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RoboCup机器人世界杯Humans 1, Machines 7人机对战1:7When will robots do to football what computers did to chess?当机器人踢足球能和电脑下象棋一样好的时候MESSI v the Machine was how some commentators touted the World Cup final, inspired by the disciplined way the German team dismantled Brazil in the semi-finals. But despite such caricatures of Teutonic precision, German players are only human. So as the latest edition of RoboCup, a competition for robot soccer players rather than flesh-and-blood ones, kicks off on July 19th in Jo?o Pessoa, Brazils easternmost city, a question that will be on many minds is: when will real machines conquer the sport?世界杯半决赛中,德国干掉了巴西。受这种一板一眼的踢法的刺激,一些人员戏称世界杯决赛为“梅西对战机器”。但是尽管我们这样讽刺条顿式精密,德国队员也仍是人类。而机器人世界杯则是机器足球运动员的赛事,无关有血有肉的人类。因此,今年7月19日,当机器人世界杯在巴西最东端的城市圣保罗开赛的时候,许多人开始考虑:真的机器,什么时候会统治足球运动?When the first RoboCup was held, in 1997, those who launched it set a target of 2050 for engineers to produce a humanoid robot team that would rival the champions of the older competition. Judged by the plodding clumsiness of some of the RoboCup players, that goal might seem far-fetched. But it is easy to underestimate how quickly robotics is improving. Self-driving cars and delivery drones, which seemed hopelessly futuristic just a decade ago, are now topics of serious business interest.1997年,第一届机器人世界杯举行的时候,创始者们设定的目标是2050年,工程师能开发出类人的机器队伍,媲美旧有比赛的冠军。通过一些机器人世界杯队员的沉重步伐来看, 这个目标还遥遥无期。但是人们往往会低估机器人发展的速度。无人驾驶汽车和无人运输机十年前看上去也是遥不可及的,如今已成为严肃的商业兴趣点。By comparison with the corporate investments of the likes of Google in electric cars, the teams competing in this years RoboCup—more than 150 of them—have shoestring budgets. But the tournament includes features that the organisers hope will accelerate innovation without the incentive of cash.对比谷歌因对电动汽车的偏好而进行的合作投资,今年机器人世界杯的150多队伍的预算不过是毛毛雨。但是比赛有这样一个特点,组织方希望在没有资本刺激的情况下加速创新。One is a clever combination of competition and co-operation. Leading up to the playoffs, teams prepare new strategies and fine-tune their hardware and software in secret. Immediately after the finals have been played, however, all must publish their methods, thus raising the bar for everyone the following year. Another feature is that there are limits to how far teams can push their hardware, to encourage them to develop smart routes to victory, rather than using mere brute force.这项赛事是对竞争和合作的良好结合。进入了季后赛,各队都会秘密准备新战术,调整软硬件。然而,决赛一旦结束,所有人都要公开他们的方法,由此给其他人在明年的比赛提供参照。另一项特质是对于队伍对硬件做的改进是有上限的,以鼓励他们开发智能方案赢得胜利,而不是仅仅通过粗鲁的物理性能。A further twist is that RoboCup is not one competition but many. These range from a little league of miniature cylinders on wheels, like the “Star Wars” character R2-D2, in which each entire team is controlled by one computer using input from overhead cameras, to a fully limbed humanoid league, akin to R2-D2s faithful companion, C-3PO (see picture above). In the humanoid league, which is further divided into three sizes of robot—kid, teen and adult—each android has its own independent on-board sensors and artificial-intelligence software.更深一步的是,机器人世界杯不是一项比赛,而是一系列比赛。其范围包括微型有轮缸式的小联赛,到完全类人化的队伍。前者类似“星球大战”中的R2D2,整个队伍由一台电脑控制,输入端为上空的摄像头。后者好比R2D2的忠实队友C3PO(见上图)。在类人队伍中,根据其不同的尺寸又分为小孩,青少年和成人,每个机器人都有其独立的自带传感器,以及拟人智能软件。Moreover, for those who cannot be bothered to get out the spanners and the soldering iron, there is a virtual league as well. Competition there can focus on improving the software needed for the rapid planning of the best move at each step of the game, without having to worry about the vagaries of the hardware. And there is also a junior league for school-aged geeks, some of whom will no doubt join the RoboCup major leagues when they go to college, their skills aly finely honed.更有甚者,对于那些不善于使用扳手和焊接工具的人,也有虚拟队伍。此处的比赛主要专注于能在比赛中快速规划出最佳行动的软件,而不在意硬件的搭配。还有校园极客的初级队伍,他们在进入大学后无疑会加入机器人世界杯,毕竟他们的技巧已经经过考验。To sense the state-of-the-art in robot football, you need to go behind the scenes. Last week, hidden in a windowless office, Joydeep Biswas of Carnegie Mellon University and his colleagues were making final adjustments to their team, which competes in the little league. While robots in the humanoid league are still lumbering and prone to error, the speed and accuracy of those in the little league are stunning. Their electromechanical kickers can fire the leagues orange golf balls at eight metres per second. In fact, they could easily shoot harder if it were not for hardware-control regulations that set a maximum speed.为了体验机器人足球的先进性,你要走近荧幕背后。上周,躲在一件无窗办公室中,卡内基·梅隆大学的Joydeep Biswas和他的伙伴对队伍进行最后的调整。他们将在小联赛中出现。尽管类人组机器人依然胡拼乱造而且容易出故障,其在小联赛中的速度和精确性都有大幅提高。他们的电力学球员能够以每秒八米的速度将比赛用橙色高尔夫球踢出去。实际上,如果不是硬件控制限制了最大速度的话,他们能够踢得更狠。The state of play踢球的状态Mr Biswas, a graduate student, works for Manuela Veloso. She helped found RoboCup and her group has won the most finals titles in the little league. In Dr Veloso and her colleagues decided to share with their competitors the vision software that had let their team win a streak of RoboCups. This helped establish the now-mandatory open-source approach that has rapidly raised the quality of the competition.研究生Biswas先生为Manuela Veloso工作。她帮助成立了机器人世界杯,而她的团队已经赢得了小联赛中的多数头衔。年Veloso士及她的团队决定同他们的竞争对手分享帮助他们赢得了一系列机器人世界杯的视觉软件。这引导建立了如今的强制开源规则,并快速提升了比赛的质量。“In the past couple of years,” Dr Veloso opines, “one of the big changes is that we are starting to analyse real football tactics and strategy, to devise our own.” A paper her group published earlier this year lays out how their CMDragons team observed and exploited the defence tactics of opponents, luring them away from positions where they could prevent goals. This approach, dubbed “coerce and attack”, has parallels in professional playbooks.Veloso士说,“在过去的几年,一项巨大的改变是我们开始分析实际足球技巧和策略,并衍生出我们自己的。”今年早些时候,她的团队发表的一篇文章,说明了他们这个CMDragons团队如何观测并利用选手的防守战略,引诱他们远离能阻止球的防守位置。这个方法被叫做“威逼后攻击”,已经出现在专业玩家手册中。Other research groups are getting equally sophisticated, and teams from Australia, China, Iran and Thailand, among other countries, are regularly placed high in several leagues of the competition—in contrast to their national reputations on real pitches. In the early years of RoboCup, there were huge differences in quality between the teams. No longer. The best of the little league routinely finish their ten-minute-long games with the low scores characteristic of well-matched human teams. Indeed, Dr Velosos squad came in second last year, after a penalty shoot-out following a 2-2 game.其他的研究团队也变得同样的厉害。在所有国家中,来自澳大利亚,中国,伊朗和泰国的队伍,同该国在实际比赛中的名声相比,处在比赛的领头羊地位。在机器人世界杯早些时候,各队在质量上大有不同。这一幕已成为历史。小联赛的佼佼者一般在10分钟的比赛中以小比分结束,同人类队伍间的比赛相仿。实际上,去年一场2-2的比赛结束后,Veloso的小队在点球大战中憾负中国队,屈居第二。Nor need only the players be robots. In a step that many of FIFAs critics may admire, Dr Veloso and her team are developing automated referees. That will not stop some teams from exploiting decidedly human traits, such as fouling by forcefully bumping into another robot. But it may result in more effective enforcement of things like the maximum kick-speed rule.而且不仅仅运动员是机器人。许多世界杯批评人士可能会羡慕的是,Veloso士及其团队正在开发自动裁判。这不会阻止一些队伍触犯人类比赛中的规则,比如有力地碰撞另一个机器人。但其可能导致更有效的强化诸如最大踢球速度限制这样的规定。What fascinates Dr Veloso most about RoboCup is the execution, during the game, of moves that had not been deliberately inserted into the algorithms controlling the robots. She is ebullient about an unexpected three-way pass and chip, worthy of a minor Messi and his Argentine teammates. Such unanticipated plays are examples of emergent behaviour, a hallmark of artificial intelligence at its highest level, and something she reckons RoboCup teams in all leagues will produce a lot more of with each passing year.机器世界杯最吸引Veloso士的的地方在于,比赛期间,对运动的执行不是事先设定在控制机器人的算法中。她乐于见到三角传球过人,就像参照梅西和他的阿根廷队友。这种意外的踢法是紧急处理中的例子,标志着人工智能的最高水平。她认为,每年机器世界杯各项比赛的队伍会产生越来越多的闪光点。So is 2050 an unrealistic deadline for robots to beat the best humans at football? Half a century is roughly the time that separates ENIAC, Americas first electronic computer, from Deep Blue, the IBM machine that beat chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov in 1997. Judged in that light, RoboCups goal does not seem absurd. Indeed, the question may be whether, come 2050, there are still any human football players around who have not been prosthetically enhanced in some way, making them cyborgs. RoboCup v RoboCop, anyone?2050年是不是虚拟的截止日期,那时候机器人会在足球方面打败人类?从美国第一台电子计算机ENIAC到1997年IBM生产出打败世界象棋大师Garry Kasparov的深蓝,大概过去了一个世纪。由此判断,机器人世界杯看上去并不荒唐。事实上,问题可能是到了2050年的时候,还有没有足球运动员在某方面没有进行强化,变成半机械人?机器人世界杯,还是半机器人世界杯? /201407/314860Syria’s new opposition leader叙利亚新任反对派领袖Better than the one before?会比上一任更出色吗?A different man faces the same problems换个面孔处理相同问题Jul 13th 2013 | CAIRO |From the print editionJarba’s turn at the top轮到贾尔巴掌舵SYRIANS can be forgiven for paying scant attention to the inauguration on July 6th of a new president of the Syrian National Coalition, the political opposition’s umbrella group in exile. The new man, Ahmed Jarba, is a leader of the powerful Shammar tribe, which has branches in Syria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. A former political prisoner, he hails from the north-eastern Syrian town of Hasaka.叙利亚反对派的流亡伞状组织——叙利亚全国联盟——在七月六日迎来了一位新主席,而这场就职典礼却未成为叙利亚人关注的焦点。但这也情有可原。新任主席为艾哈迈德·贾尔巴(Ahmed Jarba),他是强大的舍麦尔部族(Shammar tribe)的首领,此部族势力强大,一直延伸至叙利亚、伊拉克以及沙特阿拉伯。他出生于叙利亚东北部的哈塞克镇(Hasaka),曾经是一名政治犯。He is a respected figure. Yet there is little reason to believe he will wield more influence than his predecessor, Moaz al-Khatib, a prominent Damascus cleric. The rivalry of the coalition’s two main Arab backers, Saudi Arabia, which is close to Mr Jarba, and Qatar, whose preferred candidate narrowly lost the election, has long hamstrung the opposition. Two days after Mr Jarba’s election, Ghassan Hitto, a protégé of Qatar who had been appointed as an interim prime minister in March, resigned, citing his failure to form a government in exile.他确实受人尊敬,然而目前仍无法确信他的影响力会超过他的前任——备受尊崇的大马士革传教士Moaz al-Khatib。沙特阿拉伯和卡塔尔是联盟中主要的阿拉伯国家持者,而沙特与贾尔巴走的更近,卡塔尔的意向候选人则在大选中惜败。这两个国家长期以来的竞争是削弱反对派的重要原因。贾尔巴赢得大选两天后,卡塔尔的门生Ghassan Hitto宣布辞职,理由是他未能成功组建一个流亡政府。他在今年三月被任命为临时首相。Mr Jarba may persuade Saudi Arabia to provide more humanitarian aid but, in view of Western anxiety over the increasing number of extremists in rebel-held parts of Syria, he is unlikely soon to secure advanced weapons to take on President Bashar Assad’s forces. Mr Assad’s tightening grip over the most populous cities along a north-south axis in Syria’s west has dimmed the prospects, always faint, of peace talks that were said to be in the offing in Geneva.也许贾尔巴会说沙特阿拉伯向其提供更多人道主义援助,但由于西方社会十分担忧受反叛军控制下的叙利亚部分地区中极端主义者数目激增,他不可能如此快速地得弄到先进武器来对付阿萨德的部队。叙利亚西部阿萨德控制下的人口最多的几个城市呈南北一线状;而正是他的严格控制使得即将在日内瓦召开的,原本就扑朔迷离的和平谈话的前景越加不明朗。Meanwhile, the fighting opposition inside Syria is growing ever more fractious. Two rebels were reported to have been beheaded recently in Dana, a town in Idleb, a north-western province that is mainly in rebel hands, after they clashed with fighters from a rival group calling itself the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (“Greater Syria” in Arabic), which is tied to al-Qaeda. The group has been trying to make inroads into areas in the north that are held by more secular rebels. Mr Jarba has a tough task ahead.同时,叙利亚境内的反对派武装力量还在不断失控中。有报道称,在由反叛军控制的叙利亚西北部的伊德利卜(Idleb)省达纳镇(Dana),两名反对者在与一竞争组织发生冲突后被处以极刑,后者自称伊拉克伊斯兰国和al-Sham(阿拉伯语,“大叙利亚”),并与基地组织交往甚密。这个组织一直试图侵入叙利亚北部地区,而北部地区则为世俗反叛军所持有。贾尔巴还将面临严峻考验。201307/249147Books and Arts; Book Review;Russia and the West;Slip and slide文艺;书评;俄罗斯与西方世界; 跌落并下滑;Change or Decay: Russias Dilemma and the Wests Response. By Lilia Shevtsova and Andrew Wood.是变化还是衰退:俄罗斯的困境及西方的回应。作者丽莉娅·谢夫索娃、安德鲁·伍德。This book, says Mikhail Gorbachev, the former Soviet leader, in a foreword, “is different, and deserves to make an impact”. The first is certainly true. It takes the form of a lengthy series of exchanges between two old friends: Lilia Shevtsova, a Russian who works for Americas Carnegie Endowment in Moscow, and Sir Andrew Wood, a former British ambassador there. Their subject is the relationship between Russia and the West, still neurotic and plagued with misunderstandings 20 years after the Soviet collapse. Why do so many Russians feel threatened, betrayed and disappointed by the West? Some there see it as a flawed paradigm of human rights, free elections and the rule of law. Others find it a self-righteous bully.“这本书与众不同,能够产生有益的影响。”前苏联领导人米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫在前言中如是说。第一个当然是对的。它就像两个老朋友之间的长话家常:效力于位于莫斯科的美国卡内基基金会的俄罗斯人丽莉娅·谢夫索娃,以及曾被派驻在那里的英国前任大使安德鲁·伍德。他们的主题是俄罗斯和西方之间的关系,这种关系在苏联解体后的20年仍有些敏感并且存在误解。为什么如此多的俄罗斯人感到了来自西方的威胁、背叛和失望?一些人认为是有缺陷的关于人权、自由选举和法治示范。另一些人则认为是一种自以为是的霸权。Ms Shevtsova politely bemoans a “failure of imagination” in the West. Too comfortable with the old bipolar world, it splurged cash when it should have imposed conditions, was stingy when it should have been generous and naive when it should have been tough. Tolerance for Boris Yeltsins faults opened the way for the rigged elections and crony capitalism of Vladimir Putins ex-KGB regime. Her interlocutors realism is an excellent foil for this idealistic approach. European and American leaders, he argues, were “stumbling about in the dark”. For all their faults, it would have been unrealistic to expect much more of them. Mr Yeltsins rule did not inevitably presage Mr Putins.谢夫索娃对西方的“失败的想象力”稍感惋惜。安逸于过去的两极世界,在应该强加条件的时候挥霍现金,在应该大方的时候吝啬,在应该严厉的时候幼稚。对鲍里斯·叶利钦所犯错误的容忍为作弊选举和裙带资本主义——普京的前苏联国家安全委员会政权——打开了道路。她的谈话者的现实主义是这种现实方法的陪衬。他认为,欧美领导人“正在黑暗中跌倒”。鉴于他们所有的过错,再指望他们是不现实的。叶利钦的统治不见得就预示着普京的统治。New failures come in for scrutiny too. America in “reset” relations with the regime in Russia, bringing some gains but sacrificing (in the authors eyes) Western moral credibility. They rightly decry the unhealthily close ties of some European politicians to their counterparts in Russia.新的过错也受到极大关注。美国曾重新设定和俄罗斯国家政权的关系,取得了一定成果,但牺牲了(在作者眼中)西方的道德信誉。他们谴责了一些欧洲和俄罗斯政客之间过分亲密的关系。The debate coins useful and vivid terms. Ms Shevtsovas description of the “imitation partnership” between Russia and the West is acute. So is Sir Andrews description of the West as a simultaneous magnet, threat and rebuke to Russia. He recasts the Wests message to Russian oligarchs wanting to immigrate: “give me your rich, your sated, yearning to breathe safe.” A sharp insight concerns asymmetry. Russian leaders obsessively search for slights, weaknesses and plots in the world outside. Traffic the other way is scant. Ms Shevtsova notes how few Russians realise that the world is “fed up with our problems”.这个争论创造了有用而生动的术语。谢夫索娃关于俄罗斯和欧洲之间的“效仿合作关系”是敏锐的,同样的,安德鲁认为西方对俄罗斯来说是同步的磁铁、威胁和指责。他重新解释了西方传达给那些想要移民的俄罗斯寡头:“把你们的财富、贪婪、对安全的渴望都给我。”一个有关不对等的深刻洞察。俄罗斯领导人着迷般的在外部世界寻找忽视、软弱和密谋。寻找其他方法时间太短。谢夫索娃指出只有少数的俄罗斯人认识到外部世界“厌恶了我们的问题”。Both see bleak views ahead. Ms Shevtsova believes that the elites misrule is demoralising society and could “bring Russia down in flames”; Sir Andrew says that the “smell of danger is in the air”. Their joint conclusion likens Russia to a theatre: the play is over but the actors will not leave the stage and keep trying to win attention for what has become a plotless rigmarole; the audience feels trapped, bored and frustrated.双方都看到了前面的问题。谢夫索娃相信上层的暴政正在打击社会士气并可能“带领俄罗斯走向灭亡”;安德鲁则说“空气中有一股危险的气味”。他们共同的结论是把俄罗斯比作一个戏剧:戏剧已经结束,但是演员们不愿离开舞台,并试图为没有情节、冗长的内容赢得关注;观众则感到收困、厌倦、沮丧。Reading the book is like being an eavesdropper as two companions take a long country walk. They chew over great mutual concerns, sometimes with gentle teasing, mostly helping each other over intellectual obstacles, pondering the way ahead and the lessons of the path aly taken. The effect is intimate but a touch claustrophobic. One begins to hunger for some other views, even if less elegantly and sympathetically expressed.读这本书就像是偷听两个在乡村道路上漫步的人一样。他们深思共同关心的问题,有时会带有嘲讽,但更多的时候互相帮助来解决智力问题,思索前方的道路以及过去的经验。其效果是亲密的但有一点幽闭恐怖。即使温和地表示了同情,其中一方开始寻求其他观点。 /201305/238791All right,lets talk about your kitty cat.Now ,what made you get the kitty cat?我们来谈谈你的小猫吧 你怎么会想要养猫呢Eh,well,I wanted a dog,but I was like I cant take...我本来是要养的 但是我就像 我不能Awwww, there she is.How do you not want that?Yeah,little Chaz Bono.奥 就是它 你怎么可能不想要这只小可爱呢 是的 小CHAZ BONOAnd you got her,is...is that her name?Well her offical name is Cleo,but she,we call her CHAZ BONO,because shes ,Ive never met a cat like,你 这是她的名字吗 它的名字是Cleo 但是我们叫她chaz bono 因为她 我从没遇到过一只猫像you assumed for shes a boy,because normally dogsre boys,catre girls,right,but shes such a masculine energy.开始以为是个雄猫 因为正常来说像男孩子 猫像女孩子 对 但是她男性气质太强Right. and that we gonna always says he,right, fot the first week I thought it was boy,是的 她总是叫他 是的 头一个星期我以为她是只雄的I named her Oliver,like gotta call her Oliver.Like boy boy boy as we like, whats this name,so we call her Chaz Bono.给她取名oliver 叫她oliver 小伙小伙的叫着 这是什么名字 所以我们叫她chaz bonoThats her driving.Because because those tawny cats,thats a tawny cat,all three colors cats are girls,她在驾驶 因为黄褐色的猫 这是只黄褐色的猫 有三种颜色的猫都是雌性just you know that for the future,any cat with 3 colors is a femal.以后你在碰到就清楚了 只要有三种颜色的猫都是雌性and so, and she drives?Yes,she drive,shes cute as can be.So you got her as a kitten?所以 她会开车? 是的 她太可爱啦 你从她小时候就养了I got her as a kitten when did this problem start,tell people what shes doing?Shes peeing on my bed,because she hated my,and...我从小就养她了 什么时候开始这样的 跟大家说她在干嘛 她在我床上尿尿 因为她讨厌我So ,but there must be reasons usually do that to act out,because shes using a little box before that it means first of all,theres a down-comforter,肯定有原因她才会那么做的 因为她在用它前面的盘子 这意味着首先这有被子yeah,then shes peeing becuase its feathers,and shes smelling that.Thats what happened, oh.她尿尿是因为这些羽毛 她嗅到了 这就是原因 原来如此Thats even worse than peeing on your down-comforter,cause those are expensive,so...well I was renting the house so...and youre renting the comforter too?比在被子上尿尿更糟糕的是 这些被子还都死贵 反正是我租的房子 被子也是租的吗I gave it back.Ive waiting for the phone call,but it hasnt happened yet so...All right,thats one thing if its the down-comforter我退回去了 我一直在等人打电话给我 但是没有 好吧 被子是一个原因 另一个原因是and the other thing is shes mad at you,shes acting out,because...I think because I was working,I was gone all the time,她对你很生气 她在发泄 因为 可能是因为我 一直不在家so she was like, you know...right,so you have to get another kitty cat.I have to get another cat? thats right.所以她才这样 你知道的 对的 所以你要再买一只猫 我要再买一只猫 是的Thats the answer? Another cat?So shes not by herself,shes lonely.这就是你的 再买一只猫 她就不会一个人了 她很孤单Oh,that makes sense,people would assume cats can just be alone,you need to get another cat.奥 有道理 人们都以为猫不会孤单 你还要再买一只猫Yeah,all right I will get...were talking about a cat.Ok,a cat.好 我会的 我们居然在讨论猫 是的 猫All right,she wants me get another feline.I dont even know what youre even doing. All right.好吧 她想让我再买猫科动物 我甚至不知道你在干嘛 好的So Sliver Linings Playbook is in select theaters now,go see it. its so so good.Well be right back.《乌云背后的幸福线》现在在电影院上映 去看看吧 很不错的电影 我们很快会回来的注:EllenShow中英字幕来源于:艾伦秀字幕组 /201311/263094

Leaders社论India印度Would Modi save India or wreck it?莫迪是印度的救星还是克星?Indias Muslims have reason to fear Narendra Modi. He should reach out to them.莫迪令印度的穆斯林教徒害怕也是情有可原的,他应该与他们亲近些。EVEN five years ago it would have been inconceivable; but, with a general election due by next May, Narendra Modi is the front-runner to become Indias next prime minister.甚至5年前,那还无法想象;但值此大选将于明年五月份结束之际,莫迪成为最有可能担任印度下一届首相之人。The long-serving chief minister of Gujarat has always had a core of passionate supporters for his mix of economic efficiency and hardline Hindu nationalism, and because he gets things done, an increasing number of voters see him as the saviour of Indias struggling economy.长期担任古吉拉特邦的首席部长有几个核心持者,赞成他的整体经济效益以及加固印度的民族主义,这也是因为他干了些实事,所以越来越多的选民认为他可以拯救印度惨淡的经济。But Indian politics has no more divisive figure.但是此人在印度政坛中颇受争议。A terrible blot hangs over his reputation since an orgy of violence in his state in 2002 left over 1,000 dead, most of them Muslims.2002年在他管辖的地方暴力事件猖狂,造成1000人死亡,而其中大多数人是穆斯林人,他因此声名狼藉。Do his qualities outweigh that huge stain?那么他的能力能否盖过他这一巨大政治上污点呢?Modi madness莫迪之疯狂If Mr Modi looks like the countrys leader-in-waiting, that is a measure of the state of the ruling party.如果莫迪看起来像是印度的候选领导,那便是衡量执政党状况的一种方式。Congress has been in power since 2004 and long ago lost its vim.国会自2004年开始掌权,很早就失去了活力。Indias once-scintillating growth rate has fallen by half to 5%.印度曾经较高的增长率也跌了一半至2.5%。With a need to find new jobs for 10m Indians joining the workforce each year, such sluggish growth brings a terrible human cost.每年100万的印度人亟需找到新工作,但如此萧条的经济增长率使人力成本惨不忍睹。It is this backdrop that makes Congresss drift and venality look so dangerous.正是在这样的背景下,国会的人浮于事以及唯利是图是十分危险。The 81-year-old prime minister, Manmohan Singh, once a reformer, is serving out his days as a Gandhi family retainer.81岁的总理,曼莫汉·辛格曾经也是一位改革家,如今作为甘地家族的保护者,正不断为此务直至其任期满为止。Rahul Gandhi might end up as Congresss next candidate for prime minister; yet the princeling seems neither to want the job nor to be up to doing it.拉胡尔·甘地可能最后会成为国会下一届的总理候选人;然而这位王子看起来既不想要这份工作也不能胜任。In four of the five state elections announced this week Congress was deservedly walloped.本周,5个邦大选中就有4个宣布国会理应备受指责。One encouraging sign was the emergence of an anti-corruption movement in Delhi.但在新德里出现的反腐运动现象鼓舞人心。The main beneficiary of this passion for change, however, is Mr Modi.这次人们钟情于改变的热情高涨主要受益者是莫迪。Not only is he the prime-ministerial candidate for the Hindu, centre-right Bharatiya Janata Party but, to an unusual degree for an Indian party, he is the public face of its campaign.他不但成为了印度教里中右翼印度人民党的总理候选人,很大程度上,他也代表着这印度政党整个阵营的形象。His visibility helps account for its success this week in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi.他经常出现在公众视野中,这倒也使得他本周在拉贾斯坦邦、中央邦、恰蒂斯加尔邦以及新德里大获成功。A brilliant orator, the 63-year-old attracts huge crowds around the country.一位才能出众的63岁演说家,吸引了全国大批拥护者。Whereas Indian politicians usually pay people to attend their rallies, Mr Modi charges an entrance fee—which is both a sign of the enthusiasm he arouses and a way of making supporters feel they belong to a powerful movement.鉴于印度的政治家们通常都花钱让百姓参加他们的集会,莫迪反而收取入会费——这也表明他能唤起民众的热情以及使持者感觉归属于这一强大运动中。Many of Indias business titans are besotted with him. Anil Ambani of Reliance Group calls him “the lord of men, a leader among leaders and a king among kings”.许多商业大亨十分信赖他。信实集团的安尼尔·安巴尼称他为“人们的主,领袖中的领袖,王中之王”。Investors think that he would fire up the economy. Bright young acolytes are giving up well-paid jobs to join his campaign.投资家们认为他可以带动经济的增长。如今聪明年轻的党羽正放弃高薪的工作加入到他的阵营。Much about Mr Modi appeals to this newspaper too.本报也对于他的诸多事情十分感兴趣。He is a man of action and an outspoken outsider in a political system stuffed with cronies.他富有执行力,在充满结党营私的政治体系中依旧可以是直言不讳的旁观者。In contrast with the pampered Mr Gandhi, great-grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru and son of Sonia Gandhi, Congresss behind-the-scenes boss, Mr Modi comes from a low caste and a modest background as a tea-seller; his success is down to drive and ambition.与国会的幕后老板—养尊处优惯了的甘地相反,莫迪只是社会地位低、背景谦卑的茶商;他的成功归因于他的执行力与雄心壮志。And in a system shot through with corruption, he seems pretty clean.在充斥着腐败的体系中,他看上去还十分清廉。Unusually for a serious contender to be prime minister, Mr Modi has a record from a dozen years as a chief minister.对于严肃认真的莫迪而言,竞选担任总理,这不同寻常。莫迪曾有十来年的光阴担任首席部长。Gujarat, a state of 60m people, has boomed as he has cut red tape and built roads and power lines.一个拥有6千万人口的古吉拉特邦,自他删去那些繁文禄节,修建道路与电线后,欣欣向荣起来了。Business has flourished and investment has poured in.商业日益繁荣,外资也越来越多。Gujarat accounts for just 5% of Indias population, yet produces nearly a quarter of its exports.古吉拉特邦仅占据印度人口的5%,然而却占据了印度出口量的将近四分之一。State GDP has almost tripled under Mr Modi. Most social indicators have also improved.在莫迪的管理下,该地区的GDP已经近乎翻了三番。大多数社会指标也得以提高了。Even among Muslims, generally poorer than Hindus, the poverty rate has fallen from over 40% to 11% in two decades.甚至在比印度教徒还更为贫困的穆斯林信徒中,贫穷比率也在近20年里从近40%下降到11%。Mr Modi talks of replicating Gujarats rapid growth, industrial development and improved infrastructure across India.莫迪论及全印度可复制古吉拉特邦的快速增长,工业的发展与基础设施的改善。That is refreshing. Politicians usually promise subsidies and largesse for special interests.这想法很新鲜。因为政客们通常都只是承诺给补助金并且出于特殊利益才慷慨赠予。This is the Modi who could save India and greatly benefit hundreds of millions of the worlds poorest people.正是莫迪可以挽救印度,数以千万的贫苦百姓能得以从水生火热中逃脱。But his business supporters should face the fact that there is also a Modi who risks breaking India.但是他的商业持者也应意识到另一个事实—莫迪有可能会把印度给毁了。Two serious questions hang over his character.他性格方面有两处非议。The first concerns his leadership.首先关乎他的领导权。He is an autocratic loner who is a poor delegator.他是位独裁的孤家寡人,由自己全权代表。That may work at state level, but not at national level—particularly when the BJP is likely to come to power only as part of a coalition.在治理一个小邦上,这一问题还无关紧要,但是在管理国家上而言,这点就行不通了—尤其当印度人民党可能会作为联合的一部分而掌权。A man who does not listen to the counsel of others is likely to make bad decisions, and if he were prime minister of India, and thus had his finger on the button of a potential nuclear conflict with Pakistan, Mr Modi would be faced with some very serious ones.一位不听取他人建议的人可能会作出错误的决定,要是这样的莫迪做了印度的总理,势必会引发与巴基斯坦的核武器冲突,等待着他的还有一些此类非常严重的问题。Beyond the pale?不谋其政?The second issue concerns the dful pogrom that happened on Mr Modis watch.第二点便是关系到莫迪保护范围内的地区出现了大屠杀事件。No Indian court has found him guilty of any crime.但印度法庭没有加以他任何罪名。Yet it is hard to find an Indian who believes he does not share some responsibility for what happened—if only through neglect.印度人民可不这么看,他们认为他多少应为此事付些责任—就从疏于职守来看。He is banned from travel to America because of it.他因此被禁止前往美国旅行。In this context, Mr Modis failure to show remorse, which goes down well with his Hindu chauvinist base, speaks volumes.在这一背景下,莫迪没有表达一点懊悔之情,但在印度沙文主义的腹地他却是一番虔诚致歉。The BJP is not the only party in India with a bloody history.印度人民党并不是印度唯一一个用鲜血构筑的党派。Congress turned a blind eye in 1984 as thousands of Sikhs were massacred in rage at the murder of Indira Gandhi by her Sikh bodyguards.1984年因英迪拉·甘地险些被锡克教保镖谋杀而盛怒之下杀害了数以千计的锡克教教徒。Yet Congress does not pursue a policy against Sikhs or any other ethnic or religious group, while Mr Modi has devoted much of his life to the pursuit of an extreme form of Hindu nationalism.然而国会对此视若罔闻,也不出台对抗锡克教徒或者其他种族抑或宗教群体的政策,尽管莫迪花了他大半人生来追求使印度教成为国教这一极端方式。His state party included no Muslim candidates in last years election and he has refused to wear a Muslim skull-cap.他的政党将去年大选的穆斯林候选人排除在外,他还拒绝戴穆斯林的无边便帽。Other BJP leaders have worn them.而其他印度人民党的领袖都戴上了。He failed to condemn riots in Uttar Pradesh in September in which most of the victims were Muslim.9月份对于主要以穆斯林教徒受害者居多的北方邦动乱,莫迪也未能对此次动乱加以谴责。All sins of omission perhaps, but in India symbols like skull-caps matter—as Mr Modi well knows.可能就算忽略所有的过错,然而对于诸如无边便帽这样的印度象征物也不可置之不理。Indias great strength is its inclusiveness. In the next five months Mr Modi needs to show that his idea of a pure India is no longer a wholly Hindu one.印度的最大优势就是它的包容性。在接下来的5个月,莫迪需要表示下他想要的一个纯粹的印度并不再是唯独印度教的那个。How he does that is his own affair, but an unambiguous public demonstration that he abhors violence and discrimination against Muslims is a bare minimum.他怎么做那是他自己的事情,但是让他在公众场合明确表态讨厌反感以暴力、歧视对待穆斯林,这是最低的一项要求。Otherwise, this newspaper will not back him.否则,本报不会持他。 201401/272010

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