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2019年09月16日 23:24:45|来源:国际在线|编辑:飞大全
If you think European nations are having a hard time holding it together strained by disputes over immigration, austerity and debt spare a thought for the 10 countries that form the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.如果你认为受移民、紧缩和债务方面纠纷的困扰,欧洲国家的团结眼下面临考验,那么你还是省点心思、想想东南亚国家联盟(Asean)0个成员国吧。True, compared with Europe, they face few fatally divisive problems. Most of Southeast Asia is contending with the impact of a slowing China and braced for the turbulence that could accompany the steady normalisation of US monetary policy. Yet there are no big financial transfers within Asean, a loose federation akin to the EU of the 1950s. No country is threatening to leave, nor are there fundamental differences over the direction of policy.的确,和欧洲相比,这些国家几乎不面临什么致命问题。大多数东南亚国家正在应对中国放缓带来的影响,并为美国货币政策稳步正常化可能伴随的动荡做准备。然而,作为一个和上世0年代的欧盟类似的松散联盟,东盟内部不存在大规模的财政转移。没有哪个成员国威胁要退出东盟,东盟内部在政策方向上也不存在根本性分歧。Still, as Asean prepares for an important milestone this month the creation of a theoretically single market it is worth reflecting on the incredible diversity of the “new bloc on the block尽管如此,随着东盟将在本月迎来一个重大里程碑——建立一个理论上的单一市场——反思一下这个“地区经济体中新的经济共同体”不可思议的多样性是值得的。The 625m people of Asean live in states that range from the sprawling Indonesian archipelago of 250m souls to the tiny sultanate of Brunei, with 400,000. You have Singapore, with a gross domestic product per capita of ,000, and Cambodia at just over ,000. There are cacophonous, if imperfect, democracies (Indonesia, the Philippines); Communist dictatorships (Vietnam); and military juntas (Thailand). There are states with majority Muslim populations, such as Malaysia and Indonesia; ones that are mostly Buddhist, including Myanmar; and the predominantly Roman Catholic Philippines. Asean countries are even split over which side of the road to drive on. In five of them it is the left, and five the right although in Vietnam they drive on both.东盟.25亿人口生活在不同的国家。有拥有2.5亿人口、国土绵长的群岛国家印度尼西亚,也有仅有40万人口、面积狭小的苏丹国文莱。有人均国内生产总GDP).5万美元的新加坡,也有人均GDP000美元多一点的柬埔寨。有虽然不完善,但充满了各种声音的民主国家(印尼、菲律宾),有共产主义独裁国家(越南),也有军政府掌权的国家(泰国)。有穆斯林占人口大多数的国家,比如马来西亚和印尼;有佛教徒占大多数的国家,比如越南;也有以罗马天主教徒为主的菲律宾。就连道路通行方向,东盟国家都存在差异。有5个国家靠左行驶,另外5个靠右行驶——不过在越南,人们随便开。Given this diversity, it is no small miracle that Asean is forging ahead with integration by creating the Asean Economic Community, which formally takes effect on December 31. Theoretically, this creates a unified market in goods and services, and clears the path to free movement of people and harmonisation of regulations. It should be no surprise that much of this is fiction.考虑到这样的多样性,东盟通过建立东盟经济共同Asean Economic Community)推进一体化是一个不小的奇迹。东盟经济共同体将在121日正式生效。理论上,这建立了一个统一的产品和务市场,为人员自由流动和法规的协调扫清了道路。应该不令人意外的是,这在很大程度上是虚幻的。Although 95 per cent of tariff lines are at zero, non-tariff barriers, from diverging regulatory standards to dysfunctional ports, make trade between nations frustratingly hard. Nor is there anything like free movement of labour, even in the skilled sector, which is supposedly on its way to full liberalisation. Multinationals operating in Asean complain that it is often hard to transfer staff from one country to another. Meanwhile, millions of unskilled migrants, from construction workers to fishermen, flit between countries in the shadows. In the penumbra of regulation, there is flagrant violation of human rights and even outright trafficking.尽管95%的关税细目税率为零,从监管标准差异到无法正常运转的港口等种种非关税壁垒,使东盟国家之间的贸易艰难得令人沮丧。按照设想,成员国将全面开放人员的自由流动,然而哪怕是在需要高技能的领域,也不存在劳动力的自由流动。在东盟地区经营的跨国公司抱怨,把员工从一个国家转向另一个国家往往很困难。与此同时,从建筑工人到渔民,数百万不具备高技能的移民偷偷地来往于国家之间。在监管的灰色地带,存在着公然侵犯人权,甚至公然贩卖人口的行为。Asean has no ability to sanction countries that flout its rules. It is “all carrot and no stick Jayant Menon, an expert on trade integration at the Asian Development Bank, told a Financial Times conference on the subject recently. Asean has a skeleton secretariat, to put it kindly, based in Jakarta. It has a budget of m not enough to get an EU commissioner out of bed in the morning. Asked who you call when you want to call Asean, Abdul Farid Alias, president of Maybank, a Malaysian bank that has a presence in every Asean country, responds curtly: “No one.”东盟没有能力制裁藐视其规则的国家。亚洲开发银ADB)的贸易一体化专家贾扬蔠鱨(Jayant Menon)最近在“英囀?金融时报》东盟经济峰会”上表示,“都是胡萝卜,没有大棒”。委婉地说,东盟有一个人员配备非常“基本”的秘书处,总部设在雅加达。这个秘书处的预算是1700万美元——这个数字还不足以让一位欧盟专员早上从床上爬起来。当被问及如果想致电东盟应该给谁打电话的时候,在每个东盟成员国都设有分机构的马来西亚马来亚银Maybank)行长阿卜杜勒法里德阿利亚Abdul Farid Alias)给出了简短的回答:“没人”。In spite of such flaws, some companies are trying to treat Asean as a single market.尽管存在这些缺陷,一些企业正试图将东盟视为一个单一市场对待。General Motors and GlaxoSmithKline have made Singapore their regional hub, though that may be because of the ease of doing business in the city state rather the attractions of Asean. Others are seeking to build production centres in Indonesia, Thailand or the Philippines. Rising wages in China are making these and other countries, including Myanmar and Cambodia for textiles, and Vietnam for textiles and electronics, more attractive.通用汽车(General Motors)和葛兰素史克(GSK)都将亚洲总部设在了新加坡,尽管这可能是因为在这个城市国家经营业务较为便易,而不是因为东盟有吸引力。其他公司试图在印尼、泰国或者菲律宾建立生产中心。中国薪资水平的上涨使这几个和其他几个国家吸引力上升,包括缅甸和柬埔寨的纺织业,以及越南的纺织业和电子业。Diageo, the drinks group, has placed hefty bets on Asean lured, says Sam Fischer, its regional president, by consistent growth, young populations and the prospect of an expanding urban middle class. Yet it has sometimes been disappointed, such as when Indonesia suddenly clamped down on alcohol sales this year. Above all, says Mr Fischer, foreign investors want Asean to enforce clear and consistent rules.酒品集团帝亚吉欧(Diageo)在东盟押上了巨额赌注。据其区域总裁萨姆费希Sam Fischer)的说法,东盟的持续增长、年轻的人口结构和城市中产阶层可能不断扩大吸引了帝亚吉欧。然而,该公司有时也会失望,比如印尼今年突然打击售酒。萨姆费希尔表示,最重要的是,外国投资者希望东盟执行清晰和一致的法规。That may be a problem. The “Asean wayfavours consensus. Its lack of overarching ambition is a strength as well as a weakness. By taking a softly softly approach over the nearly five decades since it was founded, Asean has avoided pooled sovereignty and a single currency, both of which have become so contentious in Europe. It has held its project together with remarkably little friction. It has scored quiet successes, from steady tariff reduction to nudging Myanmar back into the fold of respectable nations.这或许是个问题。“东盟模式”看重共识。这种模式缺乏统领全局的抱负,这既是一项优势,也是一项弱势。成0年以来,东盟一直采用极为柔和的策略,避免了主权共享以及单一货币,这二者在欧洲均已变得极富争议。一直以来,东盟维持着一体化的推进,而居然几乎没有造成多少擦。从稳步减少关税到促使缅甸重回受尊敬国家的行列,东盟取得了低调的成功。Yet carrots and consensus can only take you so far. Those looking for a new but faster-growing Europe in the heart of Asia will be disappointed.然而,胡萝卜和共识只能帮它到这里了。那些期望看到亚洲腹地出现一个增长更快的“新欧洲”的人,肯定要失望了。来 /201512/419103

Speaking at the Valdai Club in Sochi recently, President Vladimir Putin easily dismissed the slogan, ;No Putin No Russia,; put forward on the eve of the event by his deputy chief of staff Vyacheslav Volodin. By doing so, Putin showed that he is a ;European;leader and not a Central Asian ;president for life,; contrary to the wishes of officials like Volodin.Volodins slogan might work well for a rally in support of ed Russia, butit lacks enough substance to serve as the basis of an entire ideology despite the efforts by some pro-Kremlin commentators who rushed to find profound meaning in it. The problem is that Putin can reel off from memory Russiasformula for selling gas to Ukraine, ing the figure right down to the penny,but has no interest in complex ideological constructs.Putins three-hour speech at Valdai was aimed primarily at the West. It carriedthe spirit of pragmatic realpolitik and was unwavering in asserting that Russiais in the right a crucial stance for a politician whose popularity rests on his power and bravado.最近在索契瓦尔代俱乐部,普京总统驳回了一个口号,“没有普金就没有俄罗斯”。这会前被驳回的口号是由他的副参谋长Vyacheslav Volodin提出的。普京此举意在表明他是个“欧洲款”领导人,不是中亚式“终身总统”。相反官员们倒是挺喜欢Volodin的口号。Volodin的口号在加强俄罗斯统一的凝聚力上也许会很有效,但整个思想体系缺乏物质基础——匆匆赶来的亲克里姆林派家们觉得这种尝试意义深远。但问题是,普金能够照俄罗斯原方案给乌克兰卖天然气,参考数据走向来赚小钱钱,却对构建复杂的意识形态没有兴趣。普京在瓦尔代近三个小时的演讲主要内容是西方。他以一贯务实又实用的精神坚定不移的宣布俄罗斯的政治主张是正确的——一个立场坚定的政治家受欢迎程度取决于他的能力和勇气。Putin conveyed that the West, and particularly the U.S., had mortally offended Russia and even betrayed it and went on to point out American duplicity and double standards. ;We only wanted what was best for everybody,; Putinessentially argued, ;but you Americans drowned our good intentions in asea of hypocrisy, lies, imperial arrogance and unwillingness to consider anyonesinterests but your own.;And yet despite the legitimacy of such claims, it is unclear whether any of theValdai Club members present who know the intricacies of Russian politics better than anyone agreed with Putins arguments. Russias ruling class,taking its cue from the president, has completely shifted into a world of itsown, replete with a separate set of ideas, values and principles.普京表示,西方世界尤其是美国,已经严重触犯背弃俄罗斯,他还指出美国的两面性和双重标准。“我们只想做对大家都好的事情,”普京从根本上道出实质,“但你们美国人带着帝国的傲慢用伪善和谎言扭曲压制我们的善意,不愿承认除了你们别人也会考虑大局利益。”尽管目前还不清楚(普京的)言论是否被瓦尔代俱乐部与会成员认同——清楚俄罗斯政治复杂性的人们——会赞同普京的话。从总统的暗示来看,俄罗斯的统治阶层已经完全成为充满着他自己一整套独立思想、价值观和原则的世界。And the problem is not whether the Russian or Western world is more;correct,; but that the two sides have conclusively formed separate camps, unable to understand and unwilling to even listen to each other.This is the main factor that will shape Russian foreign and domestic policy inthe next few years. In his sharply anti-U.S. speech, Putin defined his policyand principles in a way that finds comparison to remarks he made at a security conference in Munich in 2007 and the definitive speech that former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill delivered in Fulton, Missouri, in 1946 in which he popularized the term ;Iron Curtain.;But will snarling at the ;duplicitous and despicable; West aloneprovide adequate foundation for creating a meaningful social and political life in Russia?However archaic and reactionary Russias realpolitik might seem to what Putincalls ;our Western friends and partners,; it might very well become aconsistent pattern of behavior in the international arena, giving rise tonumerous confrontations on many fronts.And whereas foreign policy is typically a continuation of domestic policy, theopposite is true in Russia, where the so-called Dima Yakovlev law banning American citizens from adopting Russian orphans was born not so much out of Russian lawmakers love for orphans as it was out of their angry reaction tothe Magnitsky Act, which barred a group of Russian officials from entering the U.S.问题不是俄罗斯和西方世界谁更“正确”,而是两大阵营之间彼此不能理解,甚至不愿意相互倾听。这也是接下来几年影响俄罗斯外交和国内政策的主要因素。对比一下, 2007年普金在慕尼黑安全会议上的权威发言,和1946年前英国首相丘吉尔在密苏里州富尔顿推广“铁幕”时的发言。不难看出,这种尖锐的反美言论是普金捍卫他的政治理论的方式。对着“卑劣又两面派”的西方咆哮能独自给‘创建一个有社会意义和政治环境的俄罗提供坚实的基础?然而古旧而保守的俄罗斯权力政策看起来很像普金所称呼的“我们的西方朋友和合作伙伴”,它很好的成为了国际舞台行为模式,引发了数量众多的冲突。尽管外交政策是一种典型的国内政策的延续,在俄罗斯却相反,所谓的禁止美国公民收养俄罗斯孤儿的迪马雅科夫列夫法律出台,不是俄罗斯法律制定者对孤儿多么有爱,仅是针对美方通过马格尼茨基法案禁止部分俄官员入境(美国)的愤怒反应。PS:马格尼茨基法案012年美国制定的就俄罗斯反腐律师马格尼茨基死亡案件相关的俄方官员的一个黑名单,该名单上人员一律被禁止入境美国。马格尼茨基是毛熊家某基金公司一枚小律师8年揭露毛熊家一起涉案金额高.3亿美元的官僚诈骗案,后被毛熊警方以涉嫌逃税欺诈罪名逮捕,羁押期间遭受毒打,09年因心脏病死亡,毛熊家克里姆林宫发言人公开承认其很可能是殴打致死。Judging by recent statements from senior Russian officials, tough anti-U.S.sentiment has become the leitmotif of Kremlin propaganda. It has become thelitmus test of patriotism, along with accusations that the West is ;aiding and abetting fascists; in Ukraine.But that cannot fill the ideological void and create a positive image of Russias future. A country with aspirations of greatness cannot win the worlds respect by constantly denouncing Washington, much less by struggling with somepathetic ;junta in Kiev.;Moscow leaders might find some meaning in the struggle for the interests ofNovorossia in eastern Ukraine and the even larger Russian world. But in that case, they must first infuse meaning into the social life of Russia itself —the foundation of any larger Russian world.Leaders must first care for their own people, ensure their well-being, standard of living, rights and protection under the rule of law and only then turn their sights to Novorossia and the possibility of further expansion. This idea of anexpanded sphere of Russian influence will never work if it is based only on identifyingenemies ;foreign agents,; people with dual citizenship and;fifth and sixth columns; of domestic enemies.What is needed is to formulate a post-communist ;Russian Dream; —similar to the American Dream without letting the country degenerate into unbridled and primitive chauvinism.从俄罗斯高级官员最近的言论来看,强硬的反美情绪被列为克里姆林宫的宣传主题。随着在乌克兰指控西方是“教唆洗脑的法西斯”舆论,它已成为爱国主义的试金石。这既不能填补思想空白也不能为俄罗斯的未来建立正面形象。一个伟大的国家不能靠指责美国来赢得世界尊重,这比跟某些可悲的“基辅军政府骂架还糟。(基辅军政府,有点类似军阀割据不过局面小的多,该群小集团中的某个奇葩声称自己是正义方,而其人民是恐怖分子) 莫斯科的领导者或许会在东乌克兰的Novorossia(国名,乌克兰东南部和南部地区计划将来自己搭伙建个国家,开张时打算用的名字。)或者俄罗斯世界的利益斗争中得出点意义。但在这种情况下他们首先得赋予俄罗斯社会本身一些实质性意义——那是任何一个俄罗斯世界的基础领导者应该先照顾好自己治下的人民,确保他们身体健康,生活达标,享有权利和受到保护,然后再把目光放到Novorossia和有可能的进一步开拓上。扩大俄罗斯的影响力永远不会实现,如果我们总是把注意力放在鉴别敌人上——“外国特工”,有双国籍的人,被放到“第五和第六栏”的内部敌人。我们最需要的是制定一个后共产主义的“俄罗斯梦”——就像美国梦——而不是让国家毫无准备的倒退回原始化的沙文主义。When former Soviet leader Josef Stalin denounced the ;Yugoslavfascists; of Yugoslavias then-leader Josip Broz Tito, and when former Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev criticized U.S. imperialism while addressingnumerous peace initiatives to the ;progressive part of mankind; —proposals that were just as devoid of substance as similar initiatives sounding from Moscow today they were built into a comprehensive ideological system.At the core of that ideology was an image of the future characterized bycommunist happiness, universal equality, brotherhood and love. It served as theframework for a system of societal ethics and models of personal behavior leading to career advancement and success.The current attempt to substitute a coherent image of the future with ahodgepodge of obsolete Soviet ideas only underscores the ideological poverty of the current regime. That jumble of unprincipled, opportunistic journalism,primitive television propaganda and primeval myths about how the Western worldwants to enslave Russia, push it to its knees and steal its minerals, land,water and air is no vision of the future. It is only a horror story borrowed from the dusty past that offers no constructive plan or direction.前苏联领导人斯大林谴责过时任南斯拉夫领导人的Josip Broz Tito 为“南斯拉夫法西斯”,前苏联领导人勃列日涅夫在美国用“进步的人类”建议和平解决众多倡议时批评美国帝国主义——从今日的莫斯科来看(当年)那种类似的行为毫无意义——他们都建成了一个全面的思想体系。这一共产主义幸福思想的核心应该具有人人平等、友爱长存等长远愿景。作为一个社会道德和引导职业发展与成功的行为规范他务于整个体系框架。这种用老旧的苏联大杂烩观念代替未来愿景的尝试只能暴露出当前政府的思维匮乏。那群无原则、投机主义的新闻媒体,用低级简陋的方式宣传和杜撰着关于西方世界如何想要奴役俄罗斯,使其屈好偷走它的矿产,土地,水和空气,那不是未来该有的憧憬。仅仅是个从不能提供建设规划和方向的旧土堆中虚构出来的丑恶故事。来 /201412/347676

Svetlana Alexievich, the recently announced recipient of this year’s Nobel Prize for Literature and a prominent critic of Soviet and post-Soviet regimes, offered a bleak assessment of the political situations in Russia and her native Belarus while addressing journalists in Berlin on Saturday.刚刚获得今年诺贝尔文学奖的斯韦特兰娜·阿列克谢耶维Svetlana Alexievich)是前苏联与前苏联政权著名的批评者,周六,她在柏林接受记者采访时,对俄罗斯与她的祖国白俄罗斯的政治局面发表了悲观的意见。“Every four years, new European officials come to power and think they can solve the Lukashenko problem without knowing that he is a man who is untrustworthy,Ms. Alexievich said. She spoke on the eve of a presidential election in Belarus in which President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, often referred to as Europe’s last dictator, is widely expected to win a fifth term.“每过四年,新上任的欧盟官员都认为他们能够解决卢卡申科的问题,殊不知他根本就不是个值得信赖的人,”阿列克谢耶维奇说,周六正值白俄罗斯总统选举前夕,现任总统亚历山大·格里戈里耶维奇·卢卡申Aleksandr G. Lukashenko)很有可能连续当选第五个任期,他往往被视为欧洲的最后一个独裁者。Ms. Alexievich described Sunday’s election as a rigged contest. “No one doubts that Lukashenko will win,she said. “To paraphrase Stalin, it’s unimportant who votes for whom; what matters is who counts the vote. I don’t think we can expect any surprises.”阿列克谢耶维奇说,周日的选举是一场非法操纵的竞争,“没有人认为卢卡申科会输,”她说。“这和斯大林是一回事,谁为他投票并不重要;重要的是谁来计票。我不认为选举结果会出现任何意外。”European officials have said the European Union is prepared to suspend sanctions against Mr. Lukashenko after he released the country’s last political prisoners this year. A decision is expected before Oct. 31.欧盟官员曾经表示,在卢卡申科于今年释放该国最后一批政治犯之后,欧盟将会暂停对白俄罗斯的制裁。这个决定有望在101日之前做出。Ms. Alexievich, who was awarded the Nobel for her sweeping nonfiction works about events like the Soviet-Afghan war and the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, also described Russia as a place where “one can no longer speak of democracyand “where ‘liberalis a dirty word.”阿列克谢耶维奇因她的非虚构写作而获得诺贝尔文学奖,她的作品广泛地描写了阿富汗战争与切尔诺贝利核泄露事件等重大问题,在她笔下,俄罗斯是一个“人们再也不能谈论民主”的地方,在那里“‘自由’是一个坏字眼”。“It isn’t about Putin,said Ms. Alexievich, 67, referring to the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin. “It’s about the collective Putin. He has a huge approval rating, perhaps 80 percent.”“这不是关于普京,7岁的阿列克谢耶维奇说起俄罗斯总统符拉迪米尔·V. 普京(Vladimir V. Putin)。“这是关于群体对普京的持。他拥有极高的持率,大概在80%左右。”“I now understand what Hannah Arendt meant when she talked about ‘dark times.Russia is now living in dark times,she added, referring to the German-born political philosopher who wrote about totalitarianism.“我现在明白汉娜·阿伦Hannah Arendt)所谓的‘黑暗时代’是什么了。俄罗斯现在就处于黑暗时代,”她补充说道;汉娜·阿伦特是生于德国的政治哲学家,曾经写过关于集权主义的专著。Because of her criticism of the government in Belarus, where press freedoms are under constant threat, Ms. Alexievich spent a decade in exile in Italy, France and Sweden, among other places. That time widened her horizons, she said, and helped her to “see the world in color.”在白俄罗斯,出版自由常年受到威胁。由于批评政府,阿列克谢耶维奇在意大利、法国和瑞典等地度过了十年的流放岁月。她说,这段时间拓宽了自己的视野,让她“见识了这个多的世界”。Yet for most of her life, Ms. Alexievich has lived in the Belarussian capital, Minsk. It is only by being there and speaking to people, she said, that she can express the realities of their lives. “How people actually live you can’t find that on the computer,she said Saturday.然而她人生的大部分时间还是在白俄罗斯的首都明斯克度过。她说,只有生活在那里,并与人们交谈,她才能够表现人们的现实生活。“人们的真实生活是怎样的,在电脑上可找不到,”星期六接受采访时,她说。Since 1994, her books have not been published in Belarus.994年起,她的书在白俄罗斯被禁止出版。Though she said she hoped that winning the Nobel Prize could mean expanded protection for her and other dissenting voices, Ms. Alexievich said she was less optimistic about whether the award could make a larger difference in political terms.尽管她说,她希望这一次获得诺贝尔奖能够帮助她与其他异见者获得更广泛的保护,但她也说,自己对这个奖在政治层面能否产生更大影响不甚乐观。“I’ve won a lot of international prizes, and that had no impact on our authorities, our government,she said.“我曾经获得过很多国际奖项,但我们的当局和政府完全没有受到影响,”她说。来 /201510/403301

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