原标题: 在福清平潭县妇幼保健医院挂号预约好卫生
Business Opening a business in Brazil Why make it simple?商业 在巴西做生意 何等简单Setting up shop has just got easier. But not much开店变得简单。却没有很多BRAZIL is not an easy place to start a business.巴西并不是开店的好地方。The World Bank ranks it 120th out of 183 countries-worse than Burkina Faso or Nigeria.世界将其在183个国家中列为第120位——比布基纳法索及尼日利亚还糟糕。Take one small example. Until recently, you needed at least two partners to form a limited-liability company.试举一例,至今,仍需三人才能成立一家有限责任公司。Sole traders had to find a ;1% sócio;-an employee, friend or family member willing to lend his name to the articles of association, or a shell company set up solely to hold a tiny share.一人投资者必须寻求一名;1% 合作伙伴;——雇员、朋友或家庭成员同意将他们的姓名列入公司章程或令其占有极少股份而成立的空壳公司中。Things may have just got a little easier. A new law, which supposedly came into effect on January 9th, allows a lone business-owner to set up an Empresa Individual de Responsabilidade Limitada (Eireli for short): a single-holder limited-liability firm.要求可能放宽了些。据说一部新法将于1月生效,其中允许一人设立有限责任公司(简称Eireli)。The main requirement is capital of 62,200 reais (,250).主要的规定是资产额为62,200雷亚尔(35,250美元)。This is a big deal. Alas, it may not happen as planned.此举意义重大,唉,或许会事与愿违。In December the federal body that oversees state business registries told them to turn away firms trying to register Eirelis, as well as foreigners without permanent right of residence.12月监管公司注册的联邦机构回避关于试图注册一人有限责任公司,以及不具有永久居留身份的外国人所提出的申请。No reason was given.对此并未公布相关的理由。Later, lawyers were briefed that the laws aim was to let Brazilian sole traders protect their personal goods against lawsuits or bankruptcy—not to make life easier for big business or foreigners.随后,律师被简要告知律师事务所意在保护巴西个体经营者免受诉讼或破产之灾——并不是保障大公司或外国投资者。Since the restrictions have no basis in the law, challenges are inevitable.由于这些限制在法律上没有渊源,因此不可避免地存在质疑。Husam Abboud of Establish Brazil, a company-formation specialist, is thinking of Brazilian-style direct action: simply trying to register an Eireli for a firm or a foreigner, and seeing what happens.来自Establish Brazil的Husam Abboud ,是一位公司设立的专家,其指出巴西风格的直接效果:只是试图为公司或外国人注册一人有限公司,之后坐观成败。;We wont be trying just once, but many times,; he says cheerfully. ;In Brazil, it always depends whos on the desk on the day.;;我们并非仅尝试一次,而是多次,; 他语带兴奋地称;在巴西,总是彼时处在台上的人左右决定。;A few speedy locals have aly set up Eirelis.一些敏锐的本国人已开始设立Eirelis。;It was quick and easy, because I didnt have to hunt for a partner,; says Taise Litholdo, an architect.;这样简单快捷,而无需寻找合伙人,;建筑师 Taise Litholdo说到。Sebastiao Lino da Silva, an accountant in Sao Paulo, is helping a medical-research firm, which recently lost a partner, to convert into an Eireli.圣保罗的会计师Sebastiao Lino da Silva正协助一家失去合伙人的医药研发公司转为一人有限公司。The remaining owner would otherwise have to find a new partner or close.该公司目前的所有人希望寻找新的合伙人或以类似的模式延续公司。Joao Marcelo Pacheco of Pinheiro Neto Advogados, one of Brazils largest law firms, says that some wealthy clients will use Eirelis to make their lives simpler.来自巴西最大律所之一Joao Marcelo Pacheco的Pinheiro Neto Advogados称,某些重要客户打算运用Eirelis以令生意更顺遂。All this amounts to a tweak, not a revolution.所有这些构成扭转,而非改革。By January 18th only 14 Eirelis had been registered with Sao Paulos board of trade, Brazils biggest.直至1月18日仅有14家Eirelis成功在巴西最大的圣保罗商业局得以注册。;The truth is Eirelis are not really suitable for most small businesses,; says Mr Abboud. Few hot-dog vendors and hairdressers have enough spare cash to satisfy the capital requirement, he points out.Abboud称;事实上Eirelis并非适用所有小型企业;,并指出一些卖热的商人和美发师手头上就有满足资本限额的闲钱。That is an argument for scrapping the capital requirement.放弃资本限额引起一番争论。The Socialist Peoples Party, an opposition group, has asked the Supreme Court to rule it unconstitutional for discriminating against micro-traders.反对党——巴西社会人民党已请求最高法院规范歧视微型贸易者的违宪行为。Even if foreigners are allowed to set up Eirelis, breaking into Brazil will remain tough.即使外国投资者被允许设立Eirelis,他们融入巴西仍成问题。The biggest hurdle—finding a permanent resident willing to hold power of attorney for foreign owners—will remain.最大的阻碍——寻找一位永久居留者愿意作为外国所有人的代理人——始终存在。Establish Brazil and its rivals will do this for foreign clients, but only until a local manager has been appointed, or an expatriate has arrived on a permanent business visa.Establish Brazil及其对手将以同样方式对待其外国客户,但仅需指定一位本地管理人或一位取得永久居留的移民。The snag is that acting for a foreign firm leaves agents vulnerable to Brazils capricious tax authorities and labour courts, which tend to ignore limited liability and pursue individual owners.代理外国公司的中介因容易被巴西反复无常的税收机构及劳动法庭追查而受到牵绊,他们更倾向个人所有者而非有限责任。;They want to be able to freeze someones bank account if problems arise,; explains Stephen OSullivan of Mattos Filho Advogados, another big Sao Paulo law firm. ;And if theyre the only people in the country, theyll go after the local managers, or even the lawyers.;;发生问题时他们希望冻结某人的账户,;另一家律所Mattos Filho Advogados的Stephen OSullivan称;若这个国家仅剩下他们,则他们将追寻本地管理人,甚至本地律师。;Unsurprisingly, Mattos Filho is willing to fulfil this role only for old and valued clients.不出意外,Mattos Filho 期待在务已有的尊贵客户的同时能够为更多的公司扮演同样的角色。Eirelis may eventually make it easier to set up shop in Brazil. But only a little.在巴西做生意可能因Eirelis 而变得简单。但仅仅是一点点。 /201211/210684Business Corporate political donations Lighten our darkness商业 公司政治献金 拨云见日There are big differences in what firms reveal about their political donations政治献金信息披露因公司而异IT IS not just the incestuous make-up of News Corporations board that annoys its shareholders. Activist investors such as the Nathan Cummings Foundation also complain about the firms lack of transparency about its political donations.不仅仅是新闻集团董事会排外的组织结构让其股东感到懊恼,就连诸如内森?卡明斯基基金会这样的投资积极分子也抱怨该公司在其政治献金项目上缺乏透明度。Although News Corp opened up a bit this year, it is still more opaque than its peers in the Samp;P 100, as a new index of corporate political disclosure shows.尽管,今年新闻集团对该项目透露了稍许信息,但是根据一项新的旨在披露公司政治捐赠行为的指数显示,新闻集团较其在标准普尔500指数上市的同行们显得更加不透明。The index, launched by the Robert Zicklin Centre for Corporate Integrity at Baruch College on September 15th, does not argue that corporate political donations are good or bad.9月15日,由纽约市立大学巴鲁克学院的罗伯特金科林企业诚信中心发布了该指数。该指数并未表明赞同抑或否定公司政治捐赠行为的意见。But its compilers believe that the public and shareholders have a right to know what firms are up to.但是该指数的众多编者相信公众和股东有权利知道公司做出捐赠决议的理由。It looks at 57 measures of transparency, including how many clicks it takes to get from the firms website to information about political donations and how detailed that information is.指数考察了57项透明度指标,其中包括为获得公司政治捐赠信息而产生的公司网页点击量及信息的详细程度。News Corp is one of 28 companies rated ;opaque;, along with popular bogeymen such as Halliburton and Walmart—and fashionable firms such as Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, Google, Nike and Walt Disney.新闻集团是28家被评为不透明的公司之一,这些公司还包括诸如哈利伯顿和沃尔玛这样受人欢迎的怪物公司,以及亚马逊、伯克希尔?哈撒韦公司、谷歌、耐克和迪斯尼这样的新贵公司。Only a handful of firms were deemed ;transparent;, including Colgate-Palmolive, IBM, Pfizer and Goldman Sachs (an investment bank once nicknamed ;Government Sachs; because of its political connections).仅有部分公司被该指数认为是透明的,这包括高露洁、国际商业机器有限公司,瑞辉制药有限公司和高盛(一家因其政治关系而曾被冠以;Government Sachs;绰号的投资)。Finance is, surprisingly, the third-most-transparent industry, behind drugs and oil. Mining, manufacturing and utilities are the most opaque.令人惊奇的是,金融业位列透明度第三的产业,居于制药业和石油行业之后。采矿业、制造业及公用事业是最不透明的行业。As firms donate more to politicians, they tend to disclose more.鉴于公司对政客的捐赠行为越来越多,他们倾向于披露更多的信息。Yet the very biggest donors are not the most transparent, says Donald Schepers, one of the creators of the index, which they aim to expand next year to cover the entire Samp;P 500.作为该指数创始人之一唐纳德?施皮尔斯说,尽管最大的献主是那些最不透明的公司,但他们打算明年将该指数拓展到囊括所有的标准普尔500公司。That said, several firms have ;made big improvements in their disclosure since we wrote to tell them that we were doing the index,; says Mr Schepers.施皮尔斯说,由于被告知他们正在编排该指数,一些公司改善了政治捐赠项目的信息披露状况。That alone suggests that measuring transparency is worthwhile.仅此就表明对透明度的衡量是值得的。 /201301/219222

Obituary;Wynne Godley;讣告;韦恩·戈德利;Wynne Godley, British economist, died on May 13th, aged 83;英国经济学家韦恩·戈德利于五月十三日辞世,终年83岁;A certain ambiguity marked Wynne Godley. Was he at heart an aesthete, happiest making music in beautiful buildings among works of art? Or was he more naturally one of the sophisters, economists and calculators whose rise marked, for Edmund Burke, the passing of the age of chivalry? Was he by temperament a dissenter? Or just a typical scion of the British upper classes, an establishment man who played at being a rebel? Was he a determined pessimist, who took some pleasure in his reputation as the Cassandra of the Fens? Or a convivial, witty friend, who entertained with style and had a taste for gambling? Was he a shy violet, trembling before an audience? Or a controversialist who was hardly publicity-averse?韦恩·戈利这个人的特点带有几分模棱两可。从本质上讲他是不是一个唯美主义者,置身于华美的厅堂上,徜徉于艺术珍品之中,摆弄音乐,陶醉无比?还是说,以天生秉性而言,他更应当被看成是一个辩论大师、经济学家又兼计算高手,当初此等人物的出现曾被埃德蒙·伯克认为标志了骑士时代的终结?他是不是一个从性格上就爱拂逆众见的异议者呢?还是说,他仍未脱英国上流阶级子弟之典型,以体制中人的身份,玩几把反叛的游戏?他真是一个坚定不移的悲观论者并且能从“芬斯地区的悲观预言师”这样的名头上得几分快乐吗?还是说,这位朋友爱交游喜风趣,招待客人讲究排场,还有的雅兴?他是个在听众面前会紧张到发抖的“羞答答的紫罗兰”呢?还是一个好辩的主儿,动起嘴来几不忌惮抛头露面?If the answer to each of these questions is at least partly yes, that may mean no more than that Mr Godley was a man of several talents, many interests and an intelligence to make good use of them. His first love was certainly music, for when he left Oxford, where he politics, philosophy and economics, he went to the Paris Conservatoire and became a professional oboist. Performing in public, though, filled him with terror, which led him to give up his job as principal oboe in the B Welsh Orchestra. He turned to economics instead.如果对上述每一个问题的回答至少有一部分是“是”,则也许只是意味着——戈德利是一位有几份天资、多种爱好的男人,是一位有智慧对种种爱好善加利用的男人。他第一爱好无疑是音乐,因为当他离开他攻读政治、哲学和经济学的牛津大学后,他去了巴黎音乐学院,并成为一个专业的双簧管吹奏者。可是,由于他在公众场所表演充满紧张,致使他放弃了在英国B广播公司威尔士乐团首席双簧管演奏员的工作。他转向了经济学领域。That, anyway, became his profession. But his love of music never left him, and art remained a part of his life to the end, not least through his marriage to Kitty, the daughter of Sir Jacob Epstein. And though Mr Godleys good looks and elongated figure might seem to have been tailor-made for El Greco, El Greco being unavailable, it was Epstein who took him as the model for a huge bronze statue of St Michael that hangs on the outside of Coventry Cathedral, with the devil vanquished at his feet.反正经济学成了戈德利的职业。但他对音乐的热爱始终不离不弃,及至人生终点,艺术仍然是他生活的一部分,尤其贯穿于他与爱泼斯坦(1880-1959, 生于美国的英国雕刻家——译者注)爵士之女基蒂的婚姻生活中。此外,尽管戈德利英俊的外貌和高高的身材似乎是为埃尔·格雷考(十七世纪西班牙画家、雕塑家——译者注)量身定做的模特儿,但格雷考无福消受。把戈德利作为圣迈克尔巨型青铜塑像模特儿的是爱泼斯坦,这尊塑像立于考文垂大教堂外面,其脚下是被征的魔鬼。In Keyness footsteps, up to a point在某种程度上,戈德利是追随凯恩斯的足迹The devilish intricacies of economics Mr Godley seemed to overwhelm just as effortlessly. After a spell in business and a few years at the Treasury, he was enticed to Kings College, Cambridge, which 61 years earlier another economist-aesthete, John Maynard Keynes, had joined as a lecturer, writing (with his mothers help) a letter of resignation from the civil service to his boss, a Sir Arthur Godley. This man was to become the first Lord Kilbracken and eventually grandfather of Wynne.戈德利先生对于如魔幻般错综复杂的经济学,应对起来似乎毫不费力。在商界和财政部干了一些年头后,他神往起61年前另一个审美学家、经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯(注1)曾经就读的剑桥国王学院来,他在向其老板老板阿瑟·戈德利男爵写(在其母亲的帮助下)了一封文员辞职信后,成为了该学院的一名讲师。那位男爵就是基尔布拉肯勋爵一世并最终成为韦恩·戈德利的祖父。Mr Godley became best known for his outspoken criticisms of Conservative economic policies. In the 1970s he took the view, which he recognised as dissenting, that international trade should be, as he put it, “in some sense, managed” through import controls, adding unpersuasively that this was not really protectionism, since he did not want to reduce imports, merely the propensity to import; and protection should be “as minimally selective as possible”. More creditably, he correctly predicted that the boom generated by the Conservative government under Ted Heath in the 1970s would end in tears. He was also proved largely right in foreseeing the severity of the recession that came later under Margaret Thatcher.戈德利因直言不讳地批评保守党的经济政策而变得愈加有名。在上世纪70年代,他发表观点(他意识到此观点不受欢迎):国际贸易应该像他所指出的那样是通过进口管制实现的“某种意义上的管理”,他还缺乏说力地补充这确实不是贸易保护主义,因为他并不主张减少进口,只是减少进口倾向;应当“尽可能最少地选择”贸易保护措施。更值得称道的是,他正确地预言到了上世纪七十年代希思治下的保守党政府激发的繁荣,将以泪雨告终。对后来撒切尔夫人时期严重经济衰退的预计,也被明是大体上正确的。These doleful prophecies, coupled with his very public loathing of monetarism, earned him no friends in government and the grant for his forecasting group at Cambridge was abruptly stopped in 1982. But he was hardly an outcast. Though not properly trained as an economist, he had proved himself as a macroeconomic modeller, and had been made a university professor of applied economics. He had also become a director of the Royal Opera House. By 1992 he was back in favour at the Treasury, joining the panel of independent forecasters known as the “six wise men”.上述令人沮丧的预测,连同他对货币主义的公开反感,使得戈德利在政府没有朋友,其剑桥预判小组的政府拨款也于1982年突然停止了。不过,戈德利不大可能成为被抛弃的人。尽管他没有像经济学家那样接受正规高等教育,但他却明自己是一位宏观经济学缔造者,而且还是一位大学应用经济学教授。他也是皇家歌剧院的懂事。1992年,戈德利在一片赞赏中回到财政部,参加被称作“六智囊”的独立预测员小组。On the face of it, this was not a turbulent life. Mr Godley said he had a lonely childhood, involving a violent maiden aunt and the “chamber of horrors of a British prep school”. Later, in his 30s, he lived life “through an artificial self” in “a state of dissociation”, which drove him into the clutches of a fiendish psychoanalyst. This in turn blighted his middle years.单从表面上看,上述这一切算不上是混沌难驭的人生经历。戈德利说过,他有一个陷于粗暴未婚姑妈和“英国预科学校恐怖屋”之难的孤独童年。后来,在他30多岁期间,他过着“分裂状态”下“自我十足虚假”的生活,这种生活驱使他成为刁钻心理分析学家的掌中物。这种生活也相应地折磨着他的中年。His background, though it might misleadingly be called privileged, was mixed up. The first Lord Kilbracken had been a protégé of a Liberal prime minister, Gladstone, but was a Conservative; and the second, Wynnes father Hugh, also a Tory, had been madly in love with Violet Asquith, the daughter of another Liberal prime minister. Hugh separated from Wynnes mother about the time he was born, and was impotent, anti-Semitic and alcoholic. Wynnes mother paraded naked in front of him and would tell him, as a child, of the intense pleasure she got from sexual intercourse. But he reached the age of 17 not knowing that women had vaginas.虽然戈德利·韦恩的出生背景会让人误以为是特权阶层,但其实是模糊不清的。他的祖父基尔布拉肯一世虽曾是自由党首相格莱斯顿的门生,却是个保守派;而他的父亲基尔布拉肯二世休·戈德利也是一名保守党成员,疯狂爱上了另一位自由党首相的女儿维尔莉特·阿斯奎思。休·戈德利大约在韦恩出生后就与韦恩的母亲分居,是一个性欲低下者、反犹太者、嗜酒者。当韦恩还是一个孩子的时候,他妈妈在他面前展示她的裸体,并会告诉他她从性爱中获得的强烈快感。可是,成长至17岁的戈德利·韦恩先生尚不知女性是有阴道的。He was supremely happy at Oxford, where his tutor was Isaiah Berlin, to whom he said he owed all his higher education. But, he wrote, “Nora [his stepmother] shot herself in the head with a shotgun; my father, his entire fortune squandered, died alone in a hospital where the nurses were unkind to him; my half-sister was committed to a high-security mental institution at Epsom; my mother had a bad stroke and lived out her last six years hemiplegic and helpless, her mind altered. She told her nurses that they were ‘lower-class scum and complained that I was ‘marrying the daughter of a New York yid.”在牛津大学,韦恩快乐无比,他的牛津大学导师是赛亚·伯林,他曾说过他所受的全部的高等教育都是从柏林那儿得来的。不过,他著述称:“继母诺拉用猎结束了自己的生命;我父亲花光家财,在一家受尽护士冷眼的医院里孤独离世;我同父异母的被送进埃普索姆一家管理严格的精神病院;我母亲严重中风,在偏瘫无助中度过生命的最后六年,并改变了观点。她告诉护士:‘他们是低等的贱人,还抱怨我‘娶了犹太裔纽约人的女儿”。Against a background like this, a little waywardness in the world of macroeconomics seems entirely forgivable.在这样的家庭背景下,在宏观经济学界中,戈德利·韦恩的些许任性似乎是完全可以得到宽恕的。 /201209/200413Winter Wheat冬小麦According to the famous song, America is beautiful for its spacious skies, purple mountains, and amber waves of grain. If you were to make a music based on these lyrics youd probably want mid to late summer images of fruit-laden trees and fields of rippling wheat under sunny blue skies.由那首著名的歌得知,美国因它广阔的天空,紫色的山峦,还有琥珀色的谷浪而美丽。如果你打算取材于这些歌词作曲,那你也许想要夏末载满果实的树和晴朗蓝天下翻滚的麦浪的图像吧。But where the amber waves of grain are concerned, the image might be slightly misleading. While at least some wheat in the ed States and Canada is planted in the spring and harvested in the summer, much is planted in the late fall and harvested in the spring.但是有谷浪的地方,那样的形象也许稍令人误解吧。虽然美国和加拿大或多或少有些小麦是在春天播种,夏天收割,但大部分是晚秋播种,第二年春天收割的。Winter wheat manages to survive freezing temperatures and being buried under piles of snow. How do these plants pull it off?冬小麦设法在结冰的温度下生存,还要埋于厚厚的大雪下。这些作物是怎样成功生存的呢?After being planted in the mid to late fall, winter wheat seedlings undergo a process called cold acclimation. They begin to grow and poke through the soil as the temperature drops to around forty-eight degrees Fahrenheit.在仲秋或晚秋播种后,冬小麦种子经历了被称为冷驯化的过程。它们在气温降到48华氏温度后开始冲破土壤生长。As the plants leaves absorb light the seedlings produce large amounts of carbon and store it in the crown, the part of the plant where root and shoot meet underground.当小麦叶吸收阳光后,种子产出大量的碳并储存在植物冠中,这是根和芽在地底下交汇的地方。At the same time, the absorption of light combined with low temperatures triggers the expression of certain genes that help the plant tolerate freezing temperatures.同时,吸收的光和低温结合促使某种基因的产生,以帮助作物忍耐低温。Although scientists do not fully understand precisely how this process works, it is clear that carbon production and freezing tolerance are necessary for the plants survival.尽管科学家们并未完全准确弄明白这个过程是怎样进行的,但是生产碳和忍受低温对作物的生长很必要,这一点是显而易见的。When the snow melts and temperatures rise in the spring, the plant has plenty of stored energy for steady growth. By mid spring, many North American wheat fields are beautiful with waves of grain y for harvest.春天雪融化,气温也升高了,这时冬小麦已经存储了大量供稳定生长的能量了。到仲春的时候,许多北美小麦地因有大片待收割的小麦浪而美丽无比。 /201211/211204

Books and Arts; Book Review;Richard Holbrooke;Bullish and bullying;文艺;书评;理查德·霍尔布鲁克;风生水起,恃强凌弱;The Unquiet American: Richard Holbrooke in the World. Edited by Derek Chollet and Samantha Power.《不安分的美国人:理查德·霍尔布鲁克世界作为记》。德里克·乔列特和萨曼莎·帕沃编辑。Richard Holbrooke, an American diplomat known by friend and foe as a bulldozer, was accustomed to getting his way. His final assignment to fix the mess in Afghanistan and Pakistan, however, proved more than he bargained for.理查德·霍尔布鲁克,一位美国外交官,朋友和对手都认为他是个恃强凌弱的人,他做事总是我行我素。然而,他的最后一次任务——收拾阿富汗和巴基斯坦的烂摊子——却没能如他所愿。Barack Obama appointed him as his presidential envoy, but Mr Holbrooke held little authority. Senior officials in Afghanistan and Pakistan, who resented his abrasive personality and his relative lack of knowledge of the region, kept him at arms length. At home, American generals and the CIA ran the show. Most debilitating, Mr Obama, whose distaste for self-promotion is well documented, treated his envoy with a coolness not unlike that shown by many of the subcontinents leaders.霍尔布鲁克先生由巴拉克·奥巴马指定为自己的总统特使,但手上几乎没有什么权力。阿富汗和巴基斯坦的高级官员都看不惯他蛮横粗暴的性格,指责他对当地相关情况不了解,对他敬而远之。而美国国内事务由将军和中央情报局掌管。最削弱他意志的是,人人皆知奥巴马先生最讨厌像霍尔布鲁克先生这样毛遂自荐的人,因而总统对他的特使态度冷淡,和次大陆国家领导人常有的不冷不热的态度没什么两样。This frustrating final post of Holbrookes life, coupled with his failure to get the job he most coveted, secretary of state, may have been what prompted his friends to assemble an encomium in such fast order that it appears less than a year after he died. This tribute offers essays by colleagues, protégés, several journalists (a tribe on which he lavished unwavering attention), as well as his wife, Kati Marton, a former foreign correspondent. The er is presented with mostly admiring anecdotes about Holbrookes early days in Vietnam as a questioning foreign-service officer, his rebellious tenure as Peace Corps director in Morocco, and onwards and upwards as assistant secretary for East Asia and the Pacific, peace negotiator for Bosnia and ambassador to the ed Nations.霍尔布鲁克先生人生中最后的工作让人提不起劲儿来,再加上他没始终能坐上自己最想要的职位,国务卿,或许是这些原因使得他的朋友们在他去世后不到一年的时间里就为他写好了颂词,这本颂词的文章作者有他生前的同事、受保护人、几名记者(他生前坚定不移地给予关注的群体),还有他曾是一名外事通讯记者的妻子卡蒂·马顿。读者将会看到霍尔布鲁克先生早年在越南发生的令人羡慕的奇闻异事,那时,他还是个喜欢刨根问底的驻外事务部官员;还将重温他作为美国和平队执行官在洛哥时的叛逆时光,作为东亚和太平洋地区事务助理秘书时平步青云的时代,以及作波斯尼亚和平谈判员和联合国大使时的经历。This all feels less complex and engaging than the man himself. More striking are Holbrookes own writings on foreign policy. Whenever he needed to drive a point home, particularly on subjects he was in the midst of negotiating, he was quick to put pen to paper. The editors have selected some short pieces on Bosnia that stand out for their passion, and that pass the test of time.这些都不如他本人更立体更有魅力。最令人吃惊的霍尔布鲁克先生自己写的关于外交政策方面的文章,不论什么时候,只要他认为有必要把问题讲清楚,尤其是他正在谈判中的问题,他会立刻用笔纸写下来。编者遴选了他的几篇有关波斯尼亚问题的短文,文章富有,经得住时间的考验。A stellar piece of Holbrookeiana, now 40 years old but more current than ever, is a critique of the lumbering process of foreign-policy making in Washington, DC. The endemic caution, overstaffing and endless circulation of policy papers among dozens of bureaucrats mean that presidents and secretaries of state often lack the guidance they need. “The massive foreign affairs machine built up during the post-war era rumbles on, as ornate and unwieldy as ever,” he wrote after being in the Foreign Service less than ten years. A routine cable on a humanitarian issue needed 27 clearances in Washington before being sent to the field, he discloses. The essay was passed around the state department earlier this year. It still feels accurate, say the editors of this book.霍尔布鲁克先生有一篇非常精的文章,写了已经有40年了,但现在看来比以往任何时候都更具时效性,这就是对华盛顿政府制定外交政策过程拖沓的批评。一贯的过分谨慎,人员冗余,以及几十个官僚无休止地审查政策文件,这都表示总统和国务卿常常无法得到他们所需要的指导。“二战后建立起来的庞大的外交事务机器现在还在隆隆地缓慢运作着,和以往一样零件过多、运作笨拙,”只在驻外事务部待了不到10年的他就这样写到。他披露到,一份关于人权问题的常规电报要在华盛顿经过27次检阅才能送往外地。今年早些时候,这篇文章已分发给国务院。本书编者说,对于文章所提到的问题,现在的情况仍然是这样。Mr Holbrooke accomplished much. He might have done more in South Asia and, perhaps, Washington if he had understood that the bullying tactics he used to forge a peace in Bosnia did not necessarily work elsewhere. “If Richard calls and asks you for something, just say yes,” Henry Kissinger is ed as saying. “If you say no, youll eventually get to yes, but the journey will be very painful.” In Pakistan and Afghanistan it was hard for Mr Holbrooke to even start making calls.霍尔布鲁克先生取得了很多成就。在南亚,他本能做更多,如果他能明白自己辛苦在波斯尼亚建立和平局势所采用的欺凌策略并不是在任何其他地方都受用的,也许他在华盛顿也会有更大作为。“如果理查德打电话来问你什么事情,只管说是,”亨利·基辛格这样说过,“如果你说否,最终你还是要说是,只是这个过程将会非常痛苦。”在巴基斯坦和阿富汗,霍尔布鲁克先生甚至还没来得及打电话。 /201301/222050It can happen to the rich, the famous and the powerful, but if these two entrepeneurs are correct and sweater marks will soon being a thing of the past. Budd Rose on the left is wearing a normal cotton shirt. In a sauna, on the right is his business partner, Oliver Van Emden wearing one of their own creations a fresh max shirt. In this heat, it doesnt take a long to see the difference between the two, just a matter of minutes. Oliver is as sweaty as his colleague. But the fresh max shirt allows moisture to evaporate without leaving a sign. The pair believed that radical woven solution to sweat stain will become the norm the world over.富人,名人,有权有势的人都会遇到这种情况,但如果这两个创业者成功了,汗湿的衬衣就会成为过去。在桑拿房中,Budd Rose穿着的是一件普通棉质衬衫。旁边的试验者是他的合作伙伴,Oliver Van Emden,他穿着的是他们发明的无汗渍衬衫。在这样的温度下,马上就能看出两人的不同。几分钟过后,Oliver和Budd都是大汗淋漓,但无汗渍衬衫使得汗水自动蒸发,没有在衣上留下半点痕迹。这两个人相信,新式的不留汗渍纺织技术将红透全世界。This is for any an man or woman who wears shirts or blouses to work. Uh, you know, whether its for leisure whether they are at work, uniforms, you know, it always keep you looking presentable. We think fresh max is gonna really take off, its that, its a shirt for basically anyone.这是为所有需要在工作中穿着衬衫的男女设计的。无论是在休闲的时候,还是工作的时候,或是需要穿着制的时候,无汗渍衬衫总能让你看上去大方得体。我们认为无汗渍衬衫将来会大卖,它会是每一个人的基本需求。And you never get any your hotter condition than inside a sauna. Yeah.而且,你不可能处在比桑拿房更热的地方了。The trick is in the weave sping any moisture on the inside of the shirt over a large area and allowing it to evaporate away.无汗渍衬衫的秘诀就在于它能在衬衫内侧将汗液大面积平摊并蒸发。Inside the fabric draws the moisture away from the skin, and sps over a large suface area at inner side of the fabric, and then your body acts as an engine of heat which allows some moisture to escape through fabric as vapor. And leave the weave, actually, actively redirects the moisture away from outer fibers. So, actually, the outer fibers dont get wet.衬衫内侧的纤维织物会吸收人体皮肤上的水分,并将汗液大面积展开,然后你的身体就像个火炉子一样将织物上的水分蒸发成气体。气体会透过织物,穿过织物外侧离开人体。因此,外部的织物不会被汗水打湿。The pair spent more than 8 years perfecting the materia. An idea inspired by the hectic social lives of students, dancing and sweating the night away. But the shirts selling at 50 poud each, or 80 dollars. They may soon be dancing again, all the way to the bank.这两个人花费了8年时间研究衬衫材质。他们的灵感来源于学生时代繁忙的社会生活,他们整夜地跳舞,整夜地出汗。现在,他们研制出的衬衫每件售价50或80英镑。他们很快就又有时间跳舞了,跳往赚大钱的金光大道。Stuart McDill, ReutersStuart McDill报道,路透社消息。注:本篇文章英文来自普特论坛,译文属原创,,。201208/195128

Technology Collective behavior Follow my leader科技 集体行为 跟领导走A groups “intelligence” depends in part on its membersignorance群体“智慧”部分依赖于群体成员的“愚昧”HUMAN beings like to think of themselves asthe animal kingdoms smartest alecks.人们总是喜欢将自己看作动物王国中最聪明的。It may come as a surprise to some,therefore, that Iain Couzin of Princeton University believes they havesomething to learn from lesser creatures that move about in a large crowd.然而,令一些人感到惊讶的是,普林斯顿大学的Iain Couzin相信人们能从更低等的、大群活动的动物中学到东西。As he told the AAAS meeting in Washington, DC, groups of animals often make whatlook like wise decisions,正如他在华盛顿AAAS(American Association forthe Advancement of Science,美国科学促进会)召开的会议上所说的,虽然群居动物中的大部分成员对接下来会发生什么一无所知,even when most of the members of those groups areignorant of what is going on.但整个群体却常常做出看起来更明智的决定。Coming to that conclusion was not easy. Beforelessons can be drawn from critters perched on the lower rungs of theevolutionary ladder, their behaviour must first be understood.得出这个结论并不容易。因为必须首先理解这些动物的行为,人们才能借鉴,而由于这些动物处于进化阶梯的较低位置,(人们并不容易理解)。One way to dothis is to tag them with devices that follow them around—motion-capturesensors, radio transmitters or global-positioning-system detectors that can puta precise figure on their movements.要做的这点,首先要用设备为他们打上标签以便跟踪——采用运动传感器、无线电发射装置和全球定位系统的探测器能精确描述它们活动。Unfortunately, it is impossible to tag morethan a few individuals in a herd, flock or swarm.不幸的是,能被标定的个体只是兽群、鸟群或蜂群中的少数。Researchers have thereforetended to extrapolate from these few results by using various computer models.研究者们因此将这些少量数据采用各种电脑模型进行推演。Dr Couzin has done quite a bit of this himself.Couzin士已经完成了一部分工作。Most recently, he has modelledthe behaviour of shoals of fish.最近,他建立了鱼群行为模型。He posited that how they swim will depend oneach individuals competing tendencies to stick close to the others (and thusmove in the same direction as them) while not actually getting too close to anyparticular other fish.他推测鱼群游动的方式有赖于鱼类个体倾向于截住对方,而又不真的靠近对方的竞争方式(因此它们总是同向游动)。It turns out that by fiddling with these tendencies, avirtual shoal can be made to swirl spontaneously in a circle, just like somereal species do.基于这些倾向就归纳出模型,这些模拟的鱼群可以自行转圈巡游,就像真的一样。That is a start. But real shoals do not existto swim in circles.那只是一个开始。不过真实的鱼群并不只是转圈游动。Their purpose is to help their members eat and avoid beingeaten.他们的目的是帮助成员觅食,同时防止被猎食。At any one time, however, only some individuals know about—and can thusreact to—food and threats.然而,无论什么时候,只有一些个体能对食物和威胁做出反应。Dr Couzin therefore wanted to find out how suchtemporary leaders influence the behaviour of the rest.因此,Couzin士想找出这些临时领导如何影响其余个体行为。He discovered that leadership is extremelyefficient.Couzin士发现这种领导方式及其有效。The larger a shoal is, the smaller is the proportion of it thatneeds to know what is actually going on for it to feed and avoid predationeffectively.鱼群越大,需要知道接下来做什么才能有效觅食和避免危险的“领导”比例就越小。Indeed, having too many leaders with conflicting opinions resultsin confusion.的确,领导越多,矛盾观点造成的混乱就越多。At least, that is true in the model. He is now testing it inreality.至少,模型上是这样。他现在正在真实环境下测试模型。Tracking individual fish in a shoal is hard.跟踪记录鱼群中的个体很困难。Fortunately, advances in pattern-recognition software mean it is no longerimpossible.幸运的是,模式识别软件的进步让这变成可能。Systems designed to follow people are now clever enough not only totrack a person in a crowd, but also to tell in which direction his head isturned.为跟踪人类设计的系统已经足够智能,不仅能跟踪人群中的某个人,而且能显示这个人的头转向何方。Since, from above, the oval shape of a human head is not unlike theoblong body of a fish, this software can, with a little tweaking, followpiscine antics, too.因此,尽管鱼类的身体是长条形,与这个软件可以识别的人类椭圆形头部不同,从原理上说,只要稍作修改使之适应鱼类外形即可。Robo fish机器鱼Dr Couzin has been using a program developedby Colin Twomey, a graduate student at his laboratory, to track individual fishin a tank.Couzin士一直在使用他实验室的研究生Colin Twomey开发的程序来记录水池中鱼类个体的行为。The result is not just a model of shoaling fish, but a precisenumerical representation of their actual movements and fields of vision.这个成果不仅是鱼群的模型,更是鱼群真实行动和视野的精确数值反应。That means it is possible to investigate whether real-life fishy leaders have thesame effect on a group as their virtual kin.这就意味着深入研究真实鱼群中的领导们与他们的“模拟亲戚”在鱼群中是否有同样影响变成可能。Alas, merely observing a shoal does not makeit clear which individuals lead and which follow.然而,仅仅只观察一个鱼群并不能清楚地区分哪个是领导,哪个是随从。Instead, Dr Couzin has builta biddable robot three-spined stickleback.作为替代,Couzin士制作了一条能发出命令的机器三棘刺鱼。A preliminary study of a shoal often flesh-and-blood sticklebacks shows that they do indeed mingle with therobot and that they follow its leadership cues as predicted.对一个有十条真实刺鱼鱼群的初步研究显示,他们确实接纳了那条机器鱼,并且接受它的领导指示。He is now making arobot predator to see how the shoal reacts to less benign intruders.他现在正在制作一个机器猎食者,用来观察鱼群对凶猛入侵者的反应。If the models are anything to go by, the bestoutcome for the group—in this case, not being eaten—seems to depend on mostmembers being blissfully unaware of the world outside the shoal and simplytaking their cue from others.如果模型一切正常,那么就可得出对群体来说最好的结果——不会被吃掉——这看起来有赖于大多数成员对鱼群外部世界毫无知觉,仅仅只是接受其他鱼指示的“傻鱼傻福”。This phenomenon, Dr Couzin argues, applies to allmanner of organisms, from individual cells in a tissue to (rather worryingly)voters in the democratic process.Couzin士指出,这个现象符合所有的组织行为,从组织中的个体单位到民主过程中的选民(似乎更令人头痛)。His team has aly begun probing thequestion of voting patterns.他的研究团队已经开始探索选举模式的问题。But is ignorance really political bliss?然而,愚昧真是政治之福吗?DrCouzins models do not yet capture what happens when the leaders themselvesturn out to be sharks.Couzin士的模型还没有涉及领导们自己变成“鲨鱼”会发生什么。 /201301/219159Science and Technology科技Solar heat for oil wells用于油井的太阳热Mirrors in glasshouses can be used to heat stones玻璃房里的镜子.....可以用来加热石头THERE is a lot of energy from ancient sunshine stored in the oil that sits below the deserts of Oman.在Oman的沙漠下面埋藏着石油, 这些石油中储存着来自远古太阳光的丰富能量。There is also a lot of sunshine hitting those deserts today.在今天, 也还是有大量的太阳光照射在这篇沙漠上。A new wrinkle to an established technology should allow some of that current sunshine to be employed to get at more of the ancient stuff.一项已经成熟的科技的新应用能够使用现在的太阳光来得到更多的古老东西。Using heat-in the form of steam-to liberate disobligingly thick and gunky oil which would otherwise stay in the ground is nothing new.利用热--以蒸汽的形式--来释放埋在地下的油腻的稠油已经被人们熟知。Such enhanced-recovery techniques date back to the 1950s and 40% of Californias oil production now depends on steaming subterranean rocks in this way.这种强化开采技术可以追溯到20世纪50年代, 现在加利福尼亚40%的石油产出都是依靠这种方式来蒸馏地下岩石。The steam, however, is made by burning other fossil fuels-normally natural gas-and because heating rock takes a lot of steam, making that steam takes a lot of money.然而, 蒸汽是需要燃烧其他燃料来产生的--一般来说是天然气--因为加热岩石需要很多的蒸气, 那么制造这些蒸汽的成本就会很高。It also adds to the oils climate footprint.这也增加了石油的气候足迹。The amount of gas used means that a barrel of Californian heavy oil gives the stuff from Canadas tar sands a run for its money in terms of associated greenhouse-gas emissions.就相关的温室气体排放来说, 所使用的燃气的总量意味着一桶加利福尼亚重油和从加拿大油砂中提炼的油的排放不相上下。GlassPoint, a small Californian company, thinks it can make steam for oil recovery more cleanly and cheaply by using sunshine to do the heating.加利福尼亚一家小公司GlassPoint认为自己能够利用太阳光加热使蒸汽更清洁更便宜。This sounds surprising.这听起来让人吃惊。Solar-thermal power stations, which employ mirrors to concentrate sunlight on boilers and thus raise steam to generate electricity by turning turbines, are far from cheap compared with gas-fired stations.太阳热发电站利用镜子将太阳光集中到锅炉上并因此产生蒸汽推动涡轮来发电, 这与燃气发电站比起来一点也不便宜。But solar-thermal electricity faces exacting challenges.但是太阳热发电正面临着让人兴奋的挑战。To feed a turbine you need particularly pure steam, which can be a problem if you are in a desert.为了能够推动涡轮, 你需要特别纯净的蒸气, 如果处于沙漠地带那么这将是个问题。And to get the most out of the system you need the steam to be both very hot indeed and available in copious amounts.为了能够充分的利用该系统, 你所需要的蒸气温度必须十分高并且可利用的数量十分充足。Oil wells, GlassPoints founders noticed, are far less demanding consumers in these respects.GlassPoint的创建者们发现, 在这些方面, 油井就不是那么挑剔的消费者。The steam used can be comparatively dirty. Nor does it have to be infernally hot.其所使用的蒸气可以很脏, 温度也不需要达到非常高。And even a small amount of it, added to an existing gas-based recovery process, can make a useful contribution.而且哪怕是向已存在的基于燃气的开采过程中添加一点蒸汽都会产生很大的效果。There are, though, disadvantages to having to work in an oilfield.但是, 在油田中利用太阳光加热产生蒸汽还是有不利之处的。People building solar-thermal power stations prefer sites low in dust.建造太阳热发电站需要位于灰尘密度较低的地方。Those serving the oil industry must go where the rigs are, however dusty and mucky the air.那些务于石油工业的设备必须在钻井平台上, 但是那里空气肮脏。GlassPoint seems to have found a neat solution to this: it puts its mirrors indoors.GlassPoint似乎找到了解决这一问题的有效方法: 将镜子放在室内。Greenhouses are easy to buy, quick to erect and, thanks to off-the-shelf kit designed for the purpose, simple to keep clean, too.温室容易购买, 并且由于是普遍的套件设计, 所以安装快速, 保洁简单。Moreover, sheltering the mirrors from the wind allows those mirrors to be a lot lighter, making them both cheap to build and ship, and easier to turn in order to follow the sun.另外, 由于镜子避免了暴露在风中所以镜子可以更轻便, 使得镜子的生产和运输成本更低并且也更容易随着太阳的位置变动方向。GlassPoints boss, Rod MacGregor, thinks that taking capital costs and the lifetime of the plant into account his firm can produce steam at .78 per million British thermal units (btu), which is .58 a gigajoule.GlassPoint的老板Rod MacGregor认为如果把资本成本和工厂的生命期算在内的话, 他的公司可以以每百万英热单位(btu)3.78美金的价格生产蒸汽, 即十亿焦耳3.58美金。Steam from gas comes in at .79 per million btu.燃气生产的蒸气则达到每百万英热单位(btu)5.79美金。A pilot project in California, he says, has been producing steam as intended since the beginning of the year.Rod MacGregor说从今年年初的时候在加利福尼亚的实验性工厂已将开始按计划运行生产蒸汽。And the company has now signed a deal with Petroleum Development Oman for 7 megawatts of plant-a 16,000-square-metre greenhouse providing some 57 billion btu of steam a year.现在公司正在为Petroleum Development Oman设计一个年产7百万瓦特的工厂--一个16000平方米温室, 每年生产大概570亿英热单位的蒸气。If it pans out, the technology could sp fast.如果该设计交易成功了, 那么这项技术将会快速传播。Mr MacGregor expects Oman to be using 200 trillion btu of steam a year for oil recovery by 2015.MacGregor预计到2015年Oman每年用于采油的蒸气将达到200万亿英热单位蒸汽。Not all of that steam could be solar, but a system which used high-pressure solar steam during the day and low-pressure gas-generated steam by night, to keep the pipes hot, might get 80% of its power from the sun.尽管不是所有的蒸气都是太阳能生产的, 但是白天使用高压太阳能生产蒸汽, 晚上使用低压燃气生产蒸气来维持管道高温的系统可能其80%的能源都来自于太阳。That would free up a lot of gas for export-or for turning into petrochemicals.这样可以节约出很多燃气供出口--或者转而应用到石油化工中。Enhanced oil recovery currently uses a quite remarkable amount of energy: 1.7 quadrillion btu of gas around the world every year, according to GlassPoint.当下驱油所使用的能源总量惊人: 根据GlassPoint统计, 每年全球在这方面使用的燃气大约为1.7千兆英热单位。Not all of that is in sunny places, but there are many deserts besides Omans that have oil beneath them.虽然不是所有的油井都在阳光普照的地方, 但是除了Oman以外还有很多的存有油井的沙漠。The paradoxical possibility, then, is that solar-thermal technology might end up producing a lot more oil than electricity in the years to come.那么也许会有一个似是而非的可能--未来的某一天, 太阳热技术开采的石油会比电开采的石油多很多。 /201211/210049

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