时间:2019年10月19日 11:28:42

For years, currency concerns were at the top of the agenda for US economic policymakers visiting Beijing. But as the Obama administration’s economic team prepares for its final “strategic and economic dialoguewith Chinese counterparts next week, there are signs the renminbi has been usurped by a new worry.多年来,对汇率的关切曾是美国经济政策制定者访华时的首要议程。但在奥巴马政府经济团队筹划下周的美中“战略与经济对话”(本次对话将是奥巴马政府参与的最后一场)之际,有迹象表明,人民币问题被新的担忧取代了。US officials have been expressing anxiety over Chinese industrial overcapacity and runaway production by the largely state-owned steel sector and other heavy industry that Beijing has pledged to rein in.美国官员一直对中国工业产能过剩以及钢铁业和其他重工业刹不住车的产量表示忧虑——中国政府已承诺要控制住这些国企主导行业的产量。Previewing the discussions, Nathan Sheets, the US Treasury’s undersecretary for international affairs, recently called for China to allow its industrial sectors “to better reflect capacity and global demand conditions最近,在华盛顿布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)举办的一场为下周的美中对话提供导览的“预览会”上,美国财政部负责国际事务的副部长纳森#8226;希茨(Nathan Sheets)呼吁中国让其工业领域“更好地反映产能以及全球需求状况”。“This issue is an important one for the global economy and for the US economy and we hope to make some progress on it in#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;Beijing,he told an audience at the Brookings Institution in Washington.他在会上称:“对于全球经济以及美国经济而言,这个问题很重要,我们希望在北京……在这个问题上取得一些进展。”Chronic overcapacity in China’s steel sector has been blamed for a surge in cheap exports that have led to steel mill closures on both sides of the Atlantic.外界一直认为,中国钢铁行业的长期产能过剩,是导致国际市场上廉价出口钢产品大幅增加的原因。廉价进口钢产品已导致很多欧美钢铁厂破产。In response, the EU has come under pressure not to grant China “market economy status which would make it more difficult to prosecute Chinese companies for alleged dumping. In Washington, meanwhile, the Obama administration has paved the way for a ban on Chinese steel imports as a retaliatory measure for suspected cyber espionage against US Steel of Pittsburgh.作为回应,欧EU)一直面临压力,不要赋予中国“市场经济地位”——如果赋予市场经济地位,以涉嫌倾销为由起诉中国企业的难度会加大。与此同时,在华盛顿,奥巴马政府已为禁止进口中国钢产品铺平道路,这是对中国企业涉嫌对位于匹兹堡的美国钢铁公司(US Steel)发动网络间谍活动的报复。Zhu Guangyao, China’s vice-finance minister, said at a briefing in Beijing on Thursday: “Trade disputes between China and the US should be addressed in accordance with World Trade Organisation principles. We are opposed to abusive trade remedy measures.”中国财政部副部长朱光耀周四在北京的一次会议上表示:“要根据WTO的原则来解决我们之间的贸易争端……反对滥用贸易救济措斀?”Mr Sheets sounded sanguine about Beijing’s management of what the People’s Bank of China bills as a shift towards a greater market role in determining the value of the renminbi, something the US and others have been advocating for years.中国央行(PBoC)称,要在确定人民币汇率方面转向让市场发挥更大作用(多年来美国和其他国家一直主张中国这样做)。在这方面,希茨对中国政府的掌控能力感到乐观。China’s authorities have the resources to achieve this goal, he said. “And frankly that’s something we’ve seen over the past six months or so in terms of their management of the exchange rate.”他表示,中国政府有能力实现这个目标。“坦率地讲,过去6个月左右,我们观察中国在管理人民币汇率方面的作为时所看到的情况就是如此。”Concerns remain the Treasury in April put China on a new currency manipulation watchlist but senior current and former US officials see China’s “broad trajectoryon currency as positive. That is a far cry from the angst last summer when Beijing unveiled a policy that caused chaos in global financial markets.关切依然存在——今月,美国财政部在新的汇率操纵国观察名单中将中国列入其中。但美国现任及前任高官都认为,中国在汇率上的“总体轨迹”是积极的。这与去年夏季的焦虑相去甚远,当时中国政府发布了一项政策,结果引发全球金融市场动荡。At last year’s strategic and economic dialogue, held in Washington, the two sides pledged to “maintain candid communication on strategic economic issues Six months later, with China’s equity and currency markets in turmoil, the channels went dark. “Chinese officials just took their phones off the hook that week,said one person involved in the dialogue.在去年于华盛顿举行的战略和经济对话中,双方承诺“就战略性经济问题保持坦诚沟通”个月后,随着中国的股市和汇市陷入动荡,对话渠道中断了。一位参与对话的人士表示:“那一周,中方官员干脆拔掉了他们的电话线。”When communication resumed, Chinese officials assured their US counterparts they remained committed to structural economic reforms and would refrain from competitive currency devaluations. US officials seem prepared to take them at their word.当沟通恢复的时候,中方官员向美方保,他们依然致力于结构性经济改革,不会搞竞争性货币贬值。美国官员似乎愿意相信他们。David Dollar, until 2013 the US Treasury’s top representative in China, said the once totemic issue of China’s currency has “moved back in the line of issues between the US and China-13年曾担任美国财政部驻华经济与金融特使的杜大伟(David Dollar)表示,人民币这个一度具有象征意义的问题,“如今变成了美中之间一个不那么重要的问题”。The shift has been driven in large part by the meaningful appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar and other major currencies over the past decade to a point where the International Monetary Fund and others have argued it is fairly valued.这种转变在很大程度上是过去十年人民币兑美元和其他主要货币汇率大幅升值推动的——人民币已经升值至国际货币基金组织(IMF)和其他机构认为的合理水平。The US also recognises that pressure on the renminbi is driven by capital flight, and concerns over China’s economy and the currency’s value being pushed down.美国也承认,人民币承受的压力受到资本外流、对中国经济的担忧以及人民币价值被压低的推动。This comes as there are growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve may decide to raise interest rates again soon, prompting a further strengthening of the US currency. “This is not the moment when you would [push China to] just stop intervening completely and just introduce a free exchange rate,Mr Dollar said.目前人们日益预期,美联储(Fed)可能很快再次决定加息,推动美元进一步走强。杜大伟表示:“现在不是你(推动中国)完全停止干预并推出自由汇率的好时机。”China’s central bank has been selling down its foreign exchange reserves to cushion the Chinese currency’s recent declines. It is a contentious use of the country’s reserves, which have fallen by almost 0bn since peaking at tn.中国央行一直在抛售外汇储备来缓冲人民币最近的下跌。中国这种使用外汇储备的方式引起了争议——中国外储自达到4万亿美元的峰值以来下降了000亿美元。“The Chinese government worries too much about US reaction,said Yu Yongding at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a former PBoC adviser. “[Intervention] is a waste of foreign exchange reserves. We should use them to buy [assets], not prop up the exchange rate.”中国社会科学院经济学家、前央行顾问余永定表示:“中国政府过于担心美国的反应了。(干预)是对外汇储备的浪费。我们应该使用外储来购买(资产),而不是用来撑汇率。”Eswar Prasad, a former IMF China mission chief and the author of a forthcoming book on the renminbi, said the US Treasury was clearly eager to speak about other issues next week.IMF中国部前负责人埃斯瓦#8226;普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示,美国财政部显然渴望在下周谈论人民币以外的其他问题。普拉萨德有一本关于人民币的新作即将出版。That did not mean, however, that US and Chinese policymakers would be able to avoid “ritualisticdiscussions on currency. “Like a sore tooth we all wish [the issue] would go away but it is likely to refuse to,he said.然而,这并不意味着美国和中国政策制定者将能够避免“例行公事地”讨论汇率。他说,“(这个问题)就像一颗发炎的牙齿,我们都希望炎症会消退,但它可能会顽固不消。”来 /201606/447996

Salah Abdeslam, the prime surviving suspect for the Paris terrorist attacks was shot in the leg and captured during a police raid in Brussels, Belgium, on last Friday, ending an intensive four-month manhunt.经过长达4个月的大规模搜捕,上周五,在比利时布鲁塞尔警方的一次行动中,巴黎恐怖袭击主要幸存嫌疑人萨拉赫·阿卜杜萨拉姆被击中腿,继而被捕。He and four other suspects were detained in a raid in Molenbeek, including three members of a family who allegedly sheltered him.他和其他四名犯罪嫌疑人,包括涉嫌藏匿他的一家三口,在莫伦贝克区遭到了突然袭击。French President Francois Hollande said Paris prosecutors will urgently request the extradition of Abdeslam.法国总统奥朗德称,巴黎检方将马上请求从比利时引渡阿卜杜勒-萨拉姆。The gun and bomb attacks on the stadium, bars and a concert hall in Paris on Nov 13 last year killed 130 people and marked the deadliest militant assault in Europe since 2004.去年113日发生在巴黎体育场、酒吧和音乐厅的一系列击和爆炸袭击导致了130人死亡,004年以来发生在欧洲的最血腥武装袭击。Abdeslams lawyer Sven Mary told reporters his client was ;cooperating with Belgian justice;, adding that Abdeslam admitted being in Paris on November 13.阿卜杜勒-萨拉姆的律师斯温·马立告诉记者,他的客户正在配合比利时警方的工作。他还补充道,阿卜杜萨拉姆已经承认在113日现身巴黎,Mary added that the 26-year-old French national, who was born and raised in Brussels in a Moroccan immigrant family, would refuse the extradition demanded by French President Francois Hollande.马立律师还表示,这位26岁的法国公民出生、成长在布鲁塞尔的一个洛哥移民家庭。他可能会拒绝法国总统弗朗科伊斯·霍兰德的引渡要求。Legal experts said his challenge was unlikely to succeed, but it would buy him more time to prepare his eventual defence.法律专家表示,阿卜杜萨拉姆的要求是不可能成功的,但这将会给他赢得更多时间来准备他的最终防线。来 /201603/433128

As the UK slashes and stumbles through the thickets towards Brexit, a familiar shadow has fallen. Scotland, its prickly, unreconciled northern nation, is moving towards another independence referendum four years after the first.就在英国披荆斩棘、跌跌撞撞地向着退欧前进之际,一个熟悉的阴影已经笼罩下来。时年,苏格兰——联合王国中桀骜不驯的北方王国——正走向第二次独立公投。The motive force is June’s vote to quit the EU: 53 per cent in England backed leaving yet 62 per cent of Scots opted to remain. The sense that an unpleasant spasm of English nationalism is forcing Scotland out of the EU has provided the separatist government with an opportunity to demand a re-run of the 2014 referendum.原动力是6月的英国退欧公投:53%的英格兰人持退欧,2%的苏格兰人选择留欧。英格兰令人讨厌的民族主义发作将迫使苏格兰退出欧盟,这种感觉为独立派政府提供了要求举行第二次独立公投的机会。Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has said that late 2018 would be the obvious time to hold a second vote. She is expected to set out further details at the Scottish National party’s conference this week.苏格兰首席大臣尼古拉?斯特Nicola Sturgeon)表示018年末将是举行第二次公投显而易见的时间(编者注:尼古拉?斯特金周一正式要求举行第二次苏格兰独立公投)。预计她将在本周苏格兰民族党(Scottish National party)大会上详述进一步的细节。Three years ago, the result was closer than many expected, with the pro-UK side winning 55 per cent to 45 per cent. Support for separation rose during that campaign. The nationalists have since swept their opponents aside, taking all but three of Scotland’s Westminster seats and securing a third successive governing term at the devolved administration in Edinburgh. The psephological leap the separatists have to make in a second vote is much less daunting.3年前那场公投的结果比很多人预想的更悬5%的人持留在英国5%的人反对,前者以微弱差距赢得了公投。在公投前的造势过程中,独立运动得到了更多持。自那之后,苏格兰民族党把对手推上冷板凳,苏格兰在英国下议院的席位除3个以外其他全部由苏格兰民族党占据,同时该党取得执掌苏格兰政府的连续第三个任期。独立派要在第二次公投中消除的持率差距,远没那么悬殊了。Unionists have a further problem: who has the credibility and unifying power to front another “Better Togethercampaign? The leaders of the pro-UK movement back in 2014, eminent Westminster Scots such as Alistair Darling, former chancellor, are retired from frontline politics, retain little influence and it feels as if they belong to another age.统一派还面临一个问题:谁拥有足够的威信和凝聚力来领导又一场“在一起更好Better Together)运动?在2014年领导留英运动的那些在英国国会任职的杰出苏格兰人,如英国前财政大臣阿利斯泰尔?达林(Alistair Darling),现在都已退出政治前线,影响力所剩无几,给人感觉仿佛属于另一个时代。The Labour party, which dominated Scottish politics for generations, is in a state of collapse. It has been replaced by the SNP as the left-of-centre option for many voters, and at the last devolved election slipped into third place behind the much-ridiculed Scottish Conservatives. Jeremy Corbyn, the UK Labour leader, is as unpopular north of the border as is he is everywhere else, and would hardly add stardust to the case for the union.曾在数代人时间里主导苏格兰政治的工党(Labour party),如今正处于分崩离析的状态。苏格兰民族党已经取代工党成为了很多中左翼选民的选择。在上一次苏格兰议会选举中,工党滑至第三位,位于饱受嘲笑的苏格兰保守Conservative)之后。英国工党领袖杰里米?科尔Jeremy Corbyn)在苏格兰像在其他任何地方一样不受欢迎,对统一派说选民几乎起不到丝毫帮助。Nor do the Tories offer much hope. In personality and behaviour, Prime Minister Theresa May is seen, perhaps like her predecessor Margaret Thatcher, as an unsympathetic type by many Scots. Like Mr Corbyn, she could damage more than bolster the campaign. Ruth Davidson, the leader of Scotland’s Conservatives, is popular and energetic but her party does not yet have heft.保守党也没有带来多大希望。在很多苏格兰人看来,特里萨?Theresa May)的性格和举止显示,她或许像前一位女首相玛格丽特?撒切Margaret Thatcher)一样,是不近人情的那类人。像科尔宾一样,她对统一运动的破坏可能大于帮助。苏格兰保守党领袖露戴维Ruth Davidson)有人气也有活力,但她的政党目前还没有分量。Given Labour seems determined not to pair up with the Tories as it did during the previous referendum campaign an association it blames for its electoral decline since there could be a number of competing unionist campaigns battling for prominence, slinging mud and undermining the greater cause.考虑到工党似乎决心不像上一次公投运动那样与保守党结盟(工党认为正是那次联盟导致其之后在选举中节节败退),可能会有很多相互竞争的统一派造势活动争夺地位、互相诋毁、破坏整个统一事业。If the separatists are to be defeated again, it is likely to be down to the facts. The oil price, central to nationalist boasts about the prospective wealth of an independent Scotland, has plummeted. In 2014, the Scottish government predicted North Sea revenues of between .8bn and .5bn in 2016/17. In reality, UK oil and gas generated receipts of effectively zero and are forecast to remain around that level.如果独立派会再一次被打败,原因很可能在于现实情况。石油是苏格兰民族主义者所鼓吹的英格兰独立后财富前景的核心,而目前油价暴跌014年,苏格兰政府预计,2016/17年度北海收入8亿英镑至75亿英镑之间。事实上,英国石油天然气创造的财政收入实际上为零,预计未来仍将大致维持这一水平。Further, the Scottish government’s figures show the public spending deficit has reached almost 5bn: 9.5 per cent of gross domestic product, compared with 4 per cent for the UK. The SNP has failed to produce a credible plan for closing this gap. Nor it is yet clear what currency an independent Scotland would adopt, or whether it would be able to remain in the EU or easily reapply for membership.另外,苏格兰政府的数据表明,公共出赤字达到了近150亿英镑,相当于国内生产总GDP).5%,相比之下英国整体的这一比例%。苏格兰民族党没能拿出缩小这一差距的可信计划。同样尚不清楚的是,苏格兰独立后要采用哪种货币,独立后的苏格兰是否可以留在欧盟内或轻松重新申请加入欧盟。In these unpredictable times, no one can be sure of the result if Scots go to the polls again. Despite the weight of economic evidence against her, the “take back controlmessage that delivered Brexit may work just as well for Ms Sturgeon. The UK may yet not see out the decade.在这种变化莫测的时候,如果苏格兰再次举行公投,没人能断定结果。尽管不利于斯特金的经济据是实实在在的,但实现了退欧的“拿回控制权Take Back Control)口号可能同样能够帮助斯特金得偿所愿。联合王国可能撑不过这个十年了。The writer is a political commentator本文作者为政治员来 /201703/498493

Donald Trump has tweeted that Toyota will face hefty tariffs on cars built in Mexico for the US market if it builds Corollas factory south of the border.唐纳德·特朗普于日前发表推特称,如果丰田公司在南部边境建造卡罗拉汽车工厂,那么其在墨西哥为美国市场生产的汽车将会面临高额关税。The president-elect said the Japanese company would be hit with a ;big border tax; if the plan went ahead.这位当选总统表示,如果该真的实施,那么这家日本公司将会遭到巨额关税的打击。Toyotas President Akio Toyoda said the company had no immediate plans to curb production in Mexico.丰田汽车社长丰田章男表示,对于限制在墨西哥生产一事,该公司还没有即时的计划;We will consider our option as we see what policies the incoming president adopts,; said Mr Toyoda, speaking in Japan.丰田章男在日本表示:“我们将在美国新一任总统颁布相关政策之后再做出选择。”The companys US arm issued a statement saying production and employment levels at Toyota in the US would not decrease as a result of the new plant in Mexico.丰田公司美国分公司发表声明称,其在墨西哥建设新工厂不会减少公司在美国的生产量和雇佣人数;Toyota looks forward to collaborating with the Trump Administration to serve in the best interests of consumers and the automotive industry,; the statement said.声明中说道:“丰田公司愿意与特朗普政府合作,为了消费者和汽车行业的利益而务。”Toyota announced in April 2015 it would build a bn Corolla factory in central Mexico. Construction began in November 2016.丰田015月宣布,将在墨西哥中部建设一座价0亿美元的卡罗拉汽车工厂。该工程已于20161月开始。来 /201701/489475

In Nigeria, there is a hashtag doing the rounds: #BringBack-Corruption. A tongue-in-cheek repudiation of the anti-corruption drive being spearheaded by President Muhammadu Buhari, the campaign nevertheless reflects real anger at rising hardship. 在尼日利亚,有一个正在迅速流传的话题标签还我腐败#(#BringBack-Corruption)。这是对尼日利亚总统穆罕默杜#8226;布哈Muhammadu Buhari)发起的反腐行动的戏谑的批评,尽管如此,这一批评的确反映出他们对尼日利亚日益加剧的困境的真切愤怒Never mind that the main culprit of Nigeria’s woes is the price of oil: at a barrel, a big comedown for a mono-commodity state whose cronies, schemers and skimmers have grown accustomed to the 0-a-barrel lifestyle. Not a few Nigerians, even those too poor and too removed from power to leech off the petro-economy, are blaming Mr Buhari’s war on graft for their misfortune. 没有人在意的是,造成尼日利亚困境的罪魁祸首其实是油价:现在的油价是每0美元,这让这个依赖单一大宗商品的国家非常落魄(这个国家的当权者的亲信、阴谋家和揩油者已经习惯了油价处于每桶100美元时的生活方式)。相当多的尼日利亚人,甚至是那些极度贫困、极度无权无势以至于无法从石油经济中捞油水的人,都指责布哈里的反腐斗争导致了他们的困境“With corruption a bag of pure water was N80. Without corruption a bag of pure water is N150 #BringBack-Corruption goes a typical refrain. Another highlights one company’s efforts to wring more profit from a shrivelling market. “Titus Sardine started with 4 fishes, it reduced to 3. Now it’s 2. In years to come, you’ll open Sardine and see ‘Try Again, No fish this time#BringBackCorruption.“有腐败的时候一袋纯净水要80奈拉。没有腐败的时候一袋纯净水要150奈拉#还我腐败#”,这是一条具有代表性的抱怨。另一条抱怨表明一家公司从萎缩的市场中挤出多一点利润的尝试。“Titus牌沙丁鱼罐头最开始一罐里头有4条鱼,然后减少到条。现在有2条。未来几年,你打开沙丁鱼罐头以后会看到‘再试一次,这次没有鱼#还我腐败#”Mr Buhari has indeed made the pursuit of corruption, along with the fight against Boko Haram terrorists, his biggest priority, though the link with rising prices or diminishing fish portions is not entirely obvious. Despite there being little if any direct correlation, many say that a whole system once lubricated by under-the-table money has simply seized up. 布哈里的确将打击腐败和科哈拉姆(Boko Haram)恐怖分子放在了首位——尽管这和物价上升或者鱼肉份量减少之间的联系并不明显。直接联系即使有的话,也很微弱,但许多人说,整个曾经靠台面下资金的润滑得以运转的体制如今已经停止运作Mr Buhari, a retired general, ran the country in the early 1980s after seizing power the old-fashioned way in a military coup. He also railed against the endemic corruption that made Nigeria notorious, even in Africa. Whatever traction he gained during two years of military rule was quickly lost. Levels of state theft reached vertiginous heights under subsequent leaders. 退役将军布哈里曾在上世0年代初治理过这个国家,当时他是通过一种老派的方式——军事政变上台的。那一次他也曾怒斥尼日利亚猖獗的腐败,该国的腐败即便在非洲也是臭名昭著的。布哈里在那为期两年的军事统治中取得的任何成果后来很快都消失了。在后来数任领导人的统治下,盗窃国家财产的猖獗程度达到令人发指的水平Now, after his surprise win in last year’s election, Mr Buhari is having another go. Under his direction, state prosecutors have gone after several high-ranking members of the previous administration of Goodluck Jonathan, though the former president, who had the grace to quit office when electors booted him out, is assumed to be safe from prosecution. 去年意外在选举中获胜的布哈里正在进行又一次尝试。在他的指令下,尼日利亚检方已经起诉了前总统古德勒克#8226;乔纳Goodluck Jonathan)领导的上一届政府中的多名高官,尽管乔纳森本人应该会被免于起诉(他在被选民投下台时爽快地让出了位置)Results have been mixed. The trial of Sambo Dasuki, a former national security adviser, has run into trouble over alleged procedural irregularities, blamed by some on Mr Buhari’s military instincts and his impatience with the niceties of the law. Mr Dasuki is accused of helping to “divertabout .1bn meant to have been deployed in fighting Boko Haram. 结果好坏参半。对前国家安全顾问桑#8226;达苏Sambo Dasuki)的审判因为涉嫌程序失当而遇到了麻烦,一些人将其归咎于布哈里的军人本能和他对法律细节的不耐烦。达苏基被指控帮助他人“挪用”本应用于打击科哈拉姆分子的约21亿美元的拨款Recent attacks on power stations and oil and gas pipelines have been blamed on saboteurs angered by Mr Buhari’s crackdown on nefarious activities. As lights flicker off and private generators cough into action, some Nigerians have taken to muttering: “When you fight corruption, corruption fights back.最近针对发电厂和油气管道的袭击,被认为是布哈里打击犯罪活动激起的蓄意破坏。一盏盏灯忽闪着熄灭,私人发电机轰隆隆地运转起来,一些尼日利亚人禁不住嘟囔:“你打击腐败,腐败也在还击。Champagne importers and car dealers, too, are complaining that officials are not spending like they used to. “There’s not enough money flowing around because everything was being financed by corruption,says Mohammed Garuba, head of asset management at CardinalStone, a Lagos-based financial institution. 香槟进口商和汽车经销商也抱怨官员们出手不如过去阔绰了。“流转的资金不足,因为一切都是靠腐败来提供资金的,”位于拉各斯(Lagos)的金融机构CardinalStone的资产管理主管穆罕默#8226;加鲁Mohammed Garuba)说Mr Buhari’s drive is laudable. It is, however, unlikely to work. He is right to end the culture of impunity by going after big offenders. But unless he can tackle the underlying causes of corruption, the victims of his campaign will be seen as arbitrary and his victories fleeting. 布哈里的反腐行动值得赞誉,然而却不太可能奏效。他为了终结犯罪者不受惩处的氛围去追究重大犯罪者的责任,这样做是正确的。但除非他能够解决腐败的病根,否则人们就会认为他的反腐行动是想针对谁就针对谁,他的胜利也将是昙花一现So what are the causes? Central are the opportunities presented to a parasitic coterie of middlemen, gatekeepers, rationers, arbitrageurs, licensers and fixers. They trade in scarcity, much of it of their own devising. They can get you anything, from business permits to oil blocks if the price is right. In such a rentier system, the disincentives to actually make anything are huge. Mr Buhari has complained with only mild exaggeration that Nigeria cannot even produce toothpicks. 那么病根有哪些呢?核心问题是,由中间人、看门人、配给者、套利者、许可发放者和代人疏通者组成的寄生阶层有空子可钻。他们把“稀缺性”当生意来做,这种稀缺性大部分又是他们自己设计出来的。他们能为你搞到任何东西,从经营许可到石油区块——只要你出合适的价钱。在这样一个食利者体制中,做任何实业的障碍都是巨大的。布哈里曾经抱怨尼日利亚连牙签都造不出来——这话并不算十分夸张To tackle the root cause of corruption, Nigeria needs to purge rent-seeking opportunities. Nowhere are these more evident than in the oil industry. Nigeria is the largest petroleum producer in Africa. Its output of 2m barrels a day is controlled by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, a many-tentacled entity which and you can almost see the flashing red warning sign both regulates and participates in the oil business. The NNPC dabbles in exploration, distribution and refining, though the latter mostly consists of exporting raw crude and importing refined products at scandalous prices. 要解决腐败的病根,尼日利亚需要清除寻租的机会。这一点在石油行业再明显不过。尼日利亚是非洲最大的石油生产囀?该00万桶原油的日产量控制在尼日利亚国家石油公NNPC)的手中。该公司业务范围很广。它既是石油行业的监管者,也是石油行业的参与者(你几乎都能看见红色的警示灯在闪烁)。尼日利亚国家石油公司涉足开采、分销和精炼,尽管所谓的“精炼”基本就是出口原油,然后以令人发指的价格进口精炼石油产品The NNPC is a case study in how to sacrifice national interest to personal gain. The auditor-general recently found that it had failed to remit bn to the Treasury in 2014 alone. Amazingly, in oil-abundant Nigeria, most people have no electricity. One does not have to be a market fundamentalist to conclude that the NNPC needs shrinking to as small a size as possible, where zero is the optimal number. 尼日利亚国家石油公司堪称如何牺牲国家利益中饱私囊的典型案例。尼总审计长最近发现,014年一年,该公司没有上交给财政部的资金就达60亿美元。惊人的是,在石油资源丰富的尼日利亚,大多人还用不上电。一个人不必是市场原教旨主义者就能得出结论,尼日利亚国家石油公司应该尽可能削减规模,最好是彻底消失Few doubt Mr Buhari’s sincerity in taking on corruption. Yet punishing individual wrongdoers will not be enough. Unless he can devise coherent strategies to squeeze graft from the system, it will return with a vengeance once he has gone. Then the advocates of #BringBackCorruption will have got their way. It will, though, be a cause for anything but celebration. 很少有人质疑布哈里打击腐败的诚意。然而,惩罚单个的违法分子是不够的。除非他能够设计出连贯的策略将腐败从体制中彻底铲除,否则一旦他离开,腐败就会以变本加厉之势卷土重来。那时候还我腐败#的人就如愿了。然而,这唯独不值得庆祝。来 /201604/439688

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