮助市场达到零碳排放量,这就需要能更精确认识到碳排放影响(包括健康和环境因素)的模型在。最后,盖茨称要公平对待贫困国家,承认有些气候变化已不可逆转,他主张发达国家帮助贫困国家适应世界不断变化的环境条件。 /201508/392618。

Since Apple launched the iPhone in 2007, Nintendo stock has dropped nearly 80 percent.自苹果2007年发布iPhone以来,任天堂的股价下跌了近80%。The Japanese game maker still dominates the portable game market, thanks to its 3DS family of handheld devices. But it’s an admittedly huge piece of an otherwise shrinking pie that market researchers estimate will generate .1 billion in software revenue and .1 billion in hardware revenue this year.凭借3DS系列手持游戏机,这家日本游戏厂商仍然在便携式游戏机市场占据统治地位。但无可否认,这一巨大利好正在逐渐缩水。市场研究人员预计,任天堂今年将从该市场获得41亿美元的软件收入和31亿美元的硬件收入。The money is moving to those other handheld devices, of course—smartphones and tablets. By the end of 2015, eMarketer estimates there will be 1.91 billion smartphone users and 1 billion tablet users.显然,利润正在流向其他手持设备——智能手机和平板电脑。网络调研公司eMarketer预计,到2015年底,智能手机用户将达到19.1亿,平板电脑用户也将达到10亿。Nintendo wants to tap into this growing market with its original game characters such as Mario, Link, Donkey Kong, Star Fox, and Kirby. Through a new partnership with Japanese mobile game publisher DeNA, it will design original games featuring Nintendo characters exclusively for smart devices.任天堂希望凭借公司独创的游戏人物,比如马里奥(Mario)、林克(Link)、大金刚(Donkey Kong)、星际火狐(Star Fox)和星之卡比(Kirby),进入这个蓬勃发展的市场。通过与日本移动游戏厂商DeNA合作,该公司将为智能设备专门开发拥有任天堂游戏人物的原创作品。The move allows Nintendo to continue to deliver exclusive games featuring these characters for its own devices, while offering separate adventures designed for smart devices. Lewis Ward, game analyst at IDC, predicts Nintendo mobile games could grow into Top 10 hits on the global games charts because the appeal of these characters is so strong.凭借这一举动,任天堂不仅能够开发面向智能设备的游戏产品,还可以继续为该公司自身的游戏机提供拥有这些人物的独家游戏。IDC公司的游戏分析师刘易斯o沃德预计,由于这些游戏人物的吸引力很强,任天堂的移动游戏有望跻身全球游戏前十强。A Nintendo spokesman told Fortune: “We have the opportunity to reach hundreds of millions of people. As these consumers enjoy the unique kind of gameplay found only with Nintendo, they will have the opportunity to explore even more premium experiences on Nintendo’s dedicated game platforms.”任天堂发言人对《财富》表示:“我们有机会接触到数亿用户。当这些顾客喜爱上任天堂独一无二的游戏玩法时,他们就会发现,只有在任天堂专有的平台上才有机会享受更优质的游戏体验。”The Nintendo spokesman also said that even when the company uses the same intellectual property, the gaming experience will be different on Nintendo hardware and on smart devices. He added that if Nintendo and DeNA can provide Nintendo-like content on smart devices, Nintendo believes that it will be able to expand its business while keeping the value of its intellectual property intact.这位发言人还表示,即便公司开发的是同一款游戏,在任天堂游戏机和智能设备上的游戏体验也有所不同。他补充道,任天堂相信,他们和DeNA如果在智能设备上提供类似任天堂游戏的内容,就能拓宽业务范围,也不会损害公司知识产权的价值。“It took them a long time, but Nintendo finally realized that the billion mobile gaming market in 2015 is too big to ignore,” said Peter Warman, analyst at game research firm Newzoo. “Nintendo might even realize that the future is device-agnostic, and franchises will eventually be delivered to every screen through the cloud.”研究公司Newzoo的分析师彼得o沃尔曼表示:“任天堂花了很长时间,终于意识到2015年规模300亿美元的移动游戏市场太大了,不容忽视。他们甚至还意识到,未来的游戏不会受到设备的限制,其专有游戏将会通过云,传递到每一块电子屏幕上。”Warman said top mobile game franchises can generate over billion. Nintendo’s strong franchises could be worth more than billion in the mobile games market. With revenue growth rates for console games in single digits, the 22 percent compound annual growth rate seen in the mobile segment is an opportunity and a threat that Nintendo needed to address, added Tim Merel, managing director at Digi-Capital.沃尔曼表示,顶级的移动游戏专营权可以获得10亿美元以上的收入。任天堂的系列游戏影响力强大,在移动游戏市场价值会超过20亿美元。市场研究公司Digi-Capital的董事总经理蒂姆o麦洛表示,任天堂在主机游戏上的年增长率仅有个位数,对他们来说,移动游戏领域整体22%的年增长率,既是需要把握的机遇,也是将要应对的挑战。The failure of the Wii U to compete with Sony’s PlayStation 4 and Microsoft’s Xbox One may have played a significant role in Nintendo’s shift in thinking. At the same time, DeNA has focused recently on partnerships with companies such as Marvel for Marvel Mighty Heroes and Square Enix for Final Fantasy: Record Keeper.在与索尼PlayStation 4和微软Xbox One的竞争中,任天堂的Wii U游戏机败下阵来,这也许是促使该公司转变思路的重要因素。与此同时,DeNA最近还与《漫威奇迹英雄》系列游戏的开发商漫威公司,以及《最终幻想:记忆水晶》的开发商的Square Enix展开合作。“This is a partnership between two weakened parties, and this could prove to be beneficial for both,” Ward said. “DeNA’s home-grown games haven’t performed well so they’re now working with established brands through partnerships, and that poor performance over the last two years like gave Nintendo favorable terms for this relationship.”沃德表示:“这是两大弱势方的一次合作,应该会获得双赢。DeNA的本土游戏表现不佳,所以他们开始与那些知名厂商合作,而过去两年的糟糕业绩让任天堂也有理由接受对方伸出的橄榄枝。”As part of the new collaboration, Nintendo and DeNA invested 1 million in each other through a capital alliance. The companies will also develop and launch a new online membership service this fall that will be accessible from smart devices, PC and Nintendo systems like the Nintendo 3DS and the Wii U.作为新合作的一部分,任天堂和DeNA通过资本联盟,各为对方投资了1.81亿美元。双方还将在今年秋天开发和推出一项新的网络会员制务,该务横跨智能设备、个人电脑和任天堂3DS、Wii U等任天堂产品。Nintendo president Satoru Iwata also announced that the company is working on a new console, codenamed NX. He revealed no further details, but said that Nintendo is committed to continuing its hardware business.任天堂公司总裁岩田聪还宣布,公司将开发一款代号为NX的新主机。他并未进一步公布详细情况,但表示任天堂将一如既往地开展硬件业务。Ward noted that Wii U will have its strongest year yet in 2015 because of the strong lineup of exclusive franchise games like Kirby and the Rainbow Curse, Mario Party 10 and The Legend of Zelda. It’s those characters and franchises that could connect with the more mainstream audiences that are spending more time playing games on tablets and smartphones than ever before.沃德指出,凭借《星之卡比:虹诅咒》、《马里奥派对10》和《塞尔达传说》等独家游戏,Wii U在2015年的表现将空前强劲。这些人物和游戏将与那些花费更多时间在平板电脑和智能手机上的主流玩家,进行前所未有的亲密接触。 /201503/367038。