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时间:2020年01月28日 06:48:24

Student demonstrators have ended their siege of Taiwans legislature, allowing a peaceful return to lawmaking and ending a challenge to President Ma Ying-jeou and his plans for a trade pact with China.台湾学生抗议者占领立法院的行动宣告结束,立法院终于恢复了平静,台湾领导人马英九和两岸贸协议所受的挑战也算告一段落。But the three-week standoff over the ruling Nationalist Partys plans for a services trade accord - and, more broadly, relations with China - has altered the political landscape, sending a not particularly welcome message to the islands two main political parties, and to Beijing as well.但这场因贸协议和两岸关系引发的持续三周的对峙却改变了台湾的政治版图,向台湾两大政党和中国大陆政府传递出一个不太友好的信号。Mr. Mas Nationalists and the main opposition Democratic Progressive Party are both losers, analysts say, though to different degrees. China may have to change its tactics to win over hearts and minds in Taiwan, aly a difficult task on an island that displays considerable distrust of Beijing and is increasingly fearful of the mainlands economic clout.分析人士认为,马英九领导的执政党国民党和主要反对党民进党都是输家,只是程度不同而已。中国大陆可能需要改变策略争取台湾的持,但考虑到台湾岛内对大陆政府极不信任,对大陆在台湾的经济影响力也越来越担忧,怀柔台湾绝非易事。On Thursday night the last of the student-led demonstrators filed out of the Legislative Yuan after a final effort to scrub down the walls that had been plastered with banners and slogans opposing the president and the China pact. They had at least won a concession of some level of oversight of the deal stitched together by the Nationalists and Beijing.上周四晚上,最后一拨抗议学生撤出立法院,他们在离开前清洗了墙壁上的反马英九和反贸协议的横幅和标语。学生们至少赢得了部分妥协,政府承诺对贸协议施加一定程度的监督。The president may still get his trade pact with China - a key policy that he has pushed hard to get and one that is widely seen as a boon to the economy. But his disastrously low support in the polls has been dented even further as his party looks warily ahead at important electoral contests this year and in 2016.马英九仍可能贯彻贸协议,这是他卖力推进的一项关键政策,也被普遍视为对台湾经济很有裨益。不过马英九的民调持率非常低,而且进一步下滑,他所在的国民党正忧心忡忡地等待着今年016年的重要选举Relations between Taiwan and China have entered a new phase, said Lo Chih-cheng, associate professor at Soochow Universitys political science department. They will become more complicated.东吴大学(Soochow University)政治学系副教授罗致政说,两岸关系已进入一个新的阶段,会变得更加复杂。China has preferred to deal with the Nationalists, a party that has tried to find a way to keep important economic ties with China on an even course and avoid the bitter wrangling seen under eight years of Democratic Progressive Party rule prior to Mr. Mas election as president in 2008.Reuters马英九中国大陆更愿意与国民党打交道。国民党希望平稳地找到一条与中国大陆保持经济联系的途径,避免民进党掌舵的八年里与中国大陆发生的龃龉008年民进党下台,马英九代表国民党上位执政。Beijing has reached out to certain more pragmatic factions within the opposition DPP that have acknowledged the key role of Chinas huge economy in Taiwans own prosperity. But it will now find that the political scene is more fractured, with multiple players taking a role in the public debate on how to deal with China.北京方面还向民进党内部的务实派伸出橄榄枝,这些务实派并不否认庞大的内地经济对台湾繁荣举足轻重的作用。但中国大陆将会发现,台湾的政治格局已经变得更加复杂,在如何处理两岸关系的公共讨论中,许多人粉墨登场,发表意见。Meanwhile, the academic said, the Nationalists have lost support among younger voters, many of them backers of the students tactics to block the legislature from approving the services pact.这名学者说,与此同时,国民党失去了年轻选民的持,很多年轻选民都持学生占领立法院不让贸协议过审的战术The Nationalist Party is the big loser, said Mr. Lo, adding that the presidents efforts to arrange a breakthrough meeting with Communist Party leader Xi Jinping - as well as other accords with China before he steps down in 2016 - now look like mission impossible.罗致政说,两党之中,国民党是大输家。他还说,马英九想要与中共领导人习近平安排一次历史性会晤(另外他还想在2016年卸任之前与中国大陆签署其他协议),现在看来这已经是“不可能的任务”了。Wang Yeh-lih, chairman of the political science department at National Taiwan University, agreed.国立台湾大学(National Taiwan University)政治学系主任王业立对此表示赞同The Kuomintang has lost an entire generation of supporters. There were not too many (among younger voters) to begin with and now there will be even fewer, he said.王业立说,国民党已经失去了整整一代人的持者;本来持国民党的年轻人就不太多,现在就更少了。But both men argued the DPP also came up short in the standoff. They were not able to set an agenda. They are not leaders, but followers, said Mr. Lo不过,两人也都表示,民进党在这次对峙中的表现也不怎么样。罗致政说,他们没有设定议程的能力,他们不是领导者,而是跟随者。The DPP chooses a new party leader next month as it prepares for important municipal elections later this year and the next presidential contest in 2016. Who takes the helm will be critical and voters will want to see whether the Nationalists turn to candidates that have not been too closely identified with China business interests.民进党下个月将选出一位新的党主席,并且在为今年晚些时候非常重要的地方公职人员选举以及2016年的总统选举做准备。谁能赢得党主席选举将是一个至关重要的因素,而且选民们希望看到,国民党是否会推出与大陆商业利益没有太多关联的候选人。And another factor to watch will be whether the student leaders opt to form another party.另外一个需要注意的因素是,学生领袖会不会选择另外成立一个政党。No matter what, the standoff has led to important changes, according to another academic.另外一名学者说,无论如何,这次对峙已经带来了重要的变化China might get the message that we place a rather high value on democracy, said Liao Da-chi, of the Institute of Political Science at National Sun Yat-sen University. Perhaps the mainland will be alert to this.台湾国立中山大学(National Sun Yat-sen University)政治所的廖达琪说,中国大陆可能会得到这样一个讯息:台湾相当重视民主。他还说,或许这会让大陆有所警醒。来 /201404/287698

David Cameron, Britain’s prime minister, is putting in place plans to hold on to power and deliver his promised referendum on EU membership even if he fails to win an outright majority in a knife-edge general election on Thursday.英国首相戴维#8226;卡梅David Cameron)正制定计划以谋求继续掌权,并打算即使不能在大选中赢得压倒性多数席位,也要按照此前承诺,就英国是否脱离欧盟(EU)举行公投。英国大选将于周四举行,结果仍十分难以预测。But opposition Labour party leader Ed Miliband is making similar plans to form a minority government and could become prime minister even if he finishes second, thanks to the expected support of the separatist Scottish National party, which is forecast to win by a landslide north of the border.不过,反对党工党(Labour)的领袖埃#8226;米利班德(Ed Miliband)也在制定类似计划,寻求组建一个少数党政府。他的选票即使落后于卡梅伦,仍有可能成为英国首相,因为奉行分离主义的苏格兰国家Scottish National Party)预计会持米利班德,而该党预计会在英国北部取得压倒性胜利。Opinion polls put the Conservatives and Labour neck-and-neck on about 34 points each, promising one of the most uncertain outcomes for decades in a British election, which until 2010 usually delivered a clear parliamentary majority to one of the two main parties.民调显示,保守党(Conservatives)和工Labour)的持率旗鼓相当,均4%左右。这一局面令此次大选很可能成为数十年来英国大选中结果最难确定的一次。在2010年以前,英国两大主要政党中的一家通常会在大选中赢得明确的议会多数席位。The Tories insist they detect some last-minute momentum in their favour. Allies of the Conservative leader say Mr Cameron would “move quicklyto begin talks with his current coalition partners, the pro-European Liberal Democrats, if he emerges with the most seats on May 7.保守党人士坚称,大选前最后一刻的选情中有一些利于他们的迹象。卡梅伦的盟友表示,如果卡梅日赢得最多席位,他会“尽快采取行动”,与现有联盟伙伴、亲欧洲的自由民主党Libreal Democrats)展开磋商。The prime minister made clear yesterday that his plan to hold an “in-outreferendum by 2017 on Britain’s EU membership was a red line, saying: “I would not lead a government that doesn’t have that referendum in law and carried out.”周日,卡梅伦明确表示,017年以前就英国是否脱离欧盟开展公投,是他的最后底线。他说:“我不会领导一个法律上不认可也不实施这一公投的政府。”Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg signalled he could give Mr Cameron his referendum in exchange for his own party’s red lines, including more spending on schools, healthcare and a “fairerdeficit reduction plan.自由民主党领导人尼克#8226;克雷Nick Clegg)则表示,他可能会持卡梅伦的公投计划,以换取推行自己所在党派的政治主张底线——包括加大对学校、医疗保健的开,以及提高减赤方案“公平程度”。The FT’s election calculator gives Mr Cameron 274 seats and Mr Miliband 270 both well short of the 325 target for a House of Commons majority leaving both dependent on the backing of other parties.按照英国《金融时报》大选计算器的估计,卡梅伦预计会获得274个席位,米利班德预计会获70个席位,都将大大低于获得议会下院多数席位所需25个席位。这一局面意味着双方都需要得到其他政党的持。If Mr Cameron emerges as the leader of the biggest party he is expected to begin talks with the Lib Dems and also the Democratic Ulster Unionist party, which is demanding more public spending in Northern Ireland.如果卡梅伦成为议会最大政党的领导人,预计他会启动与自由民主党及民主统一DUP)的磋商。民主统一党的主张是要求加大对北爱尔兰的公共开。Some Conservatives expect him to make his move on Friday, the day after polling day, to establish momentum, but even Lib Dem and DUP support may not take him over the finishing line.部分保守党人预计,卡梅伦会在投票日之后的周五开始行动造势。然而,即使他得到自由民主党和民主统一党的持,可能也无法确保取得最终胜利。The SNP, which is opposed to austerity and wants to scrap Britain’s nuclear deterrent, has said it would help Mr Miliband into power in a hung parliament and “lock David Cameron out of Downing Street苏格兰国家党已经表示,如果出现“无多数议会hung parliament)局面,该党会帮助米利班德掌权,“将戴维#8226;卡梅伦锁在唐宁街(Downing Street)之外”。苏格兰国家党反对英国实施紧缩政策,并希望英国放弃核威慑。It has built on the momentum of last year’s independence referendum which it lost by 45 to 55 per cent and polls suggest it could win most of the 59 Scottish seats at Westminster.去年的苏格兰公投令苏格兰国家党声势大振——尽管那次公投以45%5%的结果没有取得成功。民调显示,该党可能会赢得苏格兰在英国议9个席位中的大多数。来 /201505/373433

As he appeals to the British public to vote him in as prime minister, the leader of the opposition proposes collecting new data to provide a better picture of how the country is doing. “Wellbeing can’t be measured by money or traded in markets,he says. He adds, “We measure all kinds of things but the only thing we don’t measure is the thing that matters most.”当他呼吁英国公众投票选他当首相时,反对党领导人提议收集新数据,以便更好地了解英国的国情。“福祉无法用金钱衡量,也不能在市场上交易,”他说。他补充说,“我们衡量各种各样的事物,但唯一没有衡量的是那最重要的东西。”All of the preceding paragraph is true, except for one detail: the first ation is from David Cameron, then leader of the opposition, in 2006. The second is from Ed Miliband, the current leader of the opposition, a couple of weeks ago. Both men are united, it seems, by a feeling that the most familiar economic measuring stick, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), just isn’t up to the job. Cameron wanted to gather data on wellbeing or happiness; Miliband wants a “cost of livingindex. Few reasonable people can object to gathering timely and authoritative economic and social statistics, yet Miliband and Cameron have managed the impressive feat of being cynical and naive at the same time.上述段落的所有内容都是真实的,只有一个细节例外:第一个引语是2006年戴#8226;卡梅David Cameron)所说,当时他是反对党领袖。第二个是现任反对党领导人埃#8226;米利班德(Ed Miliband)几个星期前所讲。两人看起来都有一种相同的感觉:人们最熟悉的经济衡量标尺国民生产总GDP)已经不合用。卡梅伦要收集关于福祉或幸福的数据;米利班德想要一个“生活成本”指数。没有多少理性的人反对收集及时、权威的经济和社会统计数据,但米利班德和卡梅伦两人做到了不容易的事,那就是表现得既犬儒又幼稚。The cynical motives in both cases are plain enough as were, for example, Nicolas Sarkozy’s when, as French president, he commissioned some alternative economic measures that just happened to be more flattering to France. As the leader of a party with a reputation for liking free markets and low taxes, Cameron wanted to soften his image and suggest a broader, more caring perspective. Miliband is trying to replace a government that is presiding over a sudden uptick in GDP, so naturally he wishes to point the spotlight somewhere else.这两种情况下的犬儒动机是显而易见的——就像尼古拉#8226;萨科Nicolas Sarkozy)还是法国总统的时候那样,他委托出炉了一些另类的经济衡量指标,而这些指标恰好展现法国的长处。作为以崇尚自由市场和低税收出名的保守党的领导人,卡梅伦希望软化自己的形象,暗示一种更包容更关爱的视角。米利班德正试图取代一个成功推动英国GDP突然出现起色的政府,因此,他很自然地想把聚光灯投射到别的地方。The naivety requires more statistical digging to uncover, and it’s in three parts. The first point is that many of these data aly exist. The Office for National Statistics asks questions about wellbeing as part of the Labour Force Survey. The ONS also publishes regular data on inflation, while wage data are in the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings. Neither Cameron nor Miliband was really asking the statisticians at the ONS to do something new, just to do it more often or in more detail.揭露幼稚的一面需要挖掘更多统计数据,这需要分为三部分。第一点是,许多此类数据早已存在。英国国家统计局(ONS)在劳动力调查(Labour Force Survey)中问到有关福祉的问题。该局也定期发布通胀数据,而工资数据包含在工时和薪资年度调Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings)中。卡梅伦和米利班德并非真的要求国家统计局的统计学家拿出新花样,而只是希望统计的次数更频繁或者内容更加详细。The second point is that no mainstream politician has ever regarded GDP (or its cousin Gross National Product) as the only worthwhile policy objective, although we are often invited to draw that conclusion. Robert Kennedy’s famous complaint that GNP counts “napalmand “nuclear warheadsbut not “the health of our childrenor “the strength of our marriageswas wonderful rhetoric but surely nobody believes that if only the statisticians had collected different data, divorce would be prevented and the Vietnam war would never have happened.第二点是,从来没有主流政治人物将GDP(或者国民生产总GNP))作为唯一有价值的政策目标,尽管我们经常容易得出这一结论。罗伯特#8226;肯尼Robert Kennedy)曾经说,GNP计入了“凝固汽油弹”和“核弹头”,却没有包括“我们孩子的健康”或者“我们婚姻的力量”;他的这一著名抱怨虽言辞美妙,但谁能相信只要统计学家收集了不同的数据,离婚就可以被阻止,而越南战争就永远不会发生呢?An acerbic comment in Nature last year complained that, “Despite the destruction wrought by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012, both events boosted US GDP because they stimulated rebuilding.But this is only a problem if the Deepwater Horizon spill was in some way caused by the collection of GDP data.去年,《自然Nature)杂志上的一个尖刻抱怨道:“虽010年‘深水地平线Deepwater Horizon)石油泄漏012年飓风桑Hurricane Sandy)造成了巨大破坏,但这两个事件提振了美国GDP,因为它们刺激了重建工作。”但是,只有在“深水地平线”石油泄漏是GDP数据收集以某种方式所导致的情况下,这才是一个问题。If politicians truly sought to maximise GDP they would immediately abolish all planning restrictions, all barriers to immigration and a good chunk of the welfare state. These ideas are political suicide, which proves that GDP is not the sole objective of public policy it’s just a way to try to measure the size of the economy.如果政客们真的试图使GDP最大化,他们就会立即废除所有的市政规划限制、废除所有移民障碍以及福利国家制度的一大部分。这些构想等于政治自杀,这明了GDP不是公共政策的唯一目标,而只是一种衡量经济规模的方法。The deepest piece of naivety is the idea that in Ed Miliband’s words we can measure the one single “thing that matters most ONS data on median wages are a case in point. According to one measure, the median wage for people in full-time employment rose just 0.1 per cent in the past tax year well below the rate of inflation. According to another way of calculating exactly the same number, median wages rose by 4.1 per cent, well above the rate of inflation. (The median is the wage earned by someone slap in the middle of the sample.)最深层的幼稚是这样的想法:(用米利班德的话说)我们可以衡量一件“最重要的东西”。国家统计局关于中位数工资的数据是一个很好的例子。根据一项衡量指标,全职就业人士的中位数工资在上一个纳税年度仅上涨0.1%,远低于通胀率。而以完全相同数字为依据的另一种计算方法显示,中位数工资增长了4.1%,远高于通胀率中位数工资是指样本里处于中间位置者的收入)。How can that be? The lower measure is the median for the entire sample. The higher measure looks at the median wage of people who’ve been in the same job for the entire year the vast majority. The two numbers would differ if for example some high-income people retired and some low-income people joined the labour force (school-leavers? immigrants?). It’s possible for most people to enjoy a decent pay rise while median wages stagnate, and that may be what is happening now. One rather narrow question “how are things going for people in full-time employment in the middle of the income distribution?turns out to have two very different answers. Each one is perfectly justifiable.怎么会这样呢?较低的测量结果是整个样本的中位数。较高的测量结果针对全年都做同一份工作的人(绝大多数人)的中位数工资。例如,如果一些高收入者退休了,而一些低收入者加入了劳动力大军(中学毕业生?移民?),这两个数字就会有所不同。大多数人享受体面的加薪而中位数工资保持不变的情况是可能发生的,而这可能是现在正在发生的。换句话说,一个相当狭义的问题——“处于收入分配中间位置的全职工作者的境遇如何?”——结果有两个非常不同的,而每一个都有无懈可击的依据。We haven’t even got into questions of part-timers, the self-employed, the poorest, the richest, pensioners or benefit recipients. The idea that we can somehow measure “the thing that matters mostis quite absurd.我们甚至还没有涉及关于兼职者、自由职业者、最贫困人口、最富有的人、养老金领取者或福利领取者的问题。那种认为我们能够以某种方式衡量“最重要的东西”的想法是很荒谬的。It’s the duty of our official statisticians to provide a range of timely and objective statistics that will lead to better decisions. That is why so many different types of data must be gathered, analysed and published. It is a hard job, which is why the ONS has better things to do than help our schoolboy politicians score points off each other.官方统计学家有责任提供一系列及时客观的统计数据,帮助制定出更好的决策。这就是为什么必须收集、分析并发布如此多不同类型的数据。这是一项艰苦的工作,也是为什么比起帮助幼稚的政客彼此压倒对方,英国国家统计局还有更重要的事情要做。Tim Harford’s latest book, ‘The Undercover Economist Strikes Back is now available in paperback. Twitter: @TimHarford本文作者蒂#8226;哈福Tim Harford)的新书《卧底经济学家反击战The Undercover Economist Strikes Back)的平装本现已上市。Twitter:@TimHarford /201503/362665

The ed Nations refugee agency says the world needs to better focus on responding to the hundreds of thousands of people making ;risky; sea journeys in search of asylum or migration.联合国难民署说,国际社会必须更有效地解决数十万人为寻求庇护或移民而冒险渡海的问题。UNHCR chief Antonio Guterres is hosting a conference Wednesday and Thursday in Geneva to discuss rescues at sea, ways to encourage safer forms of migration and addressing the underlying causes of why people are fleeing their countries to begin with.联合国难民署高级专员古特雷斯星期三和星期四在日内瓦主持一次会议,讨论海上救助问题以及如何鼓励采取较安全的移民途径,并设法解决导致人们逃离家园的根本原因。The agency says at least 348,000 people have tried to make sea crossings so far this year, a likely record, with 4,272 reported deaths.联合国难民署说,今年至少4千人试图渡海,据报很可能272人死亡。The most dangerous routes have been across the Mediterranean Sea where more than 3,400 people have died in 2014. The area has seen a surge of activity with 207,000 people trying to make the trip, which the U.N. says is more than triple the previous high from 2011.最危险的路线是地中海,2014年有3400多人死在途中。地中海上的难民人数不断增多,今0千人曾冒险渡海。联合国说,这个数目011年增加了两倍以上。来 /201412/350385


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