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楼主:平安指南 时间:2019年11月21日 10:47:03 点击:0 回复:0
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Desperate times for the Republicans call for desperate measures. In any other situation, it is impossible to imagine figures such as Mitt Romney or Jeb Bush endorsing Ted Cruz as the party’s nominee. Yet they feel Donald Trump’s scorched earth advance leaves them no choice. They calculate that Mr Cruz is the only candidate left with a chance of stopping Mr Trump from winning a majority of delegates before the final primary in June. 共和党正处于非常时期,因此需要采取非常措斀?本来,在其他任何情况下,都无法想象米特#8226;罗姆Mitt Romney)或杰#8226;布什(Jeb Bush)之类的人物会持特德#8226;克鲁Ted Cruz)作为本党总统候选人。可是现在,他们觉得唐纳#8226;特朗Donald Trump)势如破竹的攻势已让他们别无选择。他们盘算着,有机会阻止特朗普在6月预选结束之前赢得多数代表持的候选人,只剩下克鲁兹了With either as nominee, Republican leaders have all but written off hope of recapturing the White House. Going with Mr Cruz would at least enable them to keep their party intact, albeit at the risk of a third-party candidacy by an enraged Mr Trump. Lindsey Graham, the senator from South Carolina, likened it to a choice between being shot or poisoned. He too has swallowed the hemlock. Not one of Mr Cruz’s new allies believes he should be president, or that he would stand much chance of winning. They are playing a different game. For their party’s future, they would rather lose with Mr Cruz than with Mr Trump. 无论特朗普还是克鲁兹成为总统候选人,共和党都基本不可能再夺回白宫。持克鲁兹至少能保持共和党的完整,只不过被激怒的特朗普还可能以第三方候选人身份参选。南卡罗来纳州的参议员林#8226;格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)把这比作在被杀与被毒死之间做选择。他自己也已下了毒药。在克鲁兹的新持者中,没有人认为他应该当总统,也没有人认为他胜选的可能性很大。他们现在玩的是一种不同的游戏。为了共和党的未来,他们就是输也宁愿和克鲁兹一起,而不愿与特朗普在一起There is not much chance that the last minute ploy will work. With 29 states having aly voted, Mr Trump has gathered about 60 per cent of the delegates he needs to push him over the top the magic number is 1,237. If Mr Trump crossed that threshold, there would be no stopping him. 这种“临时抱佛脚”的策略不太可能奏效。目前已9个州完成初选,特朗普已拿到赢得提名所需选举人票数的0%。那个可以将他推向巅峰的神奇数字237,如果特朗普跨过了这个门槛,就没有什么能阻止他了If he fell shy, however, it would open the door to selecting another candidate at the Republican convention in July. Many delegates are only “boundto vote for their candidate on the first ballot. The theory is that enough of Mr Trump’s delegates could be induced, or cajoled, to switching horses on the second or third round. It is a perversely negative strategy. Polls say that John Kasich, the governor of Ohio, is the only one of the three remaining Republicans who could defeat Hillary Clinton. His pragmatic record, and Midwestern blue collar roots, have broad appeal. Yet the logic behind the Cruz endorsements would require Mr Kasich to drop out of the race. His presence continues to split the anti-Trump vote. 如果他拿不到这么多选举人票月份共和党全国代表大会就有机会选出另一个候选人。很多代表只是“不得不”在第一轮投票中持他们的候选人。理论上讲,不管是劝还是哄,应该能够引导足够多的持特朗普的代表,在第二轮或第三轮投票中转向持其他候选人。这是异常消极的策略。民调显示,在共和党仅存的三名总统竞选者中,俄亥俄州州长约#8226;卡西John Kasich)是唯一有可能战胜希拉里#8226;克林Hillary Clinton)的人。他出身于中西部的蓝领阶层的,作风务实,拥有广泛的号召力。但按照一众共和党人持克鲁兹的逻辑,卡西奇就得退出竞选。他的存在进一步分散了反特朗普的选票It is also a dangerous tactic. Mr Cruz would be the most extreme nominee since Barry Goldwater in 1964 and in many respects more so. Among other policies, he would return to the gold standard, end the US Federal Reserve’s independence and abolish the Internal Revenue Service. On all three he is to the right of Mr Trump. 这也是一个危险的策略。克鲁兹如获提名,将964年参选的巴里#8226;戈德华特(Barry Goldwater)以来最极端的候选人,而且在很多方面比戈德华特更极端。按照他主张的政策,他将回归金本位,结束美联Fed)的独立地位,并撤销美国国税局(IRS)。就这三方面来说,他比特朗普还要右倾In spite of his own half-Cuban background and Canadian birth, he too would build a wall with Mexico and expel the estimated 11m illegal Hispanic immigrants from the US. He would also match Mr Trump’s draconian stance on Muslims. Following this week’s terrorist attacks in Brussels, Mr Cruz said he would empower US law enforcement to “patrol and secure Muslim neighbourhoods before they become radicalised 尽管拥有部分古巴血统并在加拿大出生,克鲁兹也将在美国和墨西哥之间建一堵墙,并把约1100万非法拉美裔移民驱逐出境。他在对穆斯林的严厉态度上也跟特朗普不相上下。本周布鲁塞尔发生恐怖袭击之后,克鲁兹表示,他将授权美国执法机构“在穆斯林社区巡逻和维持治安,防止他们变成激进分子”It is hard to think of a step more likely to inflame sentiment or to think of a nominee more likely to discredit the Republican brand than Mr Cruz. Except for Mr Trump, that is. Projections suggest Mr Trump will win a majority or large plurality of delegates. Were he to be denied the crown, the outcome could be combustible. Mr Trump has “predictedriots were that to happen. 想不出还有什么政策比这更能激起民愤,还有什么样的候选人比克鲁兹更可能败坏共和党的名声——也就只有特朗普了。据预测,特朗普将赢得多数或相对多数的选举人票。如果不让他获得提名,后果可能很麻烦。特朗普曾“预言”那将引发骚乱Mr Trump’s nomination would damage the Republican party and the US. The same applies to Mr Cruz. Republican elders bear heavy responsibility for what is happening. There are no good options left. Rather than pick between two unpalatable losers, they should take another look at the merits of Mr Kasich. It is far better to go down for a cause in which you at least believe. 特朗普获得提名对共和党和美国都有害。克鲁兹也是如此。共和党大佬们对当前局面负有重大责任。没有什么好的选择了。与其在两个都令人难以接受的失败者中选一个,不如再考虑一下卡西奇的优点。带着一种你至少相信的主张参加竞选而失败,无疑要好得多。来 /201603/433288The tortuous war against Isis is taking a treacherous turn. Two years after the militant Sunni group declared its brutal caliphate, the US and its allies in Iraq and Syria have begun a two-front offensive to dislodge the militant group from its strongholds in the Iraqi city of Falluja and Raqqa in Syria. But, while the campaign has made progress, the composition of the forces leading the battles in the two Arab Sunni cities is intensifying sectarian and ethnic tensions in the bitterly divided nations and beyond. The danger is that the US-led action will, ultimately, help Isis gain legitimacy as a defender of Sunnis even if it cedes territory.打击“伊斯兰国ISIS)的艰难战事正遭遇危险的转向。在这个逊尼派武装组织宣告成立其残暴的“哈里发国”两年后,美国及其在伊拉克和叙利亚的盟友在两条战线上对ISIS发起攻势,试图将该组织驱离其在伊拉克城市费卢Falluja)和叙利亚城市拉卡(Raqqa)的大本营。但是,尽管这场战役取得进展,但主导向这两个逊尼派城市进攻的各派军事力量的构成,正在加剧这两个尖锐分裂国家乃至整个地区的宗派和民族关系紧张。当前的危险在于,美国领导的行动最终将帮助ISIS获得作为逊尼派守卫者的合法性——即便ISIS不得不放弃地盘。Heightened fears in Syria, Iraq and the wider region about the offensive in Falluja and Raqqa bode ill for the long-term fight against the group. With western help channelled to militias beholden to the Shia regime in Iran and close to Tehran’s allies in Damascus, the fight is widely seen in the region as nakedly sectarian.叙利亚、伊拉克以及整个地区对费卢杰和拉卡攻势的严重担忧,预示着对ISIS长期作战的前景不妙。随着西方援助流向听命于伊朗什叶派政权、且与德黑兰在大马士革的盟友关系密切的民兵组织,这场战斗正被整个地区普遍视为一场裸的宗派之战。The US-backed offensive is the first of its kind since the American-led anti-Isis campaign began soon after the group swept into Iraq. America has long sought to avoid providing air support for Shia and Kurdish militias to fight in two Sunni areas at once: when Baghdad launched the battle to retake the city of Tikrit from Isis in March last year, Washington refrained from providing air strikes in support of the estimated 30,000 Shia fighters until the battle stalled three weeks later.ISIS横扫伊拉克后不久,美国就领导了打击该组织的军事行动,但像这一次这样由美国提供战场援的攻势还属首次。长期以来,美国一直试图避免向在这两个逊尼派区域作战的什叶派和库尔德武装力量同时提供空中援:当巴格达方面去月发起从ISIS手中收复提克里特(Tikrit)的攻势时,华盛顿方面未向万名什叶派武装人员提供空中打击援——直至三周后战局陷入僵持。The US is presenting the two offensives as led by inclusive and national coalitions. In the region, however, sectarian polarisation is only growing. Arabic media outlets which tend to echo Sunni political views such as London-based al-Hayat newspaper, have focused coverage of Falluja on reports that Major General Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian spymaster, was leading the battle along with other militias beholden to Tehran. Al-Araby published a cartoon depicting American helicopters holding the people of Raqqa hostage beside an image of an Isis member doing the same to a condemned man.美国把当前的这两场攻势说成是由包容和全球性的联盟所领导。然而,该地区的宗派分化只是在加剧。倾向于附和逊尼派政治观点的阿拉伯媒体——如总部设在伦敦的《生活报Al-Hayat)——在对费卢杰战况的报道中聚焦于伊朗间谍机构负责人卡西#8226;索莱马尼(Qassem Soleimani)少将与听命于德黑兰的其他民兵组织共同领导着这场战斗。Al-Araby刊发的一幅漫画相当说明问题,画中美军直升机将拉卡市民挟持为人质,旁边是一名ISIS成员准备对一名死刑犯动手的画面。More significant is a report from US-backed anti-Isis activist organisation, Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently . It announced last week that the fact that the battle in the city is being led by the People’s Protection s (YPG) with ties to the Kurdistan Workersparty, the armed separatist group based in Turkey is pushing residents to join forces with Isis. The YPG is seen as close to the Syrian regime and was allegedly engaged in displacement of Arab families in northern Syria, which Amnesty International said could amount to war crimes. The fact that a US-backed group is criticising the role of the Pentagon-backed YPG against a group that killed some of its colleagues is remarkable.意义更重大的是美国持的反ISIS活动组织“拉卡正被无声屠宰Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently)发布的一份报告。最近该组织宣称,拉卡的战斗正由库尔德人民保卫军(YPG)打头阵,而这个民兵组织与总部设在土耳其的武装分离组织库尔德工人Kurdistan Workers party)有关联,这个事实正在促使拉卡市民加入ISIS阵营。YPG被视为与叙利亚政权关系密切,据称该组织还参与了在叙利亚北部驱逐阿拉伯家庭的行动,大赦国际(Amnesty International)称这些行为可能构成战争罪。让人深思的是,一个美国持的组织居然批评五角大楼持的YPG打击曾经杀死其部分成员的ISIS。Such divisions offer Isis an opportunity to present itself as a custodian of the Sunni especially in Iraq, where it has established itself as the only Sunni militant group able to stand up to militias supporting the Shia-dominated government. The fear is that a similar scenario will play out in Syria in the next few years; primarily in places such as Raqqa, where local resistance has been weak.这些分裂为ISIS提供了把自己包装成逊尼派卫士的机会——特别是在伊拉克,ISIS将自己塑造成了唯一具有战斗力的逊尼派武装组织,能够抗衡那些持什叶派主导政府的民兵组织。令人担忧的是,未来几年类似的一幕将在叙利亚上演,尤其是在地方抵抗力量薄弱的拉卡等地。The sectarian situation emerging in Falluja and Raqqa, and the responses across the region, is one the US has long sought to avoid. It began training Sunni forces to retake cities such as Mosul and Raqqa, an effort that faded when forces in Baghdad resisted a bill to establish a national guard including Sunni units. But with this campaign, backed by groups abhorred by residents of the two cities, it seems to have privileged a tactical victory against Isis over a strategic one.费卢杰、拉卡加剧的宗派冲突以及在整个地区引发的反应,是美国长期力图避免的局面。美国最初曾训练逊尼派武装力量,以求收复苏尔、拉卡等城市,但在建立一包括逊尼派部队的国民警卫队的议案遭巴格达当局抵制后,这方面的努力不了了之。但从目前的战役(由这两个城市居民痛恨的组织参与)可以看出,在打击ISIS方面,美国似乎更迫切希望获得一场战术而非战略上的胜利。It looks likely to provide Isis with a gift it has long wanted, especially in Syria: creating for ordinary people the perception that their choice is between its own jihadis and militias they see as invaders.这有可能为ISIS送上一份其期待已久的礼物——尤其是在叙利亚:让普通民众感觉自己要在ISIS的圣战分子与他们视为入侵者的武装分子之间作出选择。来 /201606/448010

Donald Trump has agreed to a million settlement to end the fraud cases against his now-defunct Trump University, New Yorks attorney general said - 纽约州检察长称,特朗普同意500万美元的和解金,以了结关于现已倒闭的特朗普大学涉嫌欺诈的官司。A move that the president-elect said Saturday was done in order to ;focus on the country.;侯任总统特朗9日表示,此举是为了让自己专注于国事。The settlement likely means that Trump will avoid becoming possibly the first sitting president to testify in open court.这笔和解金可能意味着特朗普能避免成为第一个出庭作的在职总统。New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman called the settlement on Friday ;a major victory for the over 6,000 victims of his fraudulent university.; 纽约州检察长埃里施奈德曼18日称,这笔和解金000多名特朗普大学受害者的重大胜利。Lawyers involved in the cases say the settlement applies to all three lawsuits against Trump University including two cases filed in California.本案律师称,和解金是用于和解针对特朗普大学的3起诉讼案,其中两起是在加州立案的。Trump commented on the settlement via Twitter on Saturday, telling his 15 million followers that the only ;bad thing about winning the presidency; was not being able to fight the ;long but winning; Trump University trial.特朗9日在推特上就此事发表,他500万粉丝表示,成为总统唯一的坏事儿就是不能打这场漫长但必胜的官司。The trial for one of the cases had been scheduled to start Nov. 28三起诉讼案中的一起原定于118日开庭审理。The million figure will be split among the students who sued, minus the legal fees.在减去诉讼费后,这笔和解费将被给分配给上诉的学员。Trump will also pay up to million in penalties to the state of New York, Schneiderman said.施奈德曼称,特朗普还将向纽约州付多00万美金的罚款。Former students of Trump University say the school fraudulently misrepresented what students would be taught and falsely claimed that instructors were handpicked by Trump.特朗普大学原来的学生称,学校虚假描述授课内容,且谎称老师是由特朗普钦定的。Trumps attorneys last week asked the judge to delay the trial until after the inauguration, citing the ;critical and all-consuming; work the president-elect has to do before he takes office in January.特朗普的律师上周表示,特朗普在明月就职之前有很多重要且耗时的工作要做,因此请求法官将庭审推迟至其就职后。The deal doesnt require Trump to acknowledge wrongdoing. 这份和解协议不要求特朗普承认行为违法。Trump has strongly denied the allegations and said during the campaign that he wouldnt settle.特朗普强烈否认诈骗指控,并在竞选期间称他不会和解;We are pleased to announce the complete resolution of all litigation involving Trump University,; the Trump organization said in a statement on Friday. 特朗普团8日在一份声明中称,我们很高兴地宣布,关于特朗普大学的诉讼案得到了彻底解决;While we have no doubt that Trump University would have prevailed at trial based on the merits of this case, resolution of these matters allows President-Elect Trump to devote his full attention to the important issues facing our great nation.;尽管我们相信如果进入法律程序,基于案情特朗普大学将会打赢官司,但是现在和解能让这位候任总统全神贯注于我们伟大国家面临的重要问题。During the campaign, Trump said Gonzalo Curiel, the federal judge in the San Diego case, was hostile to him.特朗普在竞选期间称,审理圣地亚哥特朗普大学案的联邦法官贡萨库列尔对自己存有敌意;I believe he happens to be Spanish, which is fine. 特朗普今月时曾表示,我相信他碰巧是西班牙人,这没关系。He is Hispanic, which is fine. 他是西班牙裔,这没关系。And we havent asked for recusal, which we may do,; Trump said in May. 我们没有要求取消这位法官的资格,我们本可以这样的;But we have a judge who is very hostile.;然而,我们碰到了一位充满敌意的法官。来 /201611/479823

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