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2019年09月22日 04:15:07|来源:国际在线|编辑:豆瓣在线
Back in 1950, the Nobel prize-winning physicist Enrico Fermi washaving lunch with friends.早在1950年,诺贝尔奖获得者恩里克费尔米正与他的朋友吃午餐。Conversation turned to the possibilityof extraterrestrial life.他们的话题转到是否可能存在外太空生命上。According to the popular story, Fermi fell silent for a moment and thenasked the simple but profound question: Where Is Everybody?按照那个受欢迎故事的说法,当时费米尔沉默了一会,然后问到了这个简单而又深刻的问题:他们都去哪了?That question is now known as the Fermi Paradox.现在,那个问题被称为是费米尔悖论。A version goes like this.有个版本是这样的:There are a fewhundred billion stars in the Milky Way Galaxy.在系里,有几千亿颗恒星。Suppose even half those stars have planets.假设说那些恒星半数周围有行星。Then suppose only one or two of, say, ten planets per star is conducive to the formation of life, asis the case with our own solar system.然后假设和我们的太阳系一样,每颗恒星周围每十颗行星有一颗或两颗有利于形成生命。Suppose life takes a billion years to get started, ashappened on earth.假设那的生命和地球上的一样,要花费十亿年才开始形成。Suppose the evolution of higher life forms takes another couple billion years,as it did here.再假设更高级形式的生命要再花几十亿年才能进化,就如地球上所经历的那样。None of that would matter.没有一项有问题。The Milky Way galaxy is around ten billion years old.系已经近一百亿光年了。Even with veryconservative estimates, it should still be swarming with life-even intelligent life.即使很保守的估计,它应该还是挤满了生命—甚至是智能生命。The late Carl Sagancalculated that there should be something like a million advanced civilizations out there right now.后来的卡尔萨根计算了一下,目前应该大约有100万先进文明在那了。So where are they?那么他们在哪呢?Tabloid stories aside, theres no scientific evidence from any corner to suggestwe arent alone in the Milky Way.把小报故事放一边看,现在还没有任何角度的科学据表明我们不是系中唯一存在的人类。But why not? The evidence should be everywhere.但是为什么不是呢?据应该到处都是。Thats Fermis paradox.那就是费米尔悖论。It has nothing to do with whether you believe in flying saucers or not.你是否相信有飞碟都不重要。Itsa simple estimation: given what we know about our star, our planet, and how life evolved here, wecan extrapolate to what probably happens elsewhere.这只是一个简单的估计:假如让我们知道有关我们所在的恒星,行星的知识,还有生命如何进化的,那就可以推断别处可能发生什么。And yet: theres no sign of alien civilizations.可是,还没有外星文明的迹象呢。Something must have gone wrong in our thinking.我们的思想一定是哪出了问题。But what? More next time.但是是什么问题呢?下次再说吧。 201406/303368Yaeuml;l: [OVER THE DRUMS] Don! Hey, Don! Hey!咚!嘿!咚!嘿!D: Did somebody say something? 有人在说话吗?Y: Yes, over here, hello!?! 是的,在这里。你好?D: Oh, hi Yaeuml;l. What a sec, let my take my earplugs out. Man, drums are loud. 哦,嗨Yaeuml;l. 等我一下,我把耳塞拿出来。鼓声实在是太大了。Y: Tell me about it! What are you doing? Starting a rock band? 告诉我,你敲鼓干什么?开摇滚乐队吗?D: Nope. Im working out. 没,我在锻炼身体。Y: Uh, OK. It looked to me like you were nurturing your inner John Bonham. 呃,好吧。据我看,你就是在模仿John Bonham.D: Well, maybe I was living out my rock star fantasies, but Im also working up a sweat. 嗯,也许我是要活出我的摇滚明星梦,但我也出了一身的汗。Did you know that during a rock show the drummers heart rate can get as high as 179 beats per minute? 你知道吗?摇滚演出的时候鼓手的心率能达到每分钟179下。Y: Wow! Thats like professional athlete range. 哇!那就好比职业运动员的心率范围。D: Yep. Rock drummers burn something like six-hundred calories per hour. 是的。摇滚鼓手每小时要燃烧六百卡路里。Y: How do you know all this? 你是怎么知道这些的?D: Im a big fan of the rock group Blondie. Remember them from the 1970s and early 80s? 我是摇滚乐队Blondie的忠实粉丝。70年代末80年代初就知道他们了。Anyhow, the groups drummer, Clem Burke, has been working with scientists to study what drumming does for the body. Turns out it could be a great form of exercise. 总之,他们的鼓手,Clem Burke,一直在与科学家研究打鼓对身体的好处。事实明这可能会是一种很棒的健身形式。Y: I can see that. Youre using both arms and legs at the same time, and if youre playing a fast song, that really takes a lot of energy. 我知道。你要同时动用双臂和双腿,而且如果你在演奏快歌,那确实是要耗很大能量的。D: Exactly. And its more fun than running on a tmill like a hamster on a wheel. 的确。但那会比在跑步机上跑步有意思,后者就像是绕着转轮跑的仓鼠。Y: So are we going to see drumming fitness centers in the near future? 所以在不久的将来我们会看到击鼓健身俱乐部吗?D: Maybe. Theres still more research to be done on drumming as exercise. But drumming could very well emerge as a new fitness trend. 也许吧。但还需要做些深入研究。但是打鼓很可能成为一个新的健身趋势。201308/251325

Business商业报道Chinese internet firms中国互联网公司Migrating finches迁徙之雀Chinas online firms are flying to American stockmarkets中国互联网公司纷纷飞向美国股市DICK COSTOLO, the boss of Twitter, was in Shanghai this week to see first-hand what the Galapagos islands of the internet look like.Twitter的首席执行官迪克?科斯特洛紧随Facebook的创始人马克扎克伯格的脚步来中国考察。He follows in the footsteps of Mark Zuckerberg, Facebooks founder, who also came for a study tour.在上海的这个星期,他近距离看到了如加拉帕戈斯群岛般的中国互联网现状。Thanks to censorship and hostility to foreign internet firms,由于对外国互联网公司的审查和敌意,otherwise global giants such as Facebook, Twitter, Google and eBay are banned or irrelevant.全球互联网巨头如Facebook, Twitter, Google和eBay均被禁止在华运营,或许正因如此,Weird and wonderful local variations have, like Darwins finches, evolved in this isolated market instead.中国的互联网公司得以像古怪而奇妙的达尔文雀般在孤立的本土市场进化。Even as American technology bosses are exploring China,美国科技产业的老板们都来中国考察,some of those esoteric local firms are bursting to get out.而国内的一些优质科技公司都迫不及待地想要出去。A moratorium, only recently lifted, on initial public offerings on mainland exchanges has led to a big backlog of IPOs.内地交易所不久前才解除的新股发行禁令造成了IPO大规模积压,So Chinas best online firms are now hoping to list on American exchanges.中国最好的在线公司当前都希望能在美国上市。In January JD, an e-commerce firm akin to Amazon, launched a share offering in America that may value the firm at billion.今年一月,类似于亚马逊的电子商务公司京东商城以约200亿美元的估值在美启动公开招股。On March 14th Sina Weibo, the nearest Chinese equivalent to Twitter,3月14日,被誉为中国的Twitter的新浪微宣布,announced an IPO that would raise up to 0m, reportedly valuing it at around billion.计划通过首次公开募股筹集高达5亿美元的资金,据报道,其估值约在70亿美元。These announcements were put in the shade a day later when Alibaba,其后的3月16日,将业务迅速扩至互联网金融的电商巨头阿里巴巴,an e-commerce colossus rapidly expanding into internet finance, ended months of flirtation with the Hong Kong exchange by declaring it will soon float its shares in New York.宣布很快会在美国纽约上市,这意味着它与香港交所间数月的暧昧试探以失败告终,这则重磅顿时令其他消息黯然失色。It is rumoured that the firm plans to raise over billion.有传言称,阿里巴巴计划筹集超过150亿美元的资金。David Chao of DCM, a venture-capital firm,predicts that it will be bigger than Facebook.DCM风险投资公司的赵克仁预测,这一份额将超过Facebook。The American social networks offering two years ago raised billion.作为美国社交网络,Facebook前两年上市时筹得160亿美元。Analysts expect the flotation to value Alibaba at 0 billion or more, compared with Facebooks current market capitalisation of 5 billion.分析师预计,阿里巴巴上市估值在1400亿美元以上,而Facebook的当前市值为1750亿美元。The Hong Kong exchange lost out on Alibabas flotation because it rejected demands by Alibaba to allow a clique around Jack Ma, its founder,港交所失去了阿里巴巴这块香馍馍是因为它拒绝了阿里巴巴关于允许创始人马云及其管理团队,to retain control using special shares.在公司上市后仍能保留特殊股权来控制公司的请求。The exchange was wise to uphold its ban on such arrangements,港交所在坚持这项禁令上的做法是明智的,because unlike those in America, ordinary investors cannot easily seek redress through the courts when they feel they have been abused by a companys controlling shareholders.因为与美国不同,国内的普通投资者觉得自己的利益被公司的控股股东伤害时,无法轻易通过法院寻求补偿。Fortunately for the Hong Kong market, a flood of other IPOs is headed its way.万幸的是,在香港市场,其他大量的新股仍在持续发行。Will Americans welcome Alibaba and its peers?美国人会欢迎阿里巴巴和它的同行们吗?It was not long ago that they got burned by a series of fraudulent Chinese offerings.毕竟就在不久前,他们还因为中国公司的一系列上市欺诈而大为光火。Duncan Clark of BDA, a consulting firm, argues that those fraud caps were obscure firms with complex, hard-to-verify assets.对此,BDA咨询公司的邓肯克拉克认为,市场欺诈往往发生在资产构成复杂且难以核实的小企业,Todays IPOs are of prominent, well-understood firms,而现在首次公开募股的是业绩优异,资产明晰的大公司,so he thinks investors will see them as proxies for Chinas emerging consumer classes.所以他认为投资者会将他们看作中国新兴消费阶层的代表。Helpfully, various hot American startups, such as Airbnb and Square, are unlikely to list soon,更有助益的是,许多热门的美国初创企业如Airbnb和Square不太可能很快上市,leaving investors hungry.这已让投资者吊足了胃口。However, potential buyers of the Chinese firms shares should consider two risks.然而,中国企业股份的潜在购买者应该考虑到两个风险。The first is regulatory uncertainty.首先是监管的不确定性。In its prospectus, Sina Weibo warns that official censorship may threaten its business model.新浪微在其招股说明书中警告称,官方的审查制度可能威胁其商业模式。Also, China and the ed States are in a dispute that may see the mainland units of the Big Four accountants banned from auditing Chinese firms listed in America.此外,中美尚处纠纷之中,这可能导致全球四大会计师事务所驻中国公司被禁止为在美上市公司提供审计务。And there is a slim chance that either countrys regulators may object to the offshore vehicles used by Alibaba and other Chinese technology firms to list overseas.而且,虽然机率很小,但并不排除双方的监管机构可能在某时都会反对阿里巴巴等中国科技公司用于海外上市的离岸集资媒介。The other risk arises from growing competition.另一风险来自于日益激烈的竞争。Firms like Alibaba grew dominant when local rivals were scarce and foreign ones absent,阿里巴巴之类的企业在成长至今日占主导地位的过程中,本土竞争对手稀少,外国竞争对手为零,but things are changing.但事情正在发生变化。Tencent, a gaming goliath, this month took a big stake in JD,游戏业巨头腾讯这个月购买大量股权入驻京东商城,thus turning it into a potent force in e-commerce.变为电子商务的一股强大力量。This week Alibaba spent 5m on a stake in Tango, an American messaging app.本周,阿里巴巴斥资2.15亿入股美国即时通讯应用Tango。Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu have gone on acquisition sprees to prepare for a battle royal, and this is eroding margins:即将到来的电商混战引发了阿里巴巴,腾讯和百度的收购热潮,而这侵蚀了利润:Tencent reported disappointing earnings this week.腾讯这个星期公布了令人失望的盈利。As its tech stars expand into overseas markets,随着高科技明星企业纷纷将其业务拓展至海外市场,China will be pressed to let foreign rivals in.中国政府也可能被迫放开管制,任国外公司进入中国市场。If one day it agrees to this,如果有一天中国默许了这一点,instead of Galapagos finches its local firms may come to resemble Europes red squirrels, devastated by the arrival of their pushy grey cousins from North America.比起加拉帕戈斯雀,本地公司的处境可能更类似于欧洲红松鼠,来自北美洲的表亲灰松鼠的到来使它们濒临灭绝。 /201403/281637

Science and technology科学技术The history of AIDS艾滋病的历史Heroes and villains英雄与熊The story of AIDS involves many larger-than-life characters, good and bad艾滋病的故事涉及一些富有英雄色的人物,有好,也有坏。ANNIVERSARIES are times for reflection, and this one should be no exception, for the 30-year history of AIDS is a mirror in which humanity can examine itself.人们往往在纪念日反思,这次也会不例外:艾滋病30年的历史是一面能使人类自我审视的镜子。From questionable scientists to philanthropic billionaires, peoples actions against AIDS, and reactions to it, have shown up the best and worst that humans have to offer.从被人质疑的科学家到仁慈的亿万富翁,人们与艾滋病抗争行动,以及对它的反应,已揭露出了人类所表现出来的善与恶。Such dualism was there from the beginning, in the question of who discovered the AIDS-causing virus.这种二重性从一开始便存在,就在谁发现了艾滋病致病病毒问题上。There were two claimants.有两个自认有功者:One, Robert Gallo, is American. The other,Luc Montagnier, is French.一位是美国的罗伯特盖洛;另外一位是法国的吕克?蒙塔尼。Dr Gallo called his discovery HTLV-3.盖洛士称他发现HTLV-3病毒。Dr Montagnier called his LAV.蒙塔尼士称他发现LAV病毒。They were in fact the same thing.HTLV-3病毒和LAV病毒实际上是相同的东西。It turned out, however, that Dr Gallos virus had come from Dr Montagniers laboratory.然而,结果明,盖洛士的病毒是源于蒙塔尼士士的实验室。It was never conclusively proved how, though a contaminated sample may have been to blame.但是从来没有确凿地据明病毒怎样从蒙塔尼士士的实验室传播开来,虽然可能追究于受污染的实验样本。And Dr Gallo was exonerated of any wrongdoing by an official investigation and is universally recognised to have done important work on AIDS.经过正式调查,盖洛士摆脱了一切不道德行为的罪名,并被普遍认为他在艾滋病方面做出重大贡献。But only Dr Montagnier won the Nobel prize—eloquent testimony to some peoples opinion of the whole affair.但是,蒙塔尼士获得诺贝尔奖是对整件事某些看法的最有说力的据。Another source of conflict was whether HIV, as the virus eventually came to be known, was truly the cause of AIDS.另一个冲突的源头在于现在广为人知的HIV病毒是否是引起艾滋病真正成因。At the beginning of the epidemic, that might have been debatable.在艾滋病的刚刚开始盛行时,这可能性是富有争议的。Perhaps HIV was merely a passenger that took advantage of an immune system weakened by another cause?也许HIV病毒仅仅个过客,而造成免疫系统衰弱的真凶另有其人?One once-respected scientist, Peter Duesberg, who did early research on viral causes of cancer, would not drop the idea.曾备受尊重的从事滤过性毒菌引起的癌症的早期研究的科学家彼得?迪斯贝格没有终止这想法。He insisted—and still insists—that the weakening of the immune system characteristic of AIDS is caused by drug-taking, and that HIV is, indeed, a passenger.他坚持认为—现在仍然坚持—,认为艾滋病的特征免疫系统的衰弱是由吸毒引起的,因而HIV病毒确实只是个过客。This theory would not have mattered much except that Thabo Mbeki, a former president of South Africa, latched on to it.但南非前总统塔?姆贝基对这一观点感兴趣,就会引起重大影响。Since South Africa has the worlds largest number of AIDS cases, and one of its highest infection rates, this was bad news,由于南非拥有全世界最多的艾滋病患者而且是其最高感染率国家之一,这个前总统对这种理论一感了兴趣,可糟了。as was Mr Mbekis health minister, Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, who was appointed mainly because she agreed with him, and recommended beetroot and garlic as treatment for the disease.他居然还任命曼托查巴拉拉-姆西曼为卫生部长,只是因为这位认同这位前总统的观点,而且那部长还建议用建议用甜菜根和大蒜来治疗艾滋病。Only with the election of Jacob Zuma, who has himself been publicly tested for HIV, did South Africa return to sensible anti-AIDS policies.直到雅各布?祖玛当选,亲身公开对HIV病毒进行测试,南非在反艾滋病政策才重返理智。Among the heroes, Bill Gates looms large.在众多英雄好汉之中,比尔盖茨赫然耸现。The foundation into which he poured much of his Microsoft fortune took AIDS seriously from the beginning, forming a particularly fruitful partnership with the government of Botswana, one of the worst-affected countries.他用很大一部分微软的财富的捐资建立的基金会从源头治理艾滋病,特别从富有伙伴关系的受灾最严重国家之一的茨瓦纳政府开始。And Nelson Mandela, the heroeshero, also cleaved eventually to the path of righteousness, even while admitting he had not done enough to combat AIDS during his own presidency of South Africa.而纳尔逊?曼德拉也是英雄中的英雄,在正义的路径上披荆斩棘地前进,即使他承认在他当总统时在与艾滋病抗战上留有余力。Mr Gates and Mr Mandela are easy to admire.盖茨先生和曼德拉先生很值得欣赏。One hero that many AIDS activists have difficulty accepting, though, is George Bush junior.不过,许多艾滋病活动家难以接受,另个英雄,是小布什。Activists do not much like born-again Christians, who take a dim view of the sort of sex lives that help to sp HIV.活动家极不喜欢那些信仰重生的基督徒与其蔑视“性生活能传播艾滋病”的行为。But Mr Bush was responsible for setting up the Presidents Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief and for making sure it had plenty of money.但是布什先生负责建立艾滋病救济总统紧急计划,并确保提供充足的资金。PEPFAR is one of the two main organizations, along with the Global Fund, that dish out the cash that rich countries give poor ones to combat AIDS.PEPFAR是两个富裕国家给贫穷国家在与艾滋病抗争上提供现金救济的主要组织之一,与环球基金齐名。Last year, it spent almost billion on AIDS and the tuberculosis that often accompanies it, and it is responsible for helping half of the 6.6m people now on anti-retroviral drugs.去年,它在抗艾滋病和往往伴随出现的结核病上将近花费70亿美元,而且在逆转病毒药物上六千六百万患者中半数都能受惠。Many activists may be reluctant to give Mr Bush credit. But handsome is as handsome does.许多活动家可能不太愿意嘉许布什的功劳。但是,行为美才是真美。 /201304/235921

Business商业报道Opening a business in Brazil在巴西做生意Why make it simple?何等简单Setting up shop has just got easier. But not much开店变得简单。却没有很多BRAZIL is not an easy place to start a business.巴西并不是开店的好地方。The World Bank ranks it 120th out of 183 countries—worse than Burkina Faso or Nigeria.世界将其在183个国家中列为第120位—比布基纳法索及尼日利亚还糟糕。Take one small example.试举一例,Until recently, you needed at least two partners to form a limited-liability company.至今,仍需三人才能成立一家有限责任公司。Sole traders had to find a 1% sócio—an employee, friend or family member willing to lend his name to the articles of association, or a shell company set up solely to hold a tiny share.一人投资者必须寻求一名1% 合作伙伴—雇员、朋友或家庭成员同意将他们的姓名列入公司章程或令其占有极少股份而成立的空壳公司中。Things may have just got a little easier.要求可能放宽了些。A new law, which supposedly came into effect on January 9th, allows a lone business-owner to set up an Empresa Individual de Responsabilidade Limitada:据说一部新法将于1月生效,a single-holder limited-liability firm.其中允许一人设立有限责任公司。The main requirement is capital of 62,200 reais.主要的规定是资产额为62,200雷亚尔。This is a big deal. Alas, it may not happen as planned.此举意义重大,唉,或许会事与愿违。In December the federal body that oversees state business registries told them to turn away firms trying to register Eirelis, as well as foreigners without permanent right of residence.12月监管公司注册的联邦机构回避关于试图注册一人有限责任公司,以及不具有永久居留身份的外国人所提出的申请。No reason was given.对此并未公布相关的理由。Later, lawyers were briefed that the laws aim was to let Brazilian sole traders protect their personal goods against lawsuits or bankruptcy—not to make life easier for big business or foreigners.随后,律师被简要告知律师事务所意在保护巴西个体经营者免受诉讼或破产之灾—并不是保障大公司或外国投资者。Since the restrictions have no basis in the law, challenges are inevitable. Husam Abboud of Establish Brazil, a company-formation specialist, is thinking of Brazilian-style direct action: simply trying to register an Eireli for a firm or a foreigner, and seeing what happens.由于这些限制在法律上没有渊源,因此不可避免地存在质疑。来自Establish Brazil的Husam Abboud ,是一位公司设立的专家,其指出巴西风格的直接效果:只是试图为公司或外国人注册一人有限公司,之后坐观成败。We wont be trying just once, but many times, he says cheerfully.我们并非仅尝试一次,而是多次, 他语带兴奋地称。In Brazil, it always depends whos on the desk on the day.在巴西,总是彼时处在台上的人左右决定。A few speedy locals have aly set up Eirelis.一些敏锐的本国人已开始设立Eirelis。It was quick and easy, because I didnt have to hunt for a partner, says Taise Litholdo, an architect.这样简单快捷,而无需寻找合伙人,建筑师 Taise Litholdo说道。Sebastiao Lino da Silva, an accountant in Sao Paulo, is helping a medical-research firm, which recently lost a partner, to convert into an Eireli.圣保罗的会计师Sebastiao Lino da Silva正协助一家失去合伙人的医药研发公司转为一人有限公司。The remaining owner would otherwise have to find a new partner or close.该公司目前的所有人希望寻找新的合伙人或以类似的模式延续公司。Joao Marcelo Pacheco of Pinheiro Neto Advogados, one of Brazils largest law firms, says that some wealthy clients will use Eirelis to make their lives simpler.来自巴西最大律所之一Joao Marcelo Pacheco的Pinheiro Neto Advogados称,某些重要客户打算运用Eirelis以令生意更顺遂。All this amounts to a tweak, not a revolution.所有这些构成扭转,而非改革。By January 18th only 14 Eirelis had been registered with Sao Paulos board of trade, Brazils biggest.直至1月18日仅有14家Eirelis成功在巴西最大的圣保罗商业局得以注册。The truth is Eirelis are not really suitable for most small businesses, says Mr Abboud. Few hot-dog vendors and hairdressers have enough spare cash to satisfy the capital requirement, he points out.他称事实上Eirelis并非适用所有小型企业,并指出一些卖热的商人和美发师手头上就有满足资本限额的闲钱。That is an argument for scrapping the capital requirement.放弃资本限额引起一番争论。The Socialist Peoples Party, an opposition group, has asked the Supreme Court to rule it unconstitutional for discriminating against micro-traders.反对党—巴西社会人民党已请求最高法院规范歧视微型贸易者的违宪行为。Even if foreigners are allowed to set up Eirelis, breaking into Brazil will remain tough.即使外国投资者被允许设立Eirelis,他们融入巴西仍成问题。The biggest hurdle—finding a permanent resident willing to hold power of attorney for foreign owners—will remain.最大的阻碍—寻找一位永久居留者愿意作为外国所有人的代理人—始终存在。Establish Brazil and its rivals will do this for foreign clients,及其对手将以同样方式对待其外国客户,but only until a local manager has been appointed, or an expatriate has arrived on a permanent business visa.但仅需指定一位本地管理人或一位取得永久居留的移民。The snag is that acting for a foreign firm leaves agents vulnerable to Brazils capricious tax authorities and labour courts, which tend to ignore limited liability and pursue individual owners.代理外国公司的中介因容易被巴西反复无常的税收机构及劳动法庭追查而受到牵绊,他们更倾向个人所有者而非有限责任。They want to be able to freeze someones bank account if problems arise, explains Stephen OSullivan of Mattos Filho Advogados, another big Sao Paulo law firm.发生问题时他们希望冻结某人的账户,另一家律所Mattos Filho Advogados的Stephen OSullivan称。And if theyre the only people in the country, theyll go after the local managers, or even the lawyers.若这个国家仅剩下他们,则他们将追寻本地管理人,甚至本地律师。Unsurprisingly, Mattos Filho is willing to fulfil this role only for old and valued clients.不出意外,Mattos Filho 期待在务已有的尊贵客户的同时能够为更多的公司扮演同样的角色。Eirelis may eventually make it easier to set up shop in Brazil.在巴西做生意可能因Eirelis 而变得简单。But only a little.但仅仅是一点点。 /201305/240047

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