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时间:2019年08月24日 07:14:28

Up until last year, gold prices rose for at least 11 years in a row. The precious metal spawned a frenzy among everyone from gold bugs to politicos who think America should return to the gold standard. But today they#39;re likely feeling nervous. Gold prices have entered bear market territory, having fallen by 22% this year.直至去年,黄金价格已经连续上涨至少11年。这种贵金属让包括黄金投资者和政客在内的所有人产生了这样一种想法,即美国应该回归金本位制度。但如今他们很可能会感到紧张,因为金价已经进入熊市,今年以来跌幅已经达到了22%。And it#39;s going to get worse as investors zero in on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will scale down its stimulus program, called quantitative easing. Goldman Sachs (GS) analysts say gold will continue dropping into 2014, possibly falling below ,000 an ounce, a level not seen since early 2009. This is a reverse from gold#39;s steady rise from 0 an ounce in early 2009 to more than ,900 in the fall of 2011; on Tuesday morning, it was trading at ,314.50 in New York.而且,未来形势将会变得更加糟糕,投资者正在关注美联储(Federal Reserve)是否会缩减经济刺激计划的规模,即量化宽松。高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师表示,金价下跌将一直持续到2014年,届时可能会跌破每盎司1,000美元,创下自2009年初以来的新低。这个变化将扭转从2009年初到2011年秋天之间的趋势。在此期间,金价从800美元稳步上涨到了1,900上方。17日上午,纽约的黄金交易价格为每盎司1,314.50美元。Regardless whether the Fed tapers its bond-buying program this week or later, a few other factors will likely drive prices lower.无论美联储是否会在本周或随后缩减购债规模,其他一些因素都可能会推动金价走低。Inflation. What inflation?通胀,哪里来的通胀?Gold is typically a hedge against rapidly rising prices. Since the financial crisis, many economies from U.S. to Europe have launched several rounds of quantitative easing. The supply of money tripled in most advanced economies, and many worried it would effectively stoke inflation.通常情况下,黄金是对冲通货膨胀的一种手段。金融危机爆发以来,包括美国和欧洲国家在内的很多经济体都已经启动了多轮量化宽松。它导致大多数发达经济体的货币供应上涨了两倍,很多人担心这对通胀来说是火上浇油。Unless all you consume is bacon, inflation hasn#39;t been a problem as the U.S. and the rest of the world retreats from financial abyss. In fact, global inflation is actually low and falling further. In a June article in Project Syndicate, New York University economist Nouriel Roubini forecast that gold could fall to ,000 by 2015.除非大家消耗的全都是咸肉,否则随着美国和世界其他国家远离金融深渊,通胀已经不再是一个问题。事实上,全球通胀率目前正处于较低的水平,而且还在进一步下滑。Project Syndicate网站今年6月曾经发布了一篇文章,纽约大学经济学家努里尔?鲁比尼在文中预测,金价到2015年可能会下跌到每盎司1,000美元。Roubini, nicknamed Dr. Doom for his forecasts of the financial crisis, noted that even though the supply of money has expanded it hasn#39;t changed very many hands, largely because banks have been hoarding cash in the form of excess reserves.鲁比尼因成功预测金融危机的到来而获得了“末日士”的绰号,他指出,尽管货币供应量扩大了,但由于以额外储备金的方式来储备货币,因此货币的实际交易量并不大。If banks start lending more, however, the risks of inflation could rise. Even then, gold faces other headwinds.然而,如果开始放贷,通胀的风险就可能上升。即使那样,黄金仍然面临其他打压因素。It may be safe, but where are the returns?黄金也许是安全的,但它带来的回报在哪里?Unlike other assets, gold provides no income. That was an overlooked issue during the worst years following the financial crisis, but now that the economy is improving, gold must compete with returns on other investments, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate.跟其他资产不同的是,黄金并不提供收入。金融危机之后最惨淡的那些岁月里,这个问题一直遭到了忽视。但既然现在经济情况正在改善,那么黄金就必须跟其他投资品种,比如股票、债券以及房地产等在回报方面进行竞争。Since Bernanke hinted it could scale back the Fed#39;s bond-buying program soon, interest rates have surged, and they#39;re poised to rise further. This effectively puts gold in a tough spot, as investors sell off the precious metal seeking higher returns in stocks, bonds, and other investments.由于伯南克暗示美联储可能很快就会缩减购债规模,利率已经大幅飙升,而且有望进一步上升。这个变化生生将黄金推到了困境当中,因为投资者纷纷开始抛售这种贵金属,以寻求在股票、债券以及其他投资上获得更高的回报。;The time to buy gold is when the real returns on cash and bonds are negative and falling,; Roubini writes. ;But the more positive outlook about the U.S. and the global economy implies that over time the Federal Reserve and other central banks will exit from quantitative easing and zero policy rates, which means that real rates will rise, rather than fall.;“购买黄金的时机是在现金和债券的实际回报率为负值以及在下滑的时候,”鲁比尼写道。 “不过,对于美国和全球经济前景更加积极的展望意味着,随着时间的推移,美联储和其他央行将退出量化宽松和零利率政策,这意味着实际利率将会上升,而不是下滑。”Crisis in Syria has subsided (at least for now)叙利亚危机已经平息(至少目前如此)Gold is widely viewed as a safe-haven investment. When crisis arises, investors flock to the precious metal as a safe store of value.人们普遍认为黄金是一种投资避风港,危机爆发时,投资者会纷纷涌向这种贵金属,把它作为一种安全的价值储存手段。Markets have been zeroing in on conflicts in Syria, which could potentially push gold higher. At least for now, however, a military strike looks less likely as the country has accepted Russia#39;s proposal for its chemical weapons to be given up for U.N. control. It remains to be seen if Syria is serious about its offer, but it does make U.S. military strikes less likely, at least in the near-term, according to JPMorgan analysts.叙利亚爆发的冲突一直牵动着市场,有可能会推高金价。然而,至少从目前看来,针对叙利亚的军事打击不太可能发生,因为叙利亚已经接受了俄罗斯的提议,打算放弃化学武器,交由联合国控制。据根大通(JPMorgan)分析师分析,叙利亚是否会认真对待这项提议仍有待观察,但它确实让美国实施军事打击的可能性变小,至少在短期内是这样。And even if the offer isn#39;t serious, it#39;s uncertain if Congress would vote for military action.另外,即使叙利亚阳奉阴违,美国国会是否会投票持军事行动仍是未知之数。Another debt ceiling debate could be a snooze新一次债务上限可能不会引起市场波动There#39;s another crisis to consider that could sway the direction of gold: The debt ceiling.我们还要考虑另一场可能影响黄金走势的危机:债务上限。As Americans will recall, there has been not one deadline -- but two -- since 2011. The first almost pushed the economy into catastrophe, with a major ratings agency taking the nation#39;s stellar triple A rating away. The issue was resolved through trillion in discretionary spending cuts combined with sequestration. The second one followed shortly after Obama#39;s re-election, and like the first one, Republicans and Democrats came to an agreement; the debt ceiling was raised.美国人都记得,自2011年以来已经出现两次债务上限。第一次几乎令美国经济陷入灾难,所有主要评级机构都下调了美国3A级别的主权评级。这个问题通过削减1万亿美元可自由配开、同时结合预算封存得到解决。第二次发生在奥巴马连任之后不久,跟第一次一样,共和党和民主党达成协议,再次提高了债务上限。Come mid-October, the nation will approach another deadline. It#39;s likely that the market might snooze through the third debt ceiling debate, as the previous ones were ultimately resolved. That would keep downward pressure on gold, but there is of course a possibility that the latest debt ceiling drama may turn out differently: Republicans say they will raise the debt ceiling only in return for budget concessions, while the Obama administration says it won#39;t offer any.今年10月中旬,美国又将迎来新一次债务上限。由于之前的债务上限问题最终都得到了解决,因此,在第三次债务上限的辩论过程中,市场很有可能不会出现波动。果真如此,黄金的下行压力还会延续。不过,当然还有一种可能性,新一次债务上限问题出现不同的局面:共和党人说,他们只有在预算让步的情况下才会同意提高债务上限,而奥巴马政府则表示不会做任何让步。Eventually, either side will likely budge, but as the Washington Post#39;s Ezra Klein points out, what alarms him now is that ;no one can tell me how one or both of those positions will change before we breach the ceiling.;最终,两党很有可能会让步。但正如《华盛顿邮报》( Washington Post)的以斯拉?克莱恩所指出的,现在让他恐慌的是:“没有人可以告诉我,在我们债务违约之前,两党中的一方或双方的立场将发生什么样的变化。”That uncertainty may send gold higher, but it hasn#39;t, at least not so far.这种不确定性可能会金价走高,但它还没有,至少目前来说是这样。 /201310/260652

The corporate titans who dominate this city#39;s real-estate market and control businesses ranging from cellphone providers to bus companies to supermarkets are facing unprecedented challenges to their power. 控制着香港的房地产市场以及从手机经销商、巴士公司到超市等诸多行业的商界巨头们,正受到针对其庞大势力的前所未有的挑战。 Parts of their empires are under pressure from Hong Kong#39;s new leader, a reinvigorated anticorruption agency and local residents angered by rising rents and stagnant earnings. Their own advanced ages may also be working against them. 他们执掌的商业帝国中的一部分目前正在承受着压力,这些压力来自香港的新任领导人和一家被重新注入活力的反腐败机构,以及因房租日益上涨和收入停滞不前而愤怒不已的香港市民。这些大亨们老迈的年龄可能也正成为对他们不利的因素。 Last month, two billionaire property developers were charged with bribery by the anticorruption agency, sending shock waves through Hong Kong#39;s business community. Though the city#39;s government has a reputation for coddling powerful local conglomerates, its newly inaugurated chief executive, Leung Chun-ying, says his administration will be different. 上个月,两个身为亿万富翁的房地产开发商被反腐败机构指控行贿,在香港商界引起轩然。尽管香港政府一向有对当地财大气粗的大公司关照有加的名声,但香港新上任的行政长官梁振英说,他领导的这届政府将与以往不同。 #39;I don#39;t need extensive or personal relations with any [business] sector,#39; he said in an interview. #39;I#39;m here to serve the seven million,#39; a reference to all the city#39;s inhabitants. 梁振英在接受采访时说,我不需要与任何商业领域建立大范围的或是私人的关系。我在这里是为700万香港人务的。 Hong Kong#39;s tycoons have survived tough times before. The question is whether they are still up for a fight. Those like Li Ka-shing, who came of age in the boom years after World War II, are in their 80s or older. Some are beset by squabbling heirs and succession battles. 香港的大亨们以往也曾经历过几段艰难时期。问题是他们现在是否仍然还有斗志。李嘉诚这批在二战后经济繁荣时期步入成年的香港大亨们,现在已经年过八旬甚至更老。一些人正受到子女不和以及继承权纠纷的困扰。 Hong Kong#39;s six biggest conglomerates dominate the city and are in turn closely tied to their founders#39; families. They take in at least 23 cents of every dollar that residents spend, controlling Hong Kong#39;s biggest mobile-phone network, its electrical system, its bus system, the vast majority of the buildings making up its iconic skyline, plus two-thirds of its private housing market and 90% of its supermarket sales. By comparison in the U.S., Wal-Mart Stores Inc.岸the world#39;s largest retailer岸accounts for 2.5 cents of every dollar of private consumption. 香港六家最大的企业集团控制着这个城市,它们与这些企业的创始人家族也有着密切关系。香港居民的消费出中,至少有23%流入了这些企业囊中,这些企业集团控制着香港最大的手机网络、电力系统、巴士系统、勾勒出香港标志性天际线的绝大多数建筑,以及三分之二的香港私人住房市场。香港90%的超市销售收入也由这些企业实现。相比之下,世界最大零售商沃尔玛(Wal-Mart Stores Inc.)的在美销售额只占美国私人消费总额的2.5%。 Hong Kong#39;s residents once idolized the tycoons. #39;When I was younger, people called Li Ka-shing #39;Superman,#39; #39; recalls social-worker Kan Chi-wai. Mr. Li, now Asia#39;s richest man, #39;was a legend岸a Hong Kong legend,#39; he says. 香港市民曾经视这些大亨为偶像。社工Kan Chi-wai回忆说,我年轻一些的时候,人们都把李嘉诚称作超人。李嘉诚现在是亚洲最富有的人。他说,李嘉诚是一个传奇,一个香港传奇。 Increasingly, however, these former heroes are blamed for the city#39;s economic woes. Hong Kong has the developed world#39;s highest housing costs and its widest wealth gap. #39;People think, #39;Wow, Hong Kong岸it#39;s so free,#39;#39; says Sin Yat-Ming, of the Chinese University of Hong Kong#39;s business school. #39;But the developers control the whole supply chain in Hong Kong, so it#39;s not easy for a newcomer to break in.#39; 然而,这些曾经的英雄现在因为香港经济上的问题而受到越来越多的责备。香港的房价和贫富差距都堪称世界之最。香港中文大学商学院的Sin Yat-Ming说,人们都会觉得,哇,香港,多自由啊,但是开发商们控制着香港的整个供应链,所以后来者想进入一个新领域并不容易。 The combined wealth of the city#39;s billionaires is equivalent to more than 70% of Hong Kong#39;s GDP. Nos. 2 and 3 by that measure are Lebanon and Russia, with ratios of 33% and 25% respectively, according to Welch Consulting#39;s Stephen Bronars, whose analysis excluded nations with less than a million people. 香港亿万富豪的全部财富相当于香港本地生产总值(GDP)的70%还多。咨询公司Welch Consulting的布罗纳尔斯(Stephen Bronars)说,这方面排名世界第二和第三位的是黎巴嫩和俄罗斯,其本国亿万富豪财富总额分别相当于本国GDP的33%和25%。统计中没有包括人口低于100万的国家和地区。 Yuna Lam, who works in accounting, is one of many white-collar professionals who spend nearly every waking hour in a building or vehicle owned by local conglomerates. In the morning, she wakes up in South Horizons, a seaside apartment complex developed and run by Mr. Li. She travels to work on a bus that#39;s partially owned by Chow Tai Fook Enterprises Ltd. Her office building is partially owned by Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd., which also gets paid when she uses her cellphone. And she shops at Mr. Li#39;s grocery and drug stores. 许多香港白领几乎所有醒着的时间都是在当地大企业所拥有的建筑和车辆中度过,在会计行业工作的Yuna Lam就是其中之一。每天早上,她在李嘉诚开发和运营的海怡半岛(South Horizons)公寓大楼中醒来,乘坐一辆由周大福企业有限公司(Chow Tai Fook Enterprises Ltd.)部分拥有的巴士去上班。她所在写字楼的部分股权归新鸿基地产发展有限公司(Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd.)所有,当她使用手机时,有一部分话费也会流入新鸿基会囊中。她还在李嘉诚开的杂货店和药店购物。 Ms. Lam#39;s case may seem extreme, but she says she#39;s not unusual: #39;There are many Hong Kong people like me,#39; she says. Yuna Lam的例子可能显得有点极端,但她说自己并不是特例。Yuna Lam说,在香港有许多像我这样的人。 Among the city#39;s six dominant conglomerates, three were started by boot-strapping mainland emigrants: Mr. Li#39;s Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd., HK -1.43% Sun Hung Kai Properties and Chow Tai Fook Enterprises. Three others date back to colonial-era concessions, including Swire Pacific Ltd., HK -1.43% Wheelock HK -1.43% amp; Co. and Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd. 在香港六家占主导地位的大企业中,有三家是由白手起家的大陆移民创办的,分别是:李嘉诚的长江实业(Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd.),新鸿基地产和周大福。另外三家则是在香港的殖民地时期享有特许权的企业,这三家公司是太古股份有限公司(Swire Pacific Ltd.)、会德丰有限公司(Wheelock amp; Co.)和怡和控股(Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd.)。 Jardine Matheson says its businesses constantly have to invest and improve to meet Hong Kong#39;s competitive challenges. All the other companies declined to comment or didn#39;t respond to requests for comment. 怡和控股说,为应对香港市场上的竞争,公司旗下的企业不得不持续进行投资和提高。其它公司要么拒绝,要么未回应置评要求。 Hong Kong#39;s conglomerates have long depended on government concessions, and their leaders have been known for their close ties with top officials. That perception was reinforced last month, when Hong Kong#39;s independent anticorruption agency charged Thomas and Raymond Kwok─billionaire brothers who are among Hong Kong#39;s most powerful developers─in a case that involves .5 million in bribes to the government#39;s former No. 2 official. 香港大型企业集团长期以来一直依赖政府的优惠政策,这些企业的领导人与香港高官的密切关系也是众所周知的。外界的这一看法上个月进一步得到了加强:香港独立的反腐败机构指控郭炳江(Thomas Kwok)和郭炳联(Raymond Kwok)涉嫌贿赂港府前“二把手”,涉案金额450万美元。亿万富豪郭氏兄弟都属于香港最有权势的房地产开发商。 The Kwok brothers control Sun Hung Kai Properties, the world#39;s second-largest property developer by stock-market value. They have also built some of Hong Kong#39;s most famous buildings, including its tallest tower. Now, if convicted of the bribery charges, they could face several years in prison. Raymond Kwok said at a news conference that he is innocent. Thomas Kwok has declined to comment. 郭氏兄弟掌控着新鸿基地产发展有限公司,这是按市值计全球第二大房地产开发企业。此外,他们还修建了香港一些最有名的建筑,包括香港最高的写字楼。如果因贿赂指控被定罪,他们可能会被判几年监禁。郭炳联曾在一个新闻发布会上说,自己是无辜的。郭炳江一直拒绝发表。 The city#39;s anticorruption agency has suffered a series of embarrassments, including the conviction of several of its investigators for coaching a witness to provide false evidence. 香港反腐机构经历了一系列尴尬事件,包括几名调查员因教唆人提供伪而被定罪等。 But now it is investigating the city#39;s former chief executive, Donald Tsang, for allegedly traveling on yachts and private jets owned by top business executives and for what appears to have been a sweetheart deal with a local mogul for a penthouse apartment. 不过,该机构目前正在调查香港前特首曾荫权(Donald Tsang)。调查的起因是有人指称他曾乘坐企业高管的游艇和私人飞机,以及他似乎就一套顶层大宅与当地一位大亨达成了一笔对自己有利的交易。 Mr. Tsang admitted to accepting the jet travel and has given up the apartment. He delivered two tearful apologies for disappointing the public. He hasn#39;t admitted wrongdoing. The agency says nothing has changed in its approach to corruption. 曾荫权承认,自己确曾接受过乘坐私人飞机的邀请,并且已放弃了那套公寓。他为自己让民众失望而两度致歉落泪,但他们没有承认自己存在过失。香港反腐机构说,它对于腐败行为的态度没有任何改变。 Mr. Leung and the anticorruption agency have been backed in their recent efforts by Beijing, which is apprehensive about the rising discontent in Hong Kong. The Chinese government supported the selection of Mr. Leung, and Chinese President Hu Jintao instructed him to make resolving social tensions his first priority. At Mr. Leung#39;s inauguration earlier this summer, Mr. Hu said social conflicts #39;could affect Hong Kong#39;s long-term development.#39; 梁振英和香港反腐机构近来的行动得到了北京的持,后者对于香港民众日益高涨的不满情绪感到担忧。中国政府持梁振英成为香港特首,国家主席胡锦涛指示梁振英,要把解决社会矛盾作为首要任务。胡锦涛今年初夏在梁振英的就职典礼上说,社会矛盾可能会影响香港的长远发展。 Beijing, which is also grappling with corruption and inequality at home, wants a stable Hong Kong. In five years, residents there will directly elect their leader for the first time, and angry voters could choose someone unappealing to China. 正在奋力解决内地腐败和贫富不均问题的北京希望看到一个稳定的香港。五年后,香港市民将首次直接选举领导人,那些愤怒的选民或许会选出一个并不让中国政府称心如意的特首。 Much of the current public anger can be traced back to land. At the moment, just 7% of Hong Kong#39;s 430 square miles is used for residential purposes. Housing prices have risen 82% since late 2008, but incomes have stagnated for a decade. Besides limiting the new supply, analysts say, the government has been selling huge plots and requiring land premiums to be paid up front in massive lump sums, an approach that favors large developers. Currently, just three companies control 65% of the private residential market, according to brokerage CLSA. 眼下香港民众的愤怒情绪很大程度上可以追根溯源到土地问题。香港陆地面积为430平方英里(合1,103平方公里),其中仅有7%用作居民住宅用地。2008年底以来,香港房价大涨82%,但居民收入10年来却止步不前。分析人士说,香港政府采取了一系列对大型房地产开发商有利的措施,如限制新的土地供应,一直在出售大面积的地块,并要求开发商预先付巨额补地价。据经纪公司里昂券(CLSA)统计,香港目前65%的私人住宅市场控制在三家房地产公司手中。 Keith Kerr, who heads the Real Estate Developer#39;s Association of Hong Kong, says the government, which sets land-supply levels, bears the responsibility for helping to fuel the prices, not the developers. #39;It#39;s easy to shoot the messenger,#39; he says. 香港地产建设商会(Real Estate Developer#39;s Association of Hong Kong)会长简基富(Keith Kerr)说,香港政府决定着土地供应量的多寡,为助推房价担责的应是香港政府,而不应是开发商。简基富说,人们很容易向信使开射击。 In February, the government said it would begin selling more land and offering smaller plots, allowing more medium-size developers to compete. Mr. Leung also says he will open up land supply, potentially pushing down prices. Chinese developers are moving in too, making the market more competitive. 香港政府今年2月说,将开始出售更多土地,并且会推出面积较小的地块,让更多中等规模的开发商参与竞争。梁振英也说,他将开放土地供应,这样做可能会打压房价。中国内地开发商也在进入香港房地产市场,给香港楼市带来更多竞争。 Pong Yat-Ming is a one-man protest movement against the tycoons. The 38-year-old teacher bicycles to work because the tycoons own the city buses. He avoids ParknShop and Wellcome, the two dominant supermarket chains. His one concession is electricity. #39;People are angry,#39; says Mr. Pong. #39;They feel the super-companies have gotten too powerful, they control too much of our lives.#39; 庞一鸣(Pong Yat-Ming)发起了他个人对香港大亨的抗议运动。这位38岁的教师骑自行车去上班,因为香港巴士归大亨们所有。他不去百佳(ParknShop)和惠康(ParknShop)这两家香港主要的连锁超市。用电是他的一个让步。庞一鸣说,人们有怨气,他们觉得那些超级企业太强大了,控制了我们生活的太多方面。 /201208/197518

Steven Fink recently received an unsolicited email containing nude photos of a woman whose jilted ex-boyfriend wanted to embarrass her. The guy presumably hoped these private photos would go viral online, and now countless strangers are obliging him in his mean-spirited campaign.史蒂芬#8226;芬克(Steven Fink)最近收到一封陌生邮件,里头有一名女子的几张裸照,遭到这名女子抛弃的前男友想羞辱她。那个人想来是希望这些私密照片能在网上广为传播;而现在无数陌生人也确实在充当帮凶,参与到他这个居心不良的行为当中。In the pre-Internet age, the dumped boyfriend may have expressed his anger by throwing darts at her photo. These days, however, the outlets for vindictiveness have multiplied almost to infinity -- and your reputation is more fragile than ever.在互联网时代之前,男人被甩后可能会对着前女友的照片掷飞镖,以此泄愤。但如今,发泄的途径近乎无穷无尽──人们的名誉变得前所未有的易受攻击。 /201005/103656


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