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2020年02月19日 15:01:26来源:快问门户

  • You can’t take the Warner out of Time Warner TWX -2.94% , but apparently you can kick Time to the curb. And get paid in the process.你不能将“华纳”从“时代华纳”(Time Warner, TWX-2.94%)中剔除,但显然可以将“时代”扫地出门,而且还能从中赚一笔。Time Inc., the venerable magazine publisher whose titles include Fortune, this morning was spun out into an independent company by Time Warner and has begun trading on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker symbol TIME -0.77% . Not only do shareholders in the former parent get new Time Inc. stock, but Time Warner also received 0 million via a one-time dividend paid out of Time Inc.’s .3 billion in recently-issued debt.周一上午,时代公司(Time Inc.,旗下杂志包括《财富》)这家备受尊崇的杂志发行商从时代华纳分拆出来,开始在纽交所上市,交易代码为TIME(TIME-0.77%)。不仅原先母公司的股东获得了这家新公司的股票,而且时代华纳也到手6亿美元的一次性分红,资金从时代公司近期通过债务融资募集的13亿美元中付。Here’s the bull case for Time Inc: For years, the company had basically served as a piggy-bank for Time Warner, generating hundreds of millions of dollars in profit that it rarely got to reinvest in its own business. Why rock the boat with new digital initiatives when the paper mags provided steady, if declining, treasure? Now Time Inc. gets to chart its own course with new management, and aly has begun bulking up its Web properties (including this site, which launched just last week with more than a dozen new staffers). In short, innovation will no longer be stifled. Time Inc. aly has plenty of brand equity, and now it actually gets to evolve the brands to meet the current market.看涨时代公司的观点是:多年来,这家公司基本上就是在充当时代华纳的摇钱树,催生数亿美元的利润,而又极少得以再投资于自身业务——印刷版杂志带来的财源虽然日益萎缩,但好歹也算稳定。既然如此,何苦大兴数字改革撼动现状?而如今,依靠新的管理层,时代得以规划自己的道路,而且已经开始壮大自己的网络财产(包括上周刚刚上线、聘请了十几名新员工的全新Fortune网站)。简言之,创新将不再受到遏制。时代业已拥有足够庞大的品牌资产,如今又得以发展品牌以满足当前的市场需求。Here’s the bear case: Time Inc. may not actually know how to innovate, or at least not how to do it at scale. After all, it’s pretty tough to flip the switch when those mental muscles have been atrophied after more than a decade of being told “No, don’t spend money on that.” The up-and-coming digital talent wants pre-IPO stock at places like Buzzfeed, not options in a maxed-out Time Inc. Plus, there is all that new debt. It’s not completely unwieldy, but certainly makes Time Inc. less nimble than a rival like News Corp., which received billion in cash and zero debt when it was spun off NWSA -0.17% last year.看跌时代公司的观点是:时代也许并不知道该如何创新,或者至少不知道如何大规模创新。毕竟,听了十多年“别在这上面花钱”的忠告,这方面的思维肌肉都已经萎缩,再要扳上开关就颇为困难。那些崭露头角的数字人才要的是像Buzzfeed等公司首次公开募股前的股份,而不是几近被榨干油水的时代公司的一笔期权。况且还有那笔新债务。虽算不上负债累累,但时代的确已在灵活性上不及新闻集团(News Corp., NWSA -0.17%)这样的对手,后者在去年分拆时不但没有债务,而且还到手20亿美元现金。Here’s the pragmatic case: There have been concerns that Time Inc. shares would sink like a stone in the early days. After all, Time Warner shareholders have been told for years that Time Inc. is a drag on earnings, so wouldn’t they want to dump fast when given the new shares? Short-seller paradise. But Time Inc. stock actually climbed in pre-market trading, suggesting two factors in play: (1) Shorts may be holding off, out of fear that they’d get squeezed if Time Inc. manages to sell off a crown jewel or two. (2) Time Inc. still does have much better financials than its reputation indicates, and even skeptics may be a bit curious to see a quarter or two of independent performance.比较务实的观点是:一些人担忧时代股价会在上市初期一落千丈。毕竟多年以来,时代华纳股东都被告知,时代拖了集团盈利的后腿。一旦新股票到手,他们难道不会立刻抛售?这样,它就成了做空者的天堂。但时代股票在盘前交易中不跌反涨,意味着有两个因素在起作用:(1)空方暂且按兵不动,害怕假如时代成功抛售掉旗下一两个最有价值资产,他们就会惨遭轧空。(2)时代公司的财务状况仍然比传说中好得多,就连抱着怀疑态度的人也想先观察它独立后前一两个季度的业绩,然后再说。This is where it’s worth emphasizing that I don’t come to this as an unbiased reporter. Instead, I’m on the inside looking out. My colleagues and I seem to share a sense of time-constrained optimism. It’s a sprint for the privilege of running the longer race. Consider Time Inc. a startup of sorts, or at least a leveraged reboot with an extraordinary amount of brand equity. Like most startups, there is a high probability of failure. But it is hardly predetermined.写到这里有必要强调一下,在这个话题上,笔者的视角不能算客观。这些都是内部观察的结果。我和我的同事们似乎都只在一定时间内持乐观态度。这是一场为争夺长跑竞赛资格而展开的短跑冲刺。不妨将时代视为某种类型的初创企业,或至少是一场携巨额品牌资产进行的杠杆重启。跟大多数初创企业一样,失败的几率很高,但并非一定如此。 /201406/305475。
  • Unlike other East Asian nations where preference for sons over daughters still prevails, gender preference for children in Japan has progressively shifted from son preference to visible daughter preference over the past few decades.在其他东亚国家重男轻女趋向仍然盛行的今天,日本过去几十年的儿童性别偏好已逐步从重男轻女转向明显的女儿偏好。The extent to which individuals’ child gender preference is shaped by their gender role attitudes and evaluate whether daughter preference. It is a reflection of convergence or persistent divergence in gender roles in Japan.个人的子女性别偏好程度是由性别角色态度造成的,它决定女儿偏好存在与否。反映了日本性别角色分歧的收敛或持续。Data from the Single Persons subset of the 11th Japanese National Fertility Survey conducted by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in 1997 suggests that the effect of gender role attitudes on one’s child gender preference differs for men and women. Overall, while daughter preference is associated with nontraditional gender role attitudes for men, daughter preference is associated with traditional attitudes for women.1997年,日本国家人口和社会保障研究所进行的第11次国家生育率调查的数据表明,性别角色态度对男性和女性的子女性别偏好影响不同。总的来说,男性的女儿偏好受非传统性别角色态度影响,女性的女儿偏好则与传统观念有关。The tendency for preference for daughters among the Japanese has been revealed by a number of large-scale national surveys. Empirical papers on the topic have also been published in Japanese journals. Research on gender preference for children in Japan is in fact not a new area within the Japanese sociological and demographic literature.许多大规模的全国性调查已经揭示了日本人倾向于喜欢女儿,日本杂志上也发表过这一主题的实论文。实际上,日本儿童性别偏好研究已不是日本社会学和人口文学中的新领域。Gender preference for children in Japan has progressively shifted from son preference to visible daughter preference over the past few decades. This may appear shocking to sociologists and demographers since it has been long believed that preference for sons over daughters prevails in populations of East Asia. There is a large volume of published research that uncovers parental son preference in countries such as China and the Republic of Korea. However, not much research has been published on the state of this issue in Japan. Such chronic lack of interest is perhaps attributable to: (1) the assumption that Japan is similar in its gender preferences for children to its neighbors because of its geographic proximity and shared Confucius background; and/or (2) the presumption that the Japanese exhibit less or no son preference given its higher level of economic development, thereby making it less appealing to examine. However, because daughter preference has become evident in Japan, it is time to give more attention to the issue.过去几十年内,日本的儿童性别偏好已逐步从重男轻女转向明显的女儿偏好。这个结论可能会令社会学家和人口学家震惊,因为人们一直认为东亚人群中重男轻女倾向普遍。大量已发表研究揭示了中国和韩国等国的父母重男轻女倾向。然而,关于日本重男轻女问题状况的研究发表很少。也许这种兴趣的长期缺乏是由于:(1)日本儿童性别偏好与其邻国相似的假设,因为日本与其邻国之间的地理距离短且共有儒学背景;(2)日本很少或不表现出重男轻女倾向是由于经济发展水平较高的假设,因此日本的研究吸引力较小。然而,由于日本的女儿偏好愈加明显,现在已是更多地关注这个问题的时候。The issue of parental gender preferences for children has implication not only for human rights but also for its demographic impact. In developing countries, salient son preference causes sex-selective abortion, female infanticide, or female neglect. Also, we know from research on China that son preference coupled with strict fertility regulations has raised the issue of imbalanced sex ratios at birth. Thus, an emergence of skewed sex ratios at birth is a likely scenario if daughter preference continues to be common in a society with declining fertility.家长的儿童性别偏好问题不仅影响人权,同时也对人口有影响。在发展中国家,突出的重男轻女倾向造成了性别选择性堕胎、杀害女婴或忽视女性等行为。同时,我们从中国研究中知道,重男轻女现象加上严格的生育规定造成了中国性别出生率不平衡的问题。因此,如果一个生育率下降的社会存在普遍而持续的偏女儿倾向,则这个社会很可能出现性别出生比例失衡的现象。In the context of Japan’s very low fertility1 where most women have only one child, it may become crucial for their first or only child to be of the gender they desire. Because today’s reproductive technologies can hypothetically give parents the ability to control the gender of their offspring, with the presence of daughter preference it is likely that individuals will turn to such technologies to ensure daughters. Therefore, gender preference for children in a low fertility nation needs to be addressed for its potential demographic consequences as well as its implications for ethical issues and human rights concerns.在日本生育率非常低的背景下,大多数女性都只有一个孩子,所以第一个或唯一的孩子的性别是他们所期望的性别可能变得至关重要。如今的生殖技术能使父母有能力控制他们后代的性别,所以女儿偏好的存在导致人们很可能用这类技术来确保得到女儿。因此,低生育率国家需要解决儿童性别偏好问题,以避免其潜在的人口以及其伦理和人权方面的不良影响。 /201408/321040。
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