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新疆维吾尔自治区维吾尔医医院减肥瘦身多少钱新疆医科大学第五附属医院激光去胎记多少钱How might future historians judge a British to decision to leave the EU in the referendum on June 23? It might well be seen as the moment when the west started to unravel. That is why Barack Obama, US president, is not merely entitled to present his views on “Brexit As leader of the west, he must do so. 未来的历史学家可能会如何评判英国3日公投中决定脱离欧盟(EU)?这很有可能被视为一个西方开始解体的时刻。这就是为何美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)不仅有权陈述他对“英国脱欧”的看法,而且作为西方世界的一位领袖,他必须这么做The choice the UK faces in June is whether to exercise its option to leave the EU now. So long as it is a member, it will always have this option. But it will not be granted the choice to rejoin after it has left. The moment to exercise a perpetual option is when its value is not just high, but unlikely to become much higher. The UK should vote to leave if, and only if, it is sure it will be better off than if it postponed the choice. That is not the case now. It might never be. 英国在今月面临的选择是:是否现在就行使脱离欧盟的选择权。只要它还是欧盟成员国,它就永远有这个选择。但一旦英国脱离欧盟,就不会再被赋予重新加入的选择。行使永久期权应该是在它的价值不仅高、而且不太可能变得更高时。当且仅当英国确定相对于推迟作出选择,现在就脱离欧盟会让英国的境况变得更好时,英国才应投票离开。现在并不是这种情况。或许这种情况永远不会出现Indeed, those in favour of remaining, like me, would argue that, far from bringing gains, exercising the option to depart would deliver immediate losses. This, proponents of Brexit complain, is “project fear That objection is absurd. Avoiding needless and costly risks is how adults differ from children. 实际上,那些像我一样持英国留在欧盟的人认为,行使脱欧选择权不会带来好处,反而会造成立即的损失。脱欧持者们抱怨称,这是“恐惧计划project fear)。这种反对是荒谬的。避免不必要的、代价高昂的风险是成年人区别于儿童的标志Possible economic costs of leaving are laid out in the Treasury’s excellent analysis, published this week. It argues that the UK would be significantly worse off under any of the three most plausible alternatives to membership: membership of the European Economic Area (like Norway), a bilateral trade agreement (like Canada) or shared membership of the World Trade Organisation (like Japan). Under the first, the loss, relative to a baseline of continued membership, would be between 3.4 and 4.3 per cent of gross domestic product by 2030; under the second, it would be between 4.6 and 7.8 per cent; under the third, it would be between 5.4 per cent and 9.5 per cent. Should we believe these numbers? No. But the direction is right and the magnitudes probably too small. In sum, the UK economy would be less open to trade and foreign direct investment than otherwise, if it left the EU. This would then damage its level of productivity and so its output. 英国财政部在上周公布的精分析中列出了脱欧可能付出的经济代价。分析认为,如果抛弃欧盟成员国身份,不论英国在如下三种看似最合理的替代选择中选哪一个,境况都将显著变糟:加入欧洲经济区(European Economic Area)(像挪威那样)、缔结双边贸易协议(像加拿大那样)、或者仅依靠世界贸易组织(WTO)成员国身份(像日本那样)。在第一种选择下,相对于继续留在欧盟,030年,其损失将相当于英国国内生产总GDP).4%.3%;在第二种选择下,损失在GDP.6%7.8%之间;在第三种选择下,损失在GDP.4%.5%之间。我们是否应相信这些数据?不。但其方向是正确的,只不过可能低估了损失规模。总的来看,与留在欧盟相比,脱欧后的英国经济对贸易和外国直接投资的开放程度将降低。这将进而损害英国的生产率水平以及产出Some proponents of Brexit argue that this is incorrect, because the UK economy would become more deregulated and dynamic outside the EU. Yet the UK is aly one of the least regulated large high-income economies. Furthermore, the worst UK regulations those on land use are homegrown. Again, the biggest intervention in the labour market in recent years has been the government’s decision to impose a big jump in the minimum wage. (See charts.) 持脱欧的一些人认为,这么说不对,因为脱欧后的英国经济将解除更多监管,也更有活力。然而,英国已是监管最为宽松的大型高收入经济体之一了。另外,英国最糟糕的监管规定(有关土地使用的规定)是英国自产的。再者,最近几年对劳动力市场的最大干预,是英国政府决定大幅上调最低工资。(见图表) Proponents of Brexit will also argue that the UK economy need not become less open. But this argument has a catch. The more the UK wished to preserve its privileged access to the EU market (by becoming a member of the EEA) the less sovereignty it would regain. It would not gain control over immigration and would have to accept single market regulations without any influence on them. If, to take an opposite extreme, the UK chose the WTO option in its trade with the EU, but decided unilaterally to keep its tariffs against the EU at zero, it would be obliged to offer the same deal to all other WTO members. Such unilateral free trade is an option. But it would also remove virtually all the bargaining chips needed to negotiate preferential access to non-EU markets. This is quite apart from the fact that the UK would have far more clout in such negotiations if operating via the EU than if acting all on its own. 脱欧持者还会辩称,英国经济不一定会降低开放程度。但这种观点存在误导。英国越是希望保留其进入欧盟市场的特权——通过成为欧洲经济区成员实现——其能够重新获得的主权就越少。英国不会获得对移民的控制权,而且将不得不接受单一市场规则,却对后者产生不了任何影响。举一个极端的反面例子:如果英国在其与欧盟的贸易中选择WTO规则,但又单方面决定保持对欧盟的零关税政策,那它将不得不向WTO所有其他成员国提供同样的优惠。这样的单边自由贸易是一种选择。但这样做将使英国失去与非欧盟市场谈判优惠进入条件所需的所有筹码。与之截然相反,比起单打独斗,通过欧盟进行协商,可以让英国在此类谈判中获得大得多的影响力Another objection is that the EU is becoming a less important market for the UK. Yet the absolute increase in UK exports to the EU over the 10 years to 2014 was still far larger than to any other market even though the growth rate was far slower. This is because the base is so huge. The UK is also the largest recipient of inward foreign direct investment within the EU. It is inconceivable that the attractions of the UK to investors would not be diminished if it did not have access to the EU market on a par with that of members. (See chart.) 另一种反对意见认为,对英国而言,欧盟这个市场的重要性正在降低。然而,在截014年的10年间,英国对欧盟出口的绝对增长仍远远大于对其他任何市场的出口增长,尽管增速慢得多。而增速较慢是因为基数太大。英国也是欧盟内接收外国直接投资最多的国家。如果英国没有与欧盟成员国同样的进入欧盟市场的权利,很难想象,英国对投资者的吸引力不会下降(见图表)These arguments, however, relate only to the long term. Despite absurd attempts to deny this fact, it is also true that nobody knows what would follow a vote for Brexit. First, proponents of Brexit do not agree on which alternative to pursue. Second, we do not know what the UK’s partners might want. Some foolishly assume that latter will be generous. But a partner who has been repudiated is unlikely to be generous in a divorce. Moreover, the overwhelming aim of the rest of the EU will be to keep it together. They will want to make any exit painful. Finally, Brexit will mean a long period of turmoil and uncertainty. The financial crisis has shown how costly such uncertainty can be, not just for a few years, but far into the future. 然而,这些观点只与长期相关。虽然有人荒唐地试图否认,但没人知道英国退欧之后会发生什么,这也是事实。首先,退欧持者对于退欧后应选哪种替代选择意见并不一致。第二,我们不知道英国的合作伙伴想要什么。有人愚蠢地认为,他们将会很慷慨。但一个被抛弃的伙伴不大可能在分道扬镳后还对你慷慨。此外,欧盟其他国家的压倒性目标将是保持欧盟完整性。他们将会让任何退出都付出痛苦的代价。最后,退欧意味着英国将迎来长时期的动荡和不确定性。金融危机已经展现出这种不确定性会带来多大的代价,不仅殃及近几年,对遥远的未来都会产生影响For all such reasons, foreign friends are appalled by the potential damage done by Brexit and not just to the UK, but more widely. Foremost among these is the US. It behoves those who prate of violated UK sovereignty to remember that, had the US not become engaged, the UK would now be a Nazi or Soviet satellite. US resources and will sustained the west during the second world war and the cold war. Pressed itself, the US desires a prosperous and outward-looking Europe, capable of sharing burdens in the decades ahead. The US has long regarded the UK’s active participation in the continent, of which the latter will always be a part, as a vital interest. The UK is not the great power of the past. But its actions still have consequences. It is not and must not wish to be a European Singapore. Only the west’s enemies would welcome such a folly. 鉴于所有这些原因,外国朋友害怕英国退欧对英国以及更广范地区造成的潜在破坏。首当其冲的就是美国。那些空谈英国主权遭侵犯的人应当记住,如果美国不介入,现在的英国或许是纳粹国家或者苏联的卫星囀?美国的资源和意志在二战以及冷战期间撑着西方国家。本身感到压力的美国希望看到一个繁荣、开放的欧洲,希望欧洲能够在未来几十年与其分担负担。美国长期以来一直将英国积极参与欧洲大陆事务(并且英国将永远是欧洲大陆的一个部分)视为重大利益。英国不再是昔日的日不落帝国。但其所作所为仍会产生巨大影响。英国不是(也绝不能希望成为)欧洲的新加坡。只有西方的敌人才会对如此愚蠢的行为表示欢迎How do most informed Americans, Australians or, for that matter, other Europeans, react when they see the UK considering the end of a relationship that gives it a voice in the direction of the continent, while being free from so many of the burdens and mistakes of our partners? They think it mad. Nicely, but firmly, Mr Obama should say so. 当看到英国正考虑结束一段关系——而这段关系使它在对欧洲大陆发展方向拥有发言权的同时,又不用承担太多负担及伙伴国的错误——大多数明智的美国人、澳大利亚人或者(就此事而言)其他欧洲人会作何反应?他们会认为英国疯了。奥巴马应当温和而坚定地说出来(编者注:奥巴马上周访英时表示,如果英国离开欧盟,英国“在欧洲的影响力会减弱,在全球的影响力也会随之减弱”)。来 /201604/439691乌鲁木齐达坂城区麦格假体隆胸多少钱 Myanmar has released more than 100 political detainees under an amnesty that was the first official act by Aung San Suu Kyi, a former political prisoner herself and now the most significant figure in the new civilian government.根据一项特赦令,缅甸释放了100多名政治犯。这是昂山素季采取的第一个官方行动。昂山素季也曾经是一名政治犯,但现在是缅甸新文人政府中最重要的人物。The state-run Global New Light of Myanmar newspaper said Saturday that 113 political detainees were released across the country. Human-rights groups estimate that Myanmar has had about 500 ;prisoners of conscience; in detention.缅甸官方报纸《缅甸环球新光报》星期六报道,全缅甸共有113名政治犯获释。人权组织估计,缅甸在押的“良心犯”大约有500人。Families and friends of the detainees began gathering at prisons after Aung San Suu Kyi announced Thursday that prisoners would be released in conjunction with Buddhist new year celebrations in the coming days. Supporters greeted prisoners who were freed Friday with flowers, cheers and hugs. 在佛教新年即将到来之前,昂山素季上星期四宣布要释放政治犯。在押政治犯的家人和朋友以及持者星期五手持鲜花,热情欢呼,迎接良心犯的获释,同他们拥抱。In the midst of the celebrations, however, a court in the central city of Mandalay convicted two peace activists of association with the Kachin Independence Army, an outlawed guerrilla group in far northern Myanmar.但是,在庆祝政治犯获释的同时,缅甸中部曼德勒市的一家法院裁定两名与克钦独立军有关的和平活动人士有罪。克钦独立军是缅甸北部边缘地区的一个被取缔的游击队组织。The two Buddhists8-year-old Zaw Zaw Latt and 34-year-old Pyint Phyu Latt, members of an interfaith organization—say they were on a charity mission.28岁的僧侣昭昭拉和34的僧侣威玉拉是一个跨宗教组织的成员。他们说,他们是在做慈善工作。来 /201604/437104China’s strategy to contain North Korea’s nuclear ambitions faces a crucial test in the coming days as the UN Security Council presses ahead with a resolution, and possible new sanctions, against China’s neighbour and sometime ally.中国遏制朝鲜核抱负的战略将在未来几天面临关键考验。目前联合国安理会正推动通过决议,可能对中国的这个邻国(有时还是盟友)施加新的制裁。Experts on both sides of the Pacific say Beijing has been surprised by the US’s tough response to Pyongyang’s testing of a nuclear warhead in January and launch this month of a long-range rocket. The US is asking China to impose sweeping economic sanctions on Pyongyang, including an oil embargo.太平洋两岸的专家们表示,美国对平壤今月份核弹头试验和本月发射远程火箭做出了强硬的回应,这让北京方面感到意外。美国要求中国对平壤施加包括石油禁运在内的全面经济制裁。“My sense from talking with the Chinese is that they were quite surprised that the US came to them with such a big ask,says Bonnie Glaser of Washington-based think-tank the Center for International and Strategic Studies. “They were expecting something along the lines of what had been done in the past, a marginally tougher UN Security Council resolution and tough rhetoric, and move on.”总部位于华盛顿的智库——战略与国际问题研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的葛来仪(Bonnie Glaser)表示:“从与中方人士的谈话中,我感到他们对美国提出这么高的要求感到相当意外。他们预计会像过去那样,联合国安理会通过稍微强硬一点的决议,做出严厉谴责,然后事情就过去了。”One measure Washington has rolled out is a proposal to base a new anti-missile defence system in South Korea. This has infuriated Beijing, which says the Terminal High-Altitude Air Defence (THAAD) platform could threaten its own nuclear deterrent.华盛顿已经推出的一个举措是,提议在韩国部署新的反导弹防御系统。这激怒了北京,后者表示,末段高空区域防御系统(THAAD)平台可能威胁到中国的核威慑力量。The US has also said it will press ahead with tough unilateral secondary sanctions, with bills working their way through Congress that could target some Chinese banks and companies working with North Korea.美国还表示,将推动出台严厉的二级单边制裁措施,美国国会正在审议的一些法案可能针对某些与朝鲜有业务来往的中资和公司。The measures are also intended to stiffen Beijing’s resolve and make it consider cutting off its economic lifeline to Pyongyang. Beijing, however, not only fears the consequences of further antagonising North Korea, it is also anxious to prevent the downfall of the regime.这些措施也意在强化北京方面的决心,促使后者考虑切断平壤的经济命脉。然而,北京方面不仅担心进一步激怒朝鲜的后果,而且还急于阻止朝鲜政权倒台。“North Korea is a nuclear-armed country on the brink of collapse,says Tong Zhao, an expert on nuclear disarmament at the Beijing-based Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre.位于北京的卡内基-清华全球政策中心(Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre)核裁军专家赵通表示:“朝鲜是一个处于崩溃边缘的核武国家。”“Making it into an enemy is the last thing China wants to see, because China can be directly threatened. I think it is unfair for the international community to make that demand on China.”“把它变成敌人是中国最不想看到的事情,因为中国可能直接受到威胁。我认为,国际社会对中国提出这种要求是不公平的。”Beijing appears to have adopted a policy of publicly paying lip service to tougher sanctions while privately working the levers behind the scenes. Wang Yi, foreign minister, told Reuters in Munich last week that the UN should adopt a resolution to ensure “North Korea will pay the necessary price and to show there is a consequence for its behaviour中国政府采取的政策似乎是口头上公开持对朝鲜实施更严厉制裁,私下里却在幕后斡旋。中国外交部长王毅上周在慕尼黑告诉路透社(Reuters),联合国应出台一项决议,确保“朝鲜将付出必要的代价并表明朝鲜要为其行为承担后果”。The US has been emboldened by the recent Iran nuclear deal, which showed how tough sanctions can work to change the behaviour of “rogue states But these arguments do not appear to be working in Beijing, where there is fear for stability on the Korean peninsula.最近生效的伊朗核协议使美国得到鼓舞,该协议表明,严厉制裁能够改变“无赖国家”的行为。但这些主张对中国似乎没有说力,中国对朝鲜半岛稳定感到担忧。“Yes they want de-nuclearisation but only under the precondition of the preservation of stability in North Korea,says Ms Glaser. “The Chinese have no stomach for regime change in North Korea.”“没错,他们希望实现无核化,但前提条件是维护朝鲜的稳定,”葛来仪表示,“中国不希望朝鲜发生政权更迭。”When John Kerry, US secretary of state, travelled to Beijing and urged the Chinese government to embargo oil shipments to North Korea, he was rebuffed by Mr Wang, according to experts.据专家称,美国国务卿约翰克里(John Kerry)访问北京并敦促中国政府对朝鲜实施石油禁运,遭到了王毅的拒绝。Meanwhile, the opposite approach seems to be in the air in Beijing. Cui Lei, a researcher at the Beijing-based China Institute of International Studies, wrote a widely followed opinion piece in a Singapore newspaper last month advocating treating North Korea similarly to India and Pakistan, which both tested nuclear bombs in 1998.与此同时,中国似乎在试探相反的策略。北京中国国际问题研究院(China Institute of International Studies)研究员崔磊上月在一份新加坡报纸上发表了一篇广受关注的文章,持像对待印度和巴基斯坦那样对待朝鲜。前两个国家曾在1998年进行核弹实验。“We should opt our India-Pakistan approach: acquiescence in North Korea’s nuclearisation, while refusing to legalise it,he wrote.他写道:“我认为,可以考虑采取印巴模式,默认朝鲜的拥核事实,但不给予其合法地位。”来 /201602/427480乌市沙依巴克区激光脱腋毛多少钱

乌鲁木齐省妇保医院治疗腋臭多少钱U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry plans to travel to Moscow next week for talks with Russian Vladimir Putin about the drawdown and the new push for peace in Syria.美国国务卿克里计划下周前往莫斯科,与俄罗斯总统普京讨论俄军从叙利亚撤离的问题,同时继续推动叙利亚的和平进程。Kerry said he would talk with both Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov about how to move forward with the process of bringing a political solution to the five-year conflict.克里说,他将与普京以及俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫举行会谈,商讨如何推动和平进程,找到结束叙利年内战的政治解决方案。Fighting in Syria has drastically declined with a cessation of hostilities in place for about three weeks.结束敌对行动的协议生效大约三周以来,叙利亚境内的武装冲突大幅减少。But Kerry also warned that lasting peace is impossible if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad remains in power.但克里警告说,如果叙利亚总统阿萨德继续掌权,就不可能实现持久和平。The first Russian troops to leave Syria arrived back home Tuesday to cheering crowds.首批撤离叙利亚的俄罗斯军队于星期二回国,受到民众的欢呼。Putin made the surprise announcement Monday that the bulk of his forces will leave now that they have achieved their mission in Syria, which began in late September.普京星期一出人意料地宣布,俄罗斯军队已完成在叙利亚的使命,因此大部分军队将撤离叙利亚。俄罗斯是从去年9月底开始在叙利亚采取军事行动的。来 /201603/431845哈密激光祛胎记多少钱 European Union foreign and defense ministers will meet late Monday in Luxembourg to discuss a plan to send security personnel to Tripoli to help train police and border guards for Libya’s new unity government.欧盟成员国外长和国防部长星期一晚间将在卢森堡举行会谈,讨论向的黎波里派遣安全人员的计划,帮助利比亚新组建的团结政府训练警察和边防人员。The security mission will only go ahead if requested by the Libyan Government of National Accord. Its first phase is to be restricted just to the Libyan capital, Tripoli.只有得到利比亚全国团结政府的邀请,欧盟才能执行这项安全使命。计划第一阶段的实施将只限于首都的黎波里。There is a growing urgency for Libya to be stabilized, with anxiety mounting that people-smugglers will exploit the chaos in the country and as many as 270,000 migrants may seek to travel across the Mediterranean from Libya to Italy this year. That would prompt a new phase in a migration crisis roiling Europe.利比亚的稳定日益迫切。外界担心人口偷运者会利用利比亚的混乱局面,今年将会有多7万移民从利比亚经由地中海前往意大利,让欧洲移民危机雪上加霜。Western fears are rising also about the expansion of an affiliate of the Islamic State terror group in Libya. U.S. officials told VOA they estimate the affiliate now has 6,000 fighters, mainly Tunisians and sub-Saharan Africans.此外,西方国家越来越担心伊斯兰国一个分组织在利比亚的壮大。美国官员对美国之音说,估计该分目前已拥有6000名战斗人员,大多是突尼斯人和撒哈拉以南的非洲人。The Libyan government has not given the green-light for the security mission.利比亚政府还没有对欧盟的这项安全使命表示认可。来 /201604/438154新疆医科大学第五附属医院纹眉毛多少钱

新疆石油管理局职工总医院激光去痘多少钱Human Rights Watch said Thursday that both sides in the conflict in Ukraine have indiscriminately attacked schools, which could amount to a war crime.人权观察星期四说,乌克兰冲突双方都不加区别地袭击学校,这样做可以等同于战争罪。In a report entitled “Studying Under Fire,the rights group documented how both the Ukrainian military and Russian-backed rebels have carried out attacks on schools and used them for military purposes, including basing troops or weapons in or near schools.人权观察发表题为《在战火下学习》的报告,记录了乌克兰军队和由俄罗斯持的乌克兰反政府武装袭击学校,把学校用于军事目的,包括在校园或附近地区驻扎军队或存放武器。Yulia Gorbunova, the HRW researcher who authored the report, said this happened on a wide scale in eastern Ukraine.撰写这份报告的人权观察研究员戈尔布诺娃说,这种行为在乌克兰东部广泛存在。According to data in the report provided by the Ukrainian Ministry of Education, 119 schools and kindergartens in its areas were damaged in fighting between April 2014 and November 2015. De facto rebel authorities reported damage to nearly 900 schools in their areas during the same period.乌克兰教育部提供的一份报告里的数据显示,014月到20151月,乌克兰政府控制地区有119所学校和幼儿园受到战火破坏。反政府武装报告说,在其控制区内,同一时期有将00所学校遭到破坏。HRW’s Gorbunova said both the government and rebels are open to discussions about the right’s group’s findings.戈尔布诺娃说,乌克兰政府和反政府武装都愿意就人权观察的调查结果进行讨论。HRW urged both sides to take concrete actions to deter the military use of schools.人权观察敦促乌克兰双方采取具体行动,不再把学校用做军事目的。来 /201602/425857 石河子大学医学院第二附属医院做双眼皮多少钱新疆石油管理局乌鲁木齐医院隆鼻多少钱

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