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Indias Hindu nationalists:印度的印度教民族主义者:Men in shorts穿短裤的人们The election over, Narendra Modi may drop the Hindu right选举结束,纳伦德拉莫迪或许将限制印度教权力。Not physical jerks这可不是单纯的体操。POLITICAL pundits have spent much of the past week debating exit polls, released just after the final day of voting on May 12th. The polls pointed, more or less, to a single outcome: the Bharatiya Janata Party will wallop the incumbent party, Congress, and, led by Narendra Modi, will form the next government. Investors pushed the stockmarket to a record high. But details matter, such as whether Mr Modi can rely on a narrow coalition or will need a broad one. Here, the pollsters cannot be relied upon. The official results are due on May 16th, after The Economist goes to press.5月12日是印度大选投票的最后一天,投票结束后不久,政府即公布了一份票站民意调查。在过去的一周中,政治专家们纷纷就这一调查结果展开辩论。调查或多或少地指向了同一个结果:纳伦德拉.莫迪领导的印度人民党将在选举中击溃现任执政党—国大党,组建下届政府。投资者们借机推动股市达到了创纪录的新高。但是一些细节将对最后的结果产生重大影响,例如莫迪先生是否可以依赖这一狭隘的联盟或是去寻求一个更广泛的合作。民意调查并不可靠,官方的结果将会在5月16日即本刊付梓后公布。A second debate concerned the clout of the Hindu right. Since he was a boy, Mr Modi has been an activist member in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, formed in 1925 as a pro-Hindu social movement. It began with charitable aims but always carried quasi-military overtones as men in brown shorts performed dawn callisthenics. These days the RSS is rebranding itself as a more youthful, right-leaning, nationalist organisation, with rugby and volleyball on offer as alternatives to physical jerks.第二个辩论则有关于印度教权力的影响。从童年起,莫迪先生就一直是印度国民志愿务团的活跃成员。印度国民志愿务团成立于1925年,持印度教社会化运动。它是为了慈善的目的而成立,但是成员们每天早晨穿着棕色短裤演练体操却使它染上了一丝准军事化的色。这些天来,国民志愿务团致力于重新标榜自己为一个更加年轻的,右倾的民族主义组织,并且提供橄榄球和排球作为一个替代体操活动的选择。Throughout the election campaign, the RSS supplied volunteers for the BJP. The organisations sway within the party remains strong. Mr Modi became party leader in 2013 when the RSS chose to back him. Observers see an effort to expand the RSSs “majoritarian” appeal, with less talk of Hindu identity and more about national strength. Smooth-tongued spokesmen downplay a once-core assertion of the RSS: that to be Indian was to be Hindu.在整个的竞选活动中,RSS一直为印度人民党提供志愿者。该组织在人民党内保持着巨大的影响力。2013年,在RSS的持下,莫迪先生成为了印度人民党的领袖。观察家们将其视作印度国民志愿务团扩大其“多数人统治”诉求的努力,只是现在他们更少地谈及印度教的身份,转而更多地从国家力量的出发。圆滑的发言人如今则对务团曾经核心的主张—“印度人就得是印度教徒”轻描淡写。Yet Mr Modis rise brings questions about the role of the RSS and the wider Sangh Parivar, or family of Hindu nationalist outfits. Some have high expectations. About 2,000 volunteers turned out to help Mr Modi in Varanasi alone. On May 12th members of the RSSs student wing cheered Mr Modi as “one of us ”, claiming he would bring relief on issues dear to them. These include calls for a temple to be built at the site of a demolished mosque in Ayodhya in Uttar Pradesh; for Muslim-majority Kashmir to lose its special status under the Indian constitution; and for the abolition of a separate marriage code for Muslims. Not for these people discussions about economic policies.然而,莫迪先生的就职带来了有关RSS与更广泛的“联合家庭”—印度教民族主义者组织联合间的角色问题。有些人抱着很高的期待。仅在瓦拉纳西市就有约2000名志愿者帮助莫迪先生的竞选。5月12日,加入国民志愿务团的学生们便欢呼莫迪先生是“我们的一员”,宣称他将会对有利于他们的事情(对那些穆斯林和无宗教主义者则充满忧虑)带来解决办法。这些就包括呼吁在北方邦阿约提亚市的一处废旧的清真寺旧址上修建一座寺庙;呼吁取消穆斯林人口占多数的克什米尔地区在印度宪法下的特殊地位;呼吁废除专为穆斯林制定的单独的婚姻法。以及不要为这些人讨论经济政策。A senior RSS organiser in Varanasi talks of Mr Modi restoring pride in “what the nation lost in the last 1,000 years, in the sons of the nation, the Hindus who originally belonged to this country”. Only once before, at the defeat of Indira Gandhi in 1977, has the RSS thrown itself so heavily into party politics. Just as it is helping Mr Modis cause, so he is helping the RSS, according to one of its spokesmen in Delhi. With more effective recruiting, especially online, 10,000 new members are said to be signing up each month, including at universities and among employees at the countrys booming IT firms.RSS的一位高级官员在瓦拉纳西市谈及莫迪先生重建了印度人的骄傲,这份骄傲是“在过去的1000年中这个国家所丢失了的事物中,在这个国家的子孙间,在那些从最开始就属于这片土地的印度教徒身上”。之前只有在1977年英迪拉.甘地失败的那一次竞选中,RSS才如此激烈地参与到过党派政治中。据德里的一位发言人称,RSS在帮助莫迪先生的事业,他也在帮助RSS。得益于更有效率的招募行动,尤其是在网络上的,据说每个月都有10,000名新成员加入,而其中就包含着在校大学生和这个国家冉冉升起的IT行业的雇员们。If Mr Modi becomes prime minister, members of the broad Sangh Parivar family say they expect a more forceful approach to Pakistan and China. School textbooks could be reworked to show history “in the right way”, as one puts it, for example by telling how Maratha kings triumphed over Muslim armies.如果莫迪先生当选为总理,广大的“联合家庭”成员们期待着对巴基斯坦和中国采取更为强硬的措施。学校的教科书也会被重新编写,例如通过描述马拉地国王如何打败穆斯林军队这种所谓的“正确的方式”展现历史,。Yet Mr Modis iness for collaboration may prove passing. It is true that on May 10th he spent two hours with the RSSs leader, Mohan Bhagwat, reportedly to assess the national campaign and potential ruling coalitions. But with voting over, the BJP will not need its armies of street volunteers. And Hindu nationalists may recall how in Mr Modis early years of running the state of Gujarat, he mostly kept the RSS at arms length, worried that a rival power might arise. Widening his appeal to all Indians may mean turning his back on the more divisive outfits to which he has been close.然而莫迪先生的合作意愿可能只是短暂的。5月10日,他与RSS的领导人莫汉.巴格瓦特会谈了两个小时,据报道是在评估全国运动以及潜在的执政联盟。但是当投票结束后,印度人民党将不再需要街头的志愿者军队。那时印度教民族主义者或许会记起莫迪先生早年在古吉拉特邦执政时是如何做的——大多数时候他都会与RSS保持距离 ,以避免反对力量的出现。迎合更广大的印度人民意味着莫迪先生会背离这一引起纠纷的组织,尽管他一直同印度国民务团关系亲密。 201405/302140Business商业报道Twitters IPO推特上市Going cheep?先闻其声?The microblogging firms shares may not be the bargain investors are hoping for推特股价可能高于投资者预期TWITTER is aly a social-media star.推特已经是社交明星。Now it hopes to become the toast of the stockmarket too.现在它又希望可以成为股票市场的新星。The firm has gradually been unveiling more information about its business.为了准备在纽约券交易所的上市交易,But as it gets y for its first day of trading as a public company on the New York Stock Exchange, which looks likely to be on November 7th, opinions about a fair price for the shares vary considerably.这家公司现在开始逐渐公开一部分商业信息。上市日期大概在11月7日左右,现在对其股票上市的价格有诸多意见。The firm has announced a provisional range of between 17 and 20 for its stock, which would value it at up to 11.1 billion.推特表示其股票价格暂定在17到20美金之间,总价值可达111亿美元。Speculation is rife that Twitter and its bankers could set an even loftier price before trading starts, though as we went to press no change had been announced.虽然现在还没有消息称公司会改变发售价但普遍认为推特及其会在股票发售前定一个较高的价格。If they do push the price higher, long-term investors could get their fingers burned.如果他们真的抬高了发售价,那些长线投资者的利益将会有所损失。Twitbulls point out that Twitter is going public at a time when social-media stocks are all the rage.推文指出现在社交媒体类股票风靡一时,于是推特选在这时上市。On October 30th Facebooks share price, which had aly risen by 84% this year, soared in after-hours trading following news that its latest quarterly revenue had hit 2 billion.10月30号,脸书公布其最新季度收入达到20亿美金,之后其股票飙升,而今年它的股票已经升了84%了。LinkedIn has seen its stellar revenue growth slow a bit recently, but its shares are still up 95% this year.LinkedIn 最近的主要收入增长有所放缓,但今年他的股票仍涨了95%。Twitters boosters also claim that the company deliberately set a conservative initial price range to fuel investor interest in its stock, noting that an internal valuation conducted by the firm in August reckoned its shares were worth 20.62 each at the time.推特的持者声称公司故意设置了一个保守的价格区间以吸引投资者,公司在8月份内部股价认为当时价值20.62美元每股。The company has continued to increase its audience, and now boasts 232m users that visit it at least once a month.现在公司的关注度在持续上升,至少有2亿3千2百万用户每月至少浏览一次。Small wonder, then, that some financial folk are predicting Twitters stock will fly even if the IPO price is a bit higher than the existing range.不足为奇的是,一些民间金融预测推特的股票会上涨即使IPO的价格略高于现有区间。Brian Wieser of Pivotal Research Group reckons its shares will be changing hands at 29 by the end of the year.广告业研究机构匹维托研究集团的布莱恩?维瑟认为这股票到年末会涨至29美元。Others are even more optimistic.甚至还有一席人表现得更为乐观。Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners Management, a hedge fund, has said he thinks the share price of Twitter could double within its first month of trading and that he would be willing to pay up to 32.50 for its shares. Twitbulls like to point out that Twitter is currently generating about 2.30 of revenue per user.海风资产管理公司的对冲基金管理人Doug Kass表示他认为股票价格会在交易的第一个月翻倍,他愿意以32.5美元的价格买入股票。That is much less than Facebook makes from its audience, implying Twitter has plenty of room to boost sales.推文指出推特最近可以在每个用户上收入约2.30美元,远脸书的收益,旨在暗示推特任由上涨空间。But they gloss over an important fact. Unlike Facebook and LinkedIn, which were making healthy profits before they went public, Twitter is still losing money—134m in the first nine months of this year compared with 71m in the same period of 2012.但是他们掩盖了一个重要事实。推特不像脸书和LinkedIn那样在上市前健康盈利,而是还在亏损。These losses make it impossible to compare Twitters IPO with others using the traditional yardstick of a price-earnings ratio.今年的前9个月亏了1.34亿美金,去年同期则亏损了7千1百万美金。这些亏损使得推特的IPO不能用传统的价格收益比来衡量。Instead, analysts often look at another measure: the ratio of a firms proposed market capitalisation at IPO to the past 12 months sales.相反,分析家经常看其他数据,例如公司就过去12个月销售及IPO所提出的公司目标市值比。Jay Ritter, a professor at the University of Florida, has calculated this ratio for Twitter using a share price of 18.50, which is the midpoint of its proposed range.Jay Ritter佛罗里达大学教授根据这个比计算得出推特的股价应在18.50美元,这一价格处于公司提出的股价范围的中位。Counting in restricted shares and those associated with outstanding stock options, this produces a market cap of 12.9 billion and a price-to-sales ratio of 24.1 based on Twitters revenues over the past 12 months.计算有限的股票和相关的优秀股权,这产生了大约129亿元的市场价值和24.1的市销率。That is the third-highest PSR of any IPO in America since 1980 involving firms with significant revenues.这是自1980年以来美国企业重要收入IPO中第三高的市销率。Shares in the two companies ahead of Twitter in the chart—Facebook and Palm, a now-defunct maker of hand-held devices—fell sharply in the months following their IPOs; and Mr Ritter notes that the top 15 companies in his PSR ranking saw their share prices drop by an average of 5% in the six months after their first day of trading.表上领先推特的2家公司—脸书和Plam的股票继IPO之后在本月快速下降;Ritter先生表示15家市销率榜上的顶尖企业的股票在第一日交易后的6个月中都平均下降了5%。“A valuation at a high price-to-sales ratio removes a lot of the upside potential for investors in the public market,” he says.在公共市场中,基于高市销比的估价减少了投资者的上涨潜力。The challenge faced by companies with high ratios is to generate revenue fast enough to meet investors expectations.那些有着高市销比的公司面临着加快产生收益已满足投资者期许的挑战。So far, Twitter has only a microscopic share of the 118 billion a year global market for online advertising.到目前为止推特只拥有1180亿美元每年的网络广告全球市场的微型股。Yet the fact that many people tweet on their smartphones means it is well-positioned to take advantage of growth in mobile advertising.然而,很多人用智能机发推特表示了它能很好地利用手机广告的增长。On the other hand the compact nature of its tweets, limited to 140 characters, means that Twitter will find it harder than Facebook to generate ad formats that mint money.另一方面,由于140字符的限制使得推特短小精悍,这意味着较脸书推特跟难产生广告效应从而盈利。And it now faces much stiffer competition from the social network and other companies such as Google in the mobile-ad arena.同时现在它正面临着来自其他社交媒体和类似谷歌的公司在手机广告领域的挑战。Trick or tweet?恶作剧还是推特So what is a fair value for Twitters shares?所以推特的真正股票价值是多少?Aswath Damodaran, a professor at New York University, has built a valuation model that assumes Twitter will scoop up around 5.5% of the online ad market by 2023, giving it revenues of 11.2 billion.Aswath Damodaran纽约大学教授建立了价值模型,估计到2023年推特的网络广告市场将会增加5.5%,这会给企业带来112亿美元的收入。His model also posits an operating margin of 25% for the company, which seems plausible given that of other internet firms that have grown fast.他的模型还假定基于其他网络公司快速发展的情况下,推特营运利润率为25%看上去是可信的。Based on his analysis, he reckons Twitters shares are worth 17.84 each, which is towards the lower end of Twitters current price range.根据他的分析,他推算推特的股票脚趾17.84美元每股,低于推特最近给出的价格范围。Given the many uncertainties that still dog the companys business model, a price of around 18 a share seems reasonable.由于公司发展仍有很多不确定性,每股18美元左右的售价是比价合理的。But investors who like volatility may still want to take a flutter on Twitters stock even if the price is somewhat higher.但是那些活跃的投资者仍想入手推特的股票,即使价格有些高。Given all of the hype around the company, Twitters shares could spike upwards immediately after its IPO, allowing investors to mint money by buying and selling quickly.在大肆宣传之后,推特的股票会在其上市后发行,允许投资者以快速买卖的方式流动资金。So Twitters flotation could be a great short-term trading opportunity.所以推特发行股票是一个很好的短期交易机会。But at anything above 18 each, its shares will be a poor long-term investment.但是任何一股超过18美元每股后,他就会变成长期投资。 /201311/263573Some are little more than rocks, others substantial mountains, covered in woodland. 有的也就比岩石大点,其他的则是覆盖着森林的山脉。The first British person to see that was captain Cook, who stood here in 1770, and for the first time, realized the scale of the Great Barrier Reef. 第一个到达这里的英国人是库克船长,他1770年来到这里,第一次意识到大堡礁的规模。He also realized that the scale of the problem that faced him. 但他也意识到眼前的问题。For Cook and his men without benefits of modern charts and sonar, it represented nothing more than a deadly labyrinth. 对库克和他的船员而言,没有现代航海图和定位装置。这就是致命的迷宫。But its exactly this complexity and the sheer size of the reef that has created so many opportunities for life. 但也正是它的复杂和庞大,大堡礁才能提供各种生物各种生存机会。There are fish of almost every imaginable kind. 这里有各种能想得到的。Coral eaters, plant eaters, plankton eaters, the hunters and the hunted. 以珊瑚为食,以植物为食,以浮游生物为食。Bluefin trevally, powerful predators that hunt in packs. 蓝鳍鰺,非常强悍的群体捕食者。One minute that apparently minding their own business, the next, charging their prey with a sudden rush. 前一分钟还在独自晃晃悠悠,下一秒随即就对他们的猎物展开攻击。Working together, they create confusion. 它们一起合作,制造混乱。The trevally depart as quickly as they arrived, and the colorful reef fish regroup again to feed.它们来无影去无踪,随后这些色缤纷的鱼又重新聚集在一起觅食。201409/326415

Finance and economics财经商业Defining class in Mexico墨西哥阶层划定Middle worth中产阶级的价值Politicians and statisticians hunt for the middle class政治家和统计员们寻找中产阶级IN THE hallowed name of the middle class, Mexicos politicians have been doing a lot of huffing and puffing lately.在中产阶级的神圣名义下,墨西哥的政治家最近一直在进行大量愤怒抨击。The source of their indignation is the presidents plan to raise income tax on annual salaries over 500,000 pesos and impose value-added tax on private schooling and mortgage payments.他们愤怒的起因是总统对年工资收入超过500,000比索的人提高所得税和对私人学校和抵押贷款征收增值税的计划。That, the peoples representatives complain, would beat the stuffing out of ordinary, hard-working families, so they plan to spare them the tax on schooling and housing.这样的话,人民的代表们抱怨道,会使普通的,努力工作的家庭一蹶不振,所以他们打算帮他们在教育和房贷方面减轻税务负担。If only the middle class were so lucky.如果中产阶级有这么幸运的话。According to measurements by the national statistics institute, most of its members earn nowhere near the 500,000-peso threshold, let alone send their children to private school or pay mortgages.根据国家统计局的测量,它的大部分成员每年赚的远远不到500,000门槛,更不用说送他们的孩子去私人学校或者付抵押贷款了。Defining the middle class in Mexico has become a subject of fierce debate since two pundits, Luis de la Calle and Luis Rubio, published a book last year called Mexico: A Middle Class Society.明确在墨西哥的中产阶级成为激烈辩论的一个话题,自从两个学者,Luis de Ia Calle and Luis Rubio,去年出版了一本名为墨西哥:一个中产阶级社会。Poor No More, Developed Not Yet.不再贫穷,尚未发达。It claimed that more than half of Mexicos population had joined the bourgeoisie.它声称超过一半的墨西哥人口已经成为了资产阶级。INEGIs statisticians were sceptical, partly because the book used access to technology as a measure of social status.国家统计局的统计员们对此持怀疑态度,部分是因为这本书以接触到现代科技作为社会地位的估量措施。So the institute set out to develop a new definition, not based on any preconceptions of what a middle-class household should look like.所以这个机构着手发展一个新的定义,不是基于任何对中产阶级的房子应该是什么样子的先入之见。First, INEGI looked at spending rather than income.首先,国家统计局把视线投向花费而不是收入。It reckoned spending is less likely to be underreported in its household surveys, and may also incorporate information about savings and expected future earnings.它认为花费更不可能在家庭调查中被低估,并且它可能还包含着储蓄和预期未来收入的信息。Household spending, however, can be a slippery gauge of social status.不过家庭花费可能是社会地位一个不容易捉摸的标准。It may rise in families with many children and fall among the elderly.它可能在孩子很多的家庭上升和老年人下降。It can be distorted by one-off events, such as illness or funerals.它可能被一次性的事件曲解,例如疾病或者葬礼。So INEGI focused on 17 categories of spending that are recurrent and to some extent discretionary, such as the number of rooms in a home, or outlays on chicken, education or haircuts.所以国家统计局集中关注17种周期性的并且在某种程度上具有任意性的花费,例如家里的房间数,或者在鸡肉上的花费,教育或者美发。This allowed INEGI to sort households into seven groups.这样使国家统计局将家庭分为七个种类。It then analysed these using more typical variables, such as income per head, education, age, family size and type of work.它接着使用更多的典型变量来分析这些家庭,如每个人头的收入,教育,年龄,家庭规模和工作类型。The combination of the two forms of analysis allowed it to establish levels of income at which consumption patterns tend to change.两种分析形式的结合让它能确立收入水平,在这种水平下消费模式有变化的趋势。INEGI concluded that Mexicos middle class, at 39% of the population, was much smaller than Messrs De la Calle and Rubio had estimated, but in keeping with the estimates of institutions like the World Bank.国家统计局总结墨西哥的中产阶级,占人口的39%,远远小于两位学者曾经估计的,而与像世界之类的机构估计一致。Moreover, middle-class Mexicans are not nearly as affluent as the politicians imagine, even if they are a lot more secure than those beneath them. Annual incomes reach only about 120,000 pesos—less than a quarter of the sum needed to enter the top tax bracket.更进一步,中产墨西哥人不是如同政治家们想象的那么富裕的,尽管他们要远远比那些在他们之下的人要安全的多。Only 29% of the middle class have children at private school, and just 9% pay mortgages.年度收入仅仅为120,000比索—少于进入最高税级所需要数额的四分之一。仅仅有29%的中产阶级的孩子在私人学校上学,以及9%在付房贷。Politicians, in contrast, earn upwards of 1m pesos a year, which makes them almost ten times wealthier than a middle-class person as defined by INEGI.政治家们,相反,每年赚超过1百万比索,这让他们几乎比一个被国家统计局定义为中产阶级的人富有十倍。No wonder they are out of touch.难怪他们与现实脱节。 /201310/260335

Its time to go again to the A Moment of Science mailbag.又到了抽取《科学一刻》信箱来信的时间了。A listener writes:一位听众这样写到:Dear A Moment of Science,亲爱的《科学一刻》栏目:I keep hearing about how diet soda is bad for you.我听说无糖汽水对身体有害。This is troubling, since I drink lots of the stuff because has zero calories.这可是件麻烦事,因为自从我听说无糖汽水不含热量后我就喝了很多。So, is diet soda really bad? And if so, why?所以说,无糖汽水真是有害的吗?如果是,那原因呢?Well, the most accurate we can offer to the first question is “maybe.”好了,我能给第一个问题最为精确的回答是“可能”。As for why? We dont really know.至于为什么?我实际上也不知道。To elaborate, a few studies have found links between sweetened beverages including fruit drinks and regular and diet soda and depression.确切的说,少有研究发现甜味饮料,包括果汁,含糖和无糖汽水与沮丧情绪有关。For example, one study by researchers at the National Institutes of Health looked at survey data from more than 260,000 people.例如,国立卫生研究院研究人员做了一项26万多人的调研,Those who drank at least four cans of regular soda per day were 30 percent more likely to have been diagnosed with depression.每天饮用超过四罐含糖汽水的人,就有30%被诊断出可能患有沮丧情绪症。People who drank diet soda were even more prone to depression, at 31 percent.31%饮用无糖汽水的人更容易情绪沮丧,And people who drank four or more cans of fruit drinks were the most vulnerable, being 51 percent more likely to be diagnosed with depression.饮用四罐或者更多果汁的人更加脆弱,高达51%的人可能会遭受沮丧情绪的困扰。To be clear, the study found an association, not necessarily a causal link.需要说明的是,这一研究找到的是相关性,而不是必然的因果联系。In other words, its not clear that drinking diet soda actually causes depression.换句话说,还不清楚无糖汽水是否真的会导致情绪沮丧。But its also possible that something in sweetened drinks does in fact cause or at least raise the risk for depression.但是,依然有可能的是甜饮料中的某些物质确实导致或者至少增加了情绪沮丧的风险。More research will help sort that out.更多研究将会持这一结论。So it seems reasonable to conclude that if you have a family history of depression, it may not be a bad idea to lay off sweetened drinks.因此,似乎有理由认为,如果有抑郁症家族史的人,停止饮用甜味饮料可能不是个坏主意。Even if studies have not proven that they trigger depression, there is a link.即使研究没有明它们能触发抑郁,但也据有相关性。 /201311/262949

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