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E-commerce电子商务Tencent’s worth腾讯的价值A Chinese internet firm finds a better way to make money一家中国互联网公司找到了更好的赚钱方式Sep 21st 2013 | SHANGHAI |From the print editionIS TENCENT one of the world’s greatest internet firms? There are grounds for scepticism. The Chinese gaming and social-media firm started in the same way many local internet firms have: by copying Western success. QQ, its instant-messaging service, was a clone of ICQ, an Israeli invention acquired by AOL of America. And unlike global internet giants such as Google and Twitter, Tencent still makes its money in its protected home market.腾讯是世界上最大的互联网公司之一吗?有持怀疑态度的理由。这个中国游戏和社交媒体公司跟许多本土互联网公司一样以同样的方式起步:通过抄袭西方的成功模式。腾讯的即时通讯务QQ是一家被美国AOL收购的以色列发明的ICQ的翻版。而区别于谷歌和twitter等全球互联网巨头,腾讯仍然只在受保护的本土市场圈钱。Yet the Chinese firm’s stockmarket valuation briefly crossed the 0 billion mark this week for the first time. Given that the valuation of Facebook, the world’s leading social-media firm, itself crossed that threshold only a few weeks ago, it is reasonable to wonder whether Tencent is worth so much. However, Tencent now has bigger revenues and profits than Facebook. In the first half of this year Tencent enjoyed revenues of .5 billion and gross profits of .5 billion, whereas Facebook saw revenues of .3 billion and gross profits of 5m.然而,这家中国公司的股市估值这周首次超过了1000亿美元大关。鉴于全球领先的社交媒体公司facebook的估值只在几周之前才跨过这道门槛,所以换衣腾讯的市值是有道理的。然而,腾讯现在的收入和利润都比facebook多。今年前半年腾讯营收达到45亿美元,而总利润达到25亿美元,而facebook营收只有33亿美元,总利润只有9.35亿美元。The Chinese firm’s market value reflects the phenomenal rise in its share price. A study out this week from the Boston Consulting Group found that Tencent had the highest shareholder total return (share-price appreciation plus dividends) of any large firm globally from 2008 to 2012—topping Amazon and even Apple.这家中国公司的市场价值反映在其股价的惊人崛起上。这周波士顿咨询集团的一项研究发现,自2008年到2012年,在全球所有大公司中,腾讯拥有最高的股东总回报(股价升值加上分红),超过了亚马逊甚至苹果。Tencent has created a better business model than its Western peers. Many internet firms build a customer base by giving things away, be they search results or social-networking tools. They then seek to monetise their users, usually turning to online advertising. Google is a glorious example. Other firms try to make e-commerce work. But as the case of revenue-rich but profit-poor Amazon suggests, this can also be a hard slog.腾讯比起西方同行创造了一个更好的商业模式。许多互联网公司基于送给人们东西作为搜索结果或者社交工具来让其成为消费者。他们接着寻求在他们用户身上套现,通常是提供在线广告。谷歌就是一个光辉典范。其他公司尝试电子商务活动。但是收入丰富但是利润甚微的亚马逊表明这也是一条艰难的路。Tencent does give its services away: QQ is used by 800m people, and its WeChat social-networking app (which initially resembled America’s WhatsApp) has several hundred million users. What makes it different from Western rivals is the way it uses these to peddle online games and other revenue-raising offerings.腾讯也给用户提供务,有8亿人使用QQ,其微信社交应用(最初类似于Whatsapp)有几百万用户。其区别于西方对手的招数在于使用这些工具兜售在线游戏以及其他增加收入的务。Once users are hooked on a popular game, Tencent then persuades them to pay for “value-added services” such as fancy weapons, snazzy costumes for their avatars and online VIP rooms. Whereas its peers are still making most of their money from advertising, Fathom China, a research firm, reckons Tencent gets 80% of its revenues from such kit (see chart).一旦用户迷上一个受欢迎的游戏,腾讯就会劝说他们为增值务付钱,比如更花哨的武器,他们卡通形象时髦的衣还有在线VIP房间。鉴于其通航扔人通过广告赚钱,一家调查公司Fathom China认为腾讯通过上述工具的收益占到总收益的80%。This year China has overtaken America to become the world’s biggest e-commerce market, in terms of sales. It is also now the biggest market for smartphones. This means it may soon have the world’s dominant market in “m-commerce”, purchases on mobile devices.今年中国超过美国成为世界上销售额最大的电子商务市场。现在中国也是世界上最大的智能手机市场。这意味着中国可能很快成为世界上移动付市场的主导市场。Tencent’s main rivals in Chinese m-commerce are Baidu, which dominates search on desktop computers (helped by the government’s suppression of Google) and Alibaba, an e-commerce giant now preparing for a huge share offering. All three have gone on acquisition sprees, in an attempt to lead the market. The big worry for investors is the cost of this arms race.腾讯在中国移动付市场的最大对手是百度,主导了桌面电脑搜索市场(受益于中国政府对谷歌的镇压),还有阿里巴巴,现在准备上市的电商巨头。这三个公司正在进行疯狂收购,试图主导市场。投资者最大的担忧就是这场军备竞赛的成本。Alibaba recently invested 0m in AutoNavi, an online-mapping firm, and nearly 0m in Sina Weibo, China’s equivalent of Twitter. Baidu has been even more ambitious, spending .85 billion to buy 91 Wireless, the country’s biggest third-party store for smartphone apps, and 0m for PPS, an online- firm.阿里巴巴最近向高德地图投资3亿美元,向新浪微投资6亿美元。百度更有野心,花费18.5亿美元购买了中国最大的第三方智能手机软件商店91无线,同时花费3.7亿美元购买了在线视频公司PPS。Tencent may have an edge over its two rivals in m-commerce because of the wild popularity of WeChat, which is used on mobile phones. But to ensure it stays in the race, it is also spending heavily. On September 16th it said it will spend 8m to acquire a big stake in Sogou, an online-search firm; it plans to merge its own flagging search engine (aptly named Soso) into the venture. It had previously invested in Didi Dache, China’s largest taxi-hailing app, and is rumoured to be interested in online travel and dating firms too.腾讯在移动付方面比起它的两个竞争对手可能有优势,由于微信在智能手机上的流行。但是为了保其留在竞争中,腾讯也花费重金。9月16日,腾讯表示它将花费4.48亿美元购买在线搜索公司搜一大笔股份,计划将其萎靡不振的搜索引擎搜搜合并到合资企业中。此前,腾讯投资中国最大的打车应用滴滴打车,传言对在线旅游和约会公司也有兴趣。The three Goliaths are buying up innovative firms because they are too big and bureaucratic to create things themselves, mutter some entrepreneurs (presumably not those being bought out handsomely). A more pressing worry for Tencent’s shareholders is that its lavish spending, on top of heavy investment in improving its unimpressive e-commerce offerings, will eat into profits. Worse, the m-commerce arms race risks distracting it from gaming and value-added services, the cash cows that are paying for everything else. A 0 billion valuation might then seem too rich.一些企业家说到,这三个巨头购买创新型企业因为他们太大太官僚,很难自己创造事物。大概不是出资那些被收购的公司之口。腾讯股东更担心的是公司花费大量资金,投资改善其不起眼的电子商务产品会侵吞利润。更糟糕的是,移动付市场的军备竞赛风险分散了其在游戏和增值务商的注意力,公司正在投资其他东西。1000亿美元的估值可能太高了。 /201309/257971

The economics of equity research股票研究经济学Analyse this分析分析The old model of stockmarket research is changing股市研究的旧模式正在改变。Sep 21st 2013 |From the print editionEQUITY research is meant to benefit both providers and recipients. It ought to help investors to allocate money more profitably. And the banks that give their clients free access to research hope that it will help them generate revenues from equity trading. But neither party is much satisfied by the conventional model.股票研究本应发行者和股东双双受益。应该帮助投资者更有利润的分配资金。为客户提供免费研究报告的希望这会帮助客户从股权交易中去的收益。但是双方对常规的模式都不满意。Start with the banks. A fall in trading revenues makes the economics of providing research less attractive. Between and 2013, total equity-trading commissions paid to brokers fell from .9 billion to .3 billion in America, and from euros 4.2 billion (.6 billion) to euros 3 billion in Europe, according to Greenwich Associates, a consultancy. The rise of passive investing and the sp of algorithmic trading have both reduced margins and dampened demand for research produced by and for humans.交易收入的下降使得经济学研究逐渐丧失吸引力。这从开始。根据咨询机构Greenwich Associates的数据,在年到2013年之间,在美国总股本交易中付给经纪人的佣金从139亿美元跌到了93亿美元,欧洲则从42亿欧元跌到了30亿欧元。被动投资的兴起以及算法交易的扩张都使得研究资料的利润率下降,需求也有所放缓。Nomura recently slashed its equity-research division to focus on its electronic-trading business, Instinet. Other banks are also cutting back. Global sell-side research budgets fell from a 2007 peak of .2 billion to just .8 billion in 2013, according to Frost Consulting. Sector coverage has contracted: banks now concentrate on large-cap sectors like oil, where trading volumes and revenue potential are higher.野村最近缩减了其股票研究部门,将注意力集中于电子交易公司Instinet。其他也正在削减研究部门。根据弗罗斯特咨询公司的数据,全球出售方的研究经费已经从2007年峰值的82亿美元降到了2013年的48亿美元。研究数据的行业覆盖率叶缩减了,现在集中在像原油等大宗商品行业,这些行业的交易量和收益潜力较高。Work has been shovelled to cheaper places to save cash. Much of Citigroup’s American equity coverage is now produced in Buffalo, New York. Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan have sent research work as far afield as India. Low-value-added tasks like data-crunching are not the only jobs being shipped out, claims Marc Vollenweider at Evalueserve, an outsourcing specialist. This process has its limits, however: client meetings still wholly happen face to face.工作都转移到了成本更低的地方以节省现金。花旗的美国股票报道现在在纽约的布法罗发出。德意志和JP根已经将研究工作转移到了印度。专业外包公司Evalueserve的Marc Vollenweider表示,不仅仅是像数据运算这些低附加值的任务被转移。但是,这个过程也有其局限性,客户会议仍然全部为面对面会议。The attitude of asset managers is also hardening. With research expenses “bundled” into commissions for executing trades, brokers tend to flood their clients with research reports in order to try to grab a larger slice of trading revenues. Asset managers leave most of them un. A survey by Britain’s CFA Society found that only 22% of its members thought this model best serves the interests of investors.资产管理公司的态度也在变硬。随着研究经费“捆绑”到执行交易的佣金中,经纪人往往给他们客户提供大量的研究报告,以此在交易收益中获得更大的比例。资产管理公司的这些材料大都没读过。英国CFA协会进行的一项调查发现,只有22%的成员认为这种模式最符合投资者的利益。Independent research outfits offer an alternative. Though small, their share of the “research vote”, an estimate of market share produced by Greenwich Associates, has grown since 2011. They are untainted by the conflicts of interest that bedevil banks offering research on clients, and that led to a 2003 settlement enforcing stricter separation of investment banking and research in America. In Europe “commission sharing agreements” have grown in popularity since they were introduced in 2003. These unbundle brokers’ commissions into costs for executing trades and costs for research, which clients can use to buy services from third parties.独立研究团队是另一个选择。尽管规模很小,但是据Greenwich Associates的市场份额数据,他们的“研究选择”比例自2011年来有所增长。他们受到长期困扰给客户提供调查报告的利益冲突的影响,这导致了在2003年美国出台了针对投资和研究机构更严格的分离。在欧洲,“佣金分成协议”自从2003年引入以来,已经变得越来越流行。这些自由的经纪人的佣金用于执行交易和研究的花费,客户可以用来从第三方购买务。Independent providers do not have an answer to every problem: making research on smaller firms profitable is a perennial issue. But they do offer radically different services from the banks’ unimaginative valuation models. Bespoke services are in demand. Hedge funds now use research dollars to pay for ground surveillance on the progress of mining or oil projects in Africa, in order to value them better. Others take to the sky. RS Metrics, a satellite-intelligence provider, has reported strong demand from the financial sector for its aerial-imaging services. Some funds even hire former intelligence agents, from firms like Business Intelligence Advisors, to test whether corporate bosses are massaging the truth in investor meetings.独立研究提供者不想回答所有问题:研究小公司获利是一个长期的问题。但是,他们确实提供区别于缺乏想象力的估值模型之外的完全不同的务。定制务是有需求的。现在,对冲基金运用研究资金付非洲矿业或石油项目进展的地面监测,为了更好的对这些项目进行估值。其他采取空中监视。RS Metrics是一个卫星情报提供商,该公司表示金融公司对他们的空中成像务需求强劲。一些基金甚至从类似商业情报顾问的公司雇佣了前情报人员考查公司老板们有没有在投资者会议上说实话。Old-style research is not about to die. Big banks retain 56.2% of the “research vote” (smaller brokers take another large chunk). Bank bosses still value the support research analysts can give their profitable investment-banking and corporate-advisory businesses. But with budgets under pressure and competition growing, the market is becoming more efficient.旧式研究不会消失。大的“研究选择”比例仍然在56.2%(稍小的经纪人占了剩下的比例)。老板仍人重视持研究分析给自己投资和咨询公司业务带来利润。但是预算压力以及竞争的增加使得市场变得更有效率。 /201309/258278

Last time we talked about the false belief that evolutionary theory says human beings descended from monkeys.上次我们谈论到了关于人类进化论的错误观念:人类是猴子演变而来的。In fact, evolution says that both human beings and monkeys descended from a common ancestor that existed about thirty million years ago.其实,进化论阐述的是人类和猴子都是同一个祖先的后裔。而这个祖先存在于三千万年前。Across time, species can give rise to otherspecies, which can in turn give rise to others.斗转星移,物种会产生其他的物种,这样依次发展又会产生别的不同物种。So, while its not true that human beings evolved from monkeys, if you stretch your thinking youcan see how monkeys can be considered relatives of ours.因此,尽管人类从猴子演变而来不是真的,但如果你发散思维,就会明白为什么会说猴子是我们的近亲。After all, I call someone my cousin if she and I have a common ancestor.终究,我把和我有共同祖先的人叫做表兄。If we could keep recordsacross millions of years, we might want to count monkeys and apes as our cousins too.假如我们能够备存纪录数百万年之久,可能我们会把猴子和猿也视作表兄。But wait a minute!且慢!If thats true, then arent we also related to the ancestors of that common ancestor?如果真的是这样,那我们的祖先不是也有着共同祖先?I mean, my cousin and I both share a grandparent.我的意思是,我和我的表是同一个祖母。But the family tree doesnt stopthere.但是家族谱并不会止于此。We also share that grandparents grandparents.我们也是同一个曾曾曾祖母。What about the species that diverged togive rise to the common ancestor of monkeys and humans?而那些分散发展成猴子和人类共同祖先的物种呢?If you see where this is leading, youll have understood something rather wonderful about life onearth.如果想知道哪儿是起头,就得明白和地球生物有关的一些非常奇妙的事情。In fact, if you take the longest possible perspective — now looking back about four billionyears-you will find that every life form on earth is related to every other.实际上,如果你从长远的角度来看的话—回顾到四十亿年前,你就会发现地球上的所有生物都是息息相关的。We all share commonancestors, because all life came from the first self-reproducing, single-celled organism that existedin the oceans of primal earth.我们有着共同的祖先,因为所有的生命都来源于原始地球上第一个存在于海洋中自我复制的单细胞有机体。Yes, that tree outside is your relative, as is every bug and blade of grass.是的,外面那棵树是你的亲戚。同样的,所有的虫子和青草都是。Invite them in for dinner,why dont you?邀请它们共进晚餐吧!为什么不呢? 201409/326636


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