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2017年10月20日 09:25:48

Well that took longer than it should have. The UK government has finally started selling down its 78 per cent stake in Royal Bank of Scotland. It should have started the process years ago. The shares closed at 338p on Monday. In August 2013 they were trading at around 340p, and in the intervening period there have been no dividends. About 31bn of UK taxpayers’ money has been tied up for two years in the bank, with no return. The public would have done better had its money been in a savings account, despite the woefully-low interest rates on offer. The government, it seems, is not a good allocator of investment capital.这件事本不该花这么长时间。英国政府终于开始出售其所持的苏格兰皇家(RBS) 78%的股份。它本该在数年前就开始这么做。周一,该行股票收于每股338便士。2013年8月,股价约为每股340便士,而且在政府干预期间未派发任何股息。约310亿英镑的英国纳税人资金被锁定在该行股份上长达两年,没有获得任何回报。如果当时把这些钱放在储蓄账户里,公众的收益原本还会高一些,尽管提供的利率低得可怜。看起来,英国政府并不擅长配置投资资本。An earlier sale would have been beneficial all around. Lloyds Banking Groupshares have risen 11 per cent since the government started selling down its stake in September 2013. In the same period, RBS has lost 7 per cent. True, RBS has been in a much weaker position than Lloyds. But the government stake, and the real (and realised) threat of political intervention in the bank has been a drag on the share price. Freed of that risk, the shares might have performed much better. And by selling down the stake earlier, the government might have enabled RBS to raise equity on the capital markets. It has been unable to do that (imagine the outcry if the government had ended up putting more money into RBS), so it has had to sell assets such as Citizens, its US bank, instead.更早一些出售原本对各方都有利。劳埃德集团(Lloyds Banking Group)股价在英国政府2013年9月开始减持以来已上涨11%。同一时期,苏格兰皇家的股价下跌了7%。没错,这与劳埃德相比,苏格兰皇家的状况一直疲弱得多。但政府持股以及政治干预该行的切实威胁(这种威胁最终变成了现实)一直在拖累该行股价。如果没有这些风险,苏格兰皇家的股价表现可能会好得多。此外,如果英国政府更早一些减持股份,苏格兰皇家原本能够在资本市场筹集股本。但该行一直无法这样做(想象一下如果政府最终要向该行注入更多资金所引发的强烈抗议吧),因此它不得不转而出售资产,例如旗下的美国Citizens。One of the reasons that the government may have been holding back is the risk of being seen to sell at a discount to the “in” price of 502p. But this argument was always a red herring. The in price is irrelevant. The government did not invest in the bank in order to make a profit, it invested in order to avoid the consequences of a collapse. With the threat of a collapse gone, there was little reason to hold on. As any er of the small print of investment literature knows, past prices are no guide to the future. RBS shares may never return to 502p — there is no point assuming that day will eventually arrive. Better for the UK taxpayer to sell out now, and to continue doing so (via quick, cheap institutional placements, rather than lengthy, expensive public offerings) until the stake has gone altogether.英国政府一直不启动减持的原因之一或许是,这么做可能会被人认为是在折价出售(相对于每股502便士的买入价格而言)。但这种论点其实一直是在转移人们的注意力。买入价格无关紧要。英国政府投资该行不是为了盈利,而是为了避免其倒闭。当倒闭威胁消失后,就没什么理由再继续持有了。正如任何读过投资宣传材料附属细则的人所熟知的,过去的价格对未来没有指导意义。苏格兰皇家的股价可能永远回不到每股502便士,也没有必要假设那一天终将到来。对英国纳税人来说,最好是立刻抛出并持续抛出(通过快速、低成本的机构配售,而非漫长、高成本的公开发售),直至彻底出清所持股份。 /201508/390821昆明柏德口腔医院看牙齿美白的价格昆明医学院附属延安医院烤瓷牙好不好A problem as old as humanity has been solved. We all need to know how we look with a full face of make-up; but we are too lazy to apply it. L’Oréal’s Makeup Genius app allows users to try different looks without getting messy. Among the most enthusiastic adopters of this breakthrough? The Chinese.一个自人类诞生以来就有的问题解决了。我们都想知道我们上完妆的脸会是什么样子;但我们又懒得化妆。欧莱雅(L’Oréal)的一款应用——“千妆魔镜”(Makeup Genius)让用户不必把脸画得乱七八糟就可以尝试不同妆容。哪些人最热衷于使用这项突破性技术?中国人就是其中之一。This is not the only area where the Chinese shopper is leading. In 2013, China’s ecommerce market overtook that of the US, according to a PwC and EIU report, and more than half of China’s internet shoppers are now mobile. Yet overall retail growth has been slowing, and even ecommerce bellwether, US-listed Alibaba, is showing the strain. This week the company cut its top line outlook for the coming quarter, saying that the total value of goods sold will only grow in the mid-single digits.中国消费者领先的不仅仅是这个领域。根据普华永道(PwC)和经济学人智库(EIU)的一份报告,2013年,中国电商市场的规模超过了美国。目前,超过一半中国网购者使用移动端购物。然而,整体零售增长呈现放缓趋势,即使是电商行业的领头羊——在美国上市的阿里巴巴(Alibaba)——日子也不轻松。上周,该公司调低了即将结束的这个季度的业绩预期,称商品交易总额(GMV)将比最初的预期低5%左右。It is tempting to interpret Alibaba’s caution as a sign of broader malaise. It could, however, be that e-consumers’ tastes are simply changing. Chinese millennials, those born since the 1980s, are particularly influential in this regard — and this influence will grow. Those aged 16 to 35 make up nearly a third of China’s population. They outnumber the same cohort in the US by five times. Although they command less aggregate spending power than their US peers, Goldman Sachs estimates that over the next decade the income of this group will grow by tn.阿里巴巴的谨慎很容易被解读为一种更大范围内出现问题的征兆。然而,问题也可能只是网购者的口味在变化。上世纪80年代后出生的中国千禧一代在这方面格外有影响力——而且这种影响力还将继续上升。中国16岁到35岁的人占总人口的近三分之一,数量是美国同代人的5倍。尽管他们的总出能力不如美国的同龄人,但高盛(Goldman Sachs)预测,下一个十年中国这一群体的收入将增长3万亿美元。They are not buying the same items as their parents. More young Chinese choose experience and lifestyle expenditure over tangible status goods; travel and entertainment, for instance, are increasingly popular. Expenditure on “fun” is still less than a tenth of total outlay, compared with around a sixth in the US and Japan. This suggests that companies such as US-listed online travel companies Ctrip and Qunar and mall developer Dalian Wanda — which emphasises entertainment in its shopping centres — stand to benefit. L’Oréal should, too: on a night out, virtual make-up is no substitute for the real thing.他们和他们的父母买的东西不一样。中国年轻人更爱把钱花在体验和生活方式方面,而不是购买彰显地位的有形产品;比如,旅游和正变得越来越受欢迎。该人群在“乐趣”方面的开依然不到总开的十分之一,而在美国和日本,这个比例约为六分之一。这表明,在美国上市的在线旅游公司携程(Ctrip)、去哪儿(Qunar)以及在开发购物中心方面重视体验的开发商大连万达(Dalian Wanda)等公司,很可能会获益于这股潮流。欧莱雅也应该会获益:在外出的夜晚,虚拟化妆可没法替代真正的化妆。 /201509/398790The costs imposed by the financial crises that hit western economies in 2007 have been enormous. UK gross domestic product is nearly a fifth smaller than if long-term pre-crisis growth trends had continued. The costs also include huge rises in public debt. In the UK the increase, as a direct and indirect result of the crisis, will be close to 50 per cent of GDP.2007年重创西方经济的金融危机造成的代价是巨大的。目前英国国内生产总值(GDP)相比危机前的长期增长趋势线少了近五分之一。代价还包括公共债务的大幅攀升。在英国,危机直接和间接造成的公共债务增加相当于GDP的近一半。This is the fourth most costly fiscal event of the past 225 years, after the wars with post-revolutionary France and the first and second world wars. Mismanaged finance imposes fiscal costs that are not far short of world wars.这是过去225年来代价第四高昂的财政事件,仅次于法国大革命后的英法战争、一战和二战。金融管理不善造成的财政代价,并不比世界大战带来的损失少很多。This is the background against which to judge predictable complaints that the post-crisis regulatory regime is too onerous and will prevent banks supporting the economy as well as they did when creating the crisis. In the UK particularly strong complaints are directed at the plan to ringfence retail banking from other activities. They often come from people connected to banking. But they would complain, wouldn’t they?这就是评判一些可预见的抱怨的背景,这些抱怨称,后危机时代的监管制度负担过重,将阻止像危机之前那样出色地持经济。在英国,抱怨尤其强烈的是针对将零售业“圈护”(ringfence)起来、与其他活动隔离的计划。这些抱怨往往来自与业相关的人士。但这些人当然会抱怨,难道不是吗?Ringfencing retail banking was one of the proposals of the Independent Commission on Banking, established by the UK government in 2010 (I was a member). The commission’s terms of reference required it to make UK banks safer without undermining global competitiveness. The ICB’s package of proposals also included greater “loss absorbency” — more funding by equity and debt that is ily convertible into equity.对零售实施圈护是业独立委员会(Independent Commission on Banking,简称:ICB)提出的建议之一,该委员会由英国政府在2010年建立(我是其中的成员)。ICB的权限要求它在不影响英国全球竞争力的情况下使它们更安全。ICB的一揽子提案还包括更强的“亏损吸收能力”——更多股权筹资以及更多随时可转换为股权的债务。Martin Taylor, former Barclays chief executive, member of the ICB and now Bank of England Financial Policy Committee member, has powerfully elucidated the logic behind ringfencing. It had, he notes, three chief goals.巴克莱(Barclays)前首席执行官、ICB前成员、现在是英国央行(Bank of England)金融政策委员会成员的马丁#8226;泰勒(Martin Taylor),有力地阐明了实施圈护背后的逻辑。他指出,这样做有三个主要目标。First, it was designed to make resolution of a failing bank easier by allowing the authorities to pluck out the most critical parts of the business. Second, “As long as governments stood behind a bank’s domestic business#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;and as long as that domestic business was mixed in with the investment bank#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;then effectively the taxpayer had no choice but to stand behind the investment bank too.” The ringfence was designed to subvert this “irresponsible business model”.首先,它旨在通过允许当局挑出业务中最关键的部分,使破产的清盘更加容易。第二,“只要政府持一家的国内业务……只要该行的国内业务与投行业务混合在一起……那么纳税人实际上就别无选择,只能也持投行那一块。”圈护旨在颠覆这种“不负责任的业务模式”。Finally, removing the implicit subsidy would make banking as a whole safer. Given the consequences of pre-crisis risk-taking, that had to be desirable.最后,取消隐性补贴将使业整体更加安全。考虑到危机前冒险行为产生的后果,这一点必定是可取的。The ICB did not recommend full separation between retail and investment banking because it saw the advantages of diversified risks. But it was also aware that balance sheets of UK banks were five times GDP, far higher than in comparable countries. The UK had to limit its exposure. Critics make a number of objections. One is that there is no reason to suppose investment banking is riskier than retail banking. That is true. The ICB did not think otherwise. But retail banking is surely more indispensable.ICB并未建议将零售业和投行业完全分离,因为它看到了风险分散化的优势。但它也意识到,英国各的资产负债表总规模达到国内生产总值(GDP)的5倍,远高于其他可比国家。英国作为一个国家必须限制自己的敞口。批评者提出许多反对意见。其中之一是,没有理由假设投行业比零售业务风险更高。这话没错。ICB也这样认为。但零售业无疑是更加不可或缺的。Another gripe is that the ringfence makes British banks uncompetitive in global banking. But if other governments wish to subsidise investment banking, that is their choice; it is not an argument for the UK to do so, too.也有人抱怨称,圈护政策使英国的在全球业失去竞争力。但是,如果其他国家的政府希望补贴投行,那是他们的选择;这不是英国也要这样做的理由。Others say the ring#173;fence will force UK banks abroad. Reference is made to announcements that HS is reconsidering its UK domicile. HS might indeed wish to escape the costly (and hard to justify) levy on bank balance sheets introduced in 2011. But it cannot escape the ringfence by leaving since its UK retail bank must remain subject to UK law. Thus, the ringfence cannot be a justification for doing so.还有人说,圈护要求将迫使英国的迁往海外。他们提到汇丰(HS)宣布重新考虑总部选址。汇丰可能的确希望逃避2011年出台的针对资产负债表的高额(且很难明合理)征费。但它无法通过搬迁总部来逃避圈护,因为英国的零售仍必须遵守英国法律。因此,圈护不能成为这样做的理由。A more powerful argument is that the loss absorbency of banks is now such that the additional safety provided by ringfencing is redundant. One response is that the internationally agreed levels of loss absorbency is in line with the proposals of the ICB. The other is that banks remain highly leveraged. Last year the ratio of total assets to equity of UK banks was between 20 and 30 to one. It would take modest losses to wipe out these banks’ equity.更有力的论据是,如今的亏损吸收能力已经相当大,圈护所提供的额外安全度是冗余的。对此的回应之一是,国际间同意的亏损吸收能力水平与ICB的建议相符。另一个回应是,英国的仍保持着高杠杆率。去年,英国各总资产与股本的比率介于20至30比1之间。不需要发生太大的亏损,就会抹掉这些的股本。A further objection is that we are now able to resolve troubled banks easily by converting loss-absorbing debt into equity or even winding them up. Improvements have indeed been made. But the idea that these processes would work smoothly if a crisis again engulfed the system is unproven, if not optimistic. Ringfencing would at least give any future government more options.还有一个反对意见是,我们现在能够通过将吸收亏损的债务转化成股权,或者甚至对其清盘,很容易地清算陷入困境的。确实取得了一些进步。但是,那种认为如果危机再次席卷这一体系,这些过程将顺利运转的想法并未被实,如果还算不上过于乐观的话。圈护至少将给未来的政府更多选项。If anything is to be reconsidered it is not ringfencing but the UK’s bank levy, which is simply a heavy tax. I would have no objection to making the boundary of the ringfence more flexible for retail banks in return for higher equity capital. More broadly, if the capital of banks were greatly increased, the case for ringfencing would weaken. But that is not where we now are. So ignore the whingeing.如果有任何事需要被重新考虑的话,那不是圈护政策,而是英国的征费,它就是一项沉重的税种。我不反对让零售的圈护范围变得更加灵活,以换取更高的股权资本。更广义上说,如果的资本大大增加,圈护的理由将被削弱。但这不是我们现在面临的问题。所以,别在意这些抱怨。 /201507/383685昆明牙科医院钴铬烤瓷牙套费用是多少

昆明柏德口腔医院烤瓷牙好不好昆明医科大学第二附属医院冷光美白治疗多少钱On Monday, December 8, the newly-christened CSCL Globe left port in Shanghai en route to Europe on its maiden voyage. Capable of carrying 19,100 twenty-foot shipping containers—19,100 TEU, as they say in the industry—the Globe, constructed by Hyundai Heavy Industries and owned by the state-run China Shipping Company, is now the world’s largest container ship by volume. It is also among the largest ships in operation by raw size, at 400 meters long and 59 meters wide. If you cut the antenna tower off the Empire State Building, it would be 20 meters shorter than the Globe is long.12月8日周一,这艘全新的中海集运“环球号”离开上海港驶往欧洲,开始了它的首航。“环球号”可装载1.91万个20英尺标准集装箱(或业内所称的1.91万TEU),由韩国现代重工集团建造,隶属于中国海运集团总公司,是目前全球容量最大的集装箱船只,长400米,宽59米,单是其尺寸就已跻身目前世界最大的运营船舶之列。如果不计算纽约帝国大厦楼顶的天线塔,那么该船的长度比帝国大厦的高度还要多出20米。But the CSCL Globe is more than just a really, really big ship. Its massive size reflects equally massive changes that have reshaped the ocean shipping industry over the past decade as carriers build ever-bigger ships to capture economies of scale in fuel and crew costs. The capital-intensive strategy is squeezing out smaller players and triggering consolidation across an industry that has long resisted it, while putting new demands on global shipping infrastructure.但中海集运“环球号”绝不仅仅是一艘巨轮而已。其巨大的尺寸同样反映出过去十年间航运界发生的巨大变化。为了实现燃油和人工方面的规模效益,航运公司建造的船只越来越大,而这一变化重塑了整个行业。这种资本密集型战略正在把小竞争者挤出市场,也在促使此前长期抵触整合的航运界开始了全行业的整合,同时也对全球海运基础设施提出了新的要求。So-called megaships have come to dominate container shipping with astonishing rapidity over the past decade. The industry was bowled over in 2003 by the arrival of the then-massive OOCL Shenzhen—but its 8,063 TEU capacity is unremarkable by today’s standards.过去十年间,巨型船舶以令人惊叹的发展速度开始引领集装箱船运市场。2003年,深圳东方海外的巨型集装箱船曾经征了当时的市场,但以今天的标准来看,其8063标箱的容量已不足为奇。The shift to larger ships was pushed along by the global financial crisis and rising fuel costs. After rates for container shipping hit record highs in the 1990s and early 2000s, prices collapsed along with global trade in 2008 and 2009. Orders to shipbuilders around the world were cancelled in droves.全球金融危机和不断攀升的燃油价格也是船只尺寸变大的推手。集装箱船的运价在90年代至21世纪早期达到历史高点后,于2008至2009年间随着全球贸易的萎缩出现暴跌,各地造船厂的订单都被陆续取消。When orders picked up again, they were almost all for megaships. Hyundai Heavy Industries, for instance, reports that since 2010 it has built 82 ships of more than 10,000 TEU but has received orders for only five ships in the 5,000 TEU range.随后,虽然订单量再次回升,但几乎所有的订单都是巨型船舶。比如,韩国现代重工的报告表示,自2010年起它们已建造了82艘容量超过1万标箱的船只,但只有5笔容量为5000标箱的订单。These capital-intensive larger ships have, predictably, concentrated in the hands of the largest carriers. “To play with the big boys now, you have to be putting a huge amount of money out,” says Sam Chambers, editorial director of the trade journal SinoShip. According to a Drewry Maritime Research report from July 2014, MSC operates 696 ships above 10,000 TEU, Maersk operates 433, and CMA CGM Group has 363.可以预想,这些资本密集型的大船已经集中在规模最大的海运公司手中。行业刊物《中国船运》编辑主任萨姆o钱伯斯说:“要和大佬们玩,你就得花大价钱” 。德鲁里海事研究公司2014年7月的报告显示,地中海航运运营的船只当中容量超1万标箱的有696艘,马士基有433艘,达飞有363艘。The efficiencies of the larger ships are a boon for individual shippers, and for the global environment. They consume as little as 50% of the fuel per container moved as older ships, while also more than halving insurance and staffing costs. A megaship requires the same 20-odd crew as a smaller ship but can carry three times the cargo.大船效率的提高对于个体承运人和全球大环境来说都有益处。其单个集装箱运输所耗燃油仅为老船只的50%,保险和人工成本也降低了一半多。和较小的船只相比,一艘巨型船舶同样需要20多个船员,但运力却是小船的三倍。The effect on the industry as a whole is less sanguine. “In terms of supply and demand, the industry is blighted by what we describe as structural overcapacity,” says Simon Heaney, Drewry’s senior manager of supply chain research. Large carriers have mitigated that oversupply to a degree through a practice known as “slow-steaming”—intentionally operating ships at as little as half their normal speed, which both reins in capacity and offers further fuel savings.巨型船舶对整个行业的影响则没有那么乐观。德鲁里供应链研究高级经理赛门o希尼说:“供求方面,行业遭遇了我们所说的结构性产能过剩的冲击”。大的运输公司通过“减速航行”的方式来削弱过度供给造成的影响,即刻意地让船以正常航速的一半来航行,既控制运力,也进一步节省了燃油。With less access to efficiencies of scale or speed, smaller carriers are losing ground fast. Carriers outside of the global top 10 operate only dozens or, in some cases, zero megaships. Some have been forced into mergers, such as the acquisition of CSAV by Hapag-Lloyd in April. Further consolidation has taken the form of cargo-sharing agreements. By early 2015, the Asia-Europe container trade will be entirely controlled by just four major alliances.由于难以获得规模效益或在速度上做文章,小型运输公司的处境迅速恶化。全球排名前十之外的运输公司仅运营着几十艘巨型船,有些甚至连一艘都没有。其中的一些公司被迫投入他人的怀抱,比如4月份赫伯罗特就并购了南美轮船。此外,货运共享协议也是行业整合的另一种形式。到2015年初,仅四大海运联盟就可以完全控制亚欧集装箱业务。Infrastructure limitations have kept the largest of the megaships confined to those Asia-Europe routes. Ships the size of the CSCL Globe are too large to fit through the Panama Canal, and neither East nor West Coast U.S. ports are equipped to handle them anyway. The expansion of the Panama Canal to accommodate megaships is underway, and the Hong Kong-based investment group HKND is currently exploring the construction of a large canal across Nicaragua. But the megaships are having ripple effects around the world by pushing older, smaller ships out of service on Asia-Europe routes, inflating capacity and pushing down prices everywhere.由于基础设施的限制,巨型船舶中尺寸最大的都只能在亚欧航线上运营。像中海集运“环球号”这样尺寸的船已经无法通过巴拿马运河,而以目前的设施水平,美国东海岸和西海岸的港口也都无力接纳这样的船只。巴拿马运河扩容工程目前正在进行,投资集团香港尼加拉瓜运河开发投资有限公司也准备在尼加拉瓜开发建造一条运河。巨型船舶所产生的涟漪效应已波及世界各地,因为它迫使老船和小船退出亚欧航线的运营,并造成了运力的膨胀和运价的普降。Industry watchers say the CSCL Globe is unlikely to retain its world’s-biggest title for long. Sam Chambers of SinoShip expects to see a 20,000 TEU ship ordered by early 2015, and ships of up to 24,000 TEU would be viable with current Asia-Europe infrastructure. That would mean continued chronic overcapacity, and even more pressure on smaller shippers worldwide.行业观察者说,中海集运“环球号”世界第一的称号可能不会长久。《中国海运》杂志的萨姆o钱伯斯预计,2015年初可能会出现2万标箱的船只订单,以目前亚欧航线基础设施情况来看,未来制造2.4万标箱的船只也是可行的。而这意味着,产能过剩的局面将会长时间持续,同时也会为全球的小型运输公司带来更大的压力。(财富中文网) /201502/359905I am starting to think marketers and astrologers have more in common than meets the eye. We are both asked to stargaze and look into the future on a regular basis. Every year around this time, I see similar emails from clients and reporters alike, all wanting to know what 2014 holds in store. Luckily, I don’t need the stars to predict what comes next because technology always leaves telltale signs. Here are the Top 5 Digital Trends you can look forward to for 2014.我开始思考这样一个问题:营销人员和占星家之间的共同点比表面上看起来的要多。这两种人都会要求我们经常性地凝望星空、望向未来。每年的这个时候,我都会收到客户和记者发来的类似邮件,他们都想知道2014年会发生些什么。幸运的是,我并不需要夜观星象来预测接下来会发生的事,因为科技总是会留下一些明显的迹象。以下便是2014年你将可能发现的五大数字趋势。1) An Identity Based Eco-System. As a graduate student at the University of Texas at Austin, I did my thesis on Twitter. (No, it wasn’t in 140 characters.) One of the pivotal questions of my thesis was this: Why do people use social networking sites at all? My incorrect hypothesis was that people wanted to connect to each other. My research revealed that this was only the secondary reason. The primary reason was to showcase their own identity. I’ll pause while you give a moment’s thought to the narcissism of society. Then, I’ll urge you to think deeper. We, as humans, have always had an innate need to express ourselves. By that very expression, we further our identity. Smart companies, such as Facebook (with their timeline feature) and Amazon (with their personalized recommendations) are aly taking advantage of what I refer to as an Identity Based Eco-System. The digital world of tomorrow, be it consumer or business, will revolve around the individual identity. The companies who want to take advantageof this trend will proactively create ways to harness the idea that showcasing our identity is the most human and primary of desires.1)基于身份的生态系统。在我还是得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校研究生的时候,我的论文主题是Twitter(不,这篇论文并非只有140个字)。我论文中讨论的一个重要问题是:为什么人们会使用社交网站?我不甚正确的假设是,人们想要彼此进行联系。但我所做的调研发现,这仅仅是第二重要的原因。第一重要的原因是展示自己的身份。我会在这里顿一顿,给你点时间思考下这个社会的自恋情结。然后,我会敦促你更深入地思考。作为人类的我们总有一种天生的表达自己的需求。通过这种表达,我们进一步深化了自己的身份。聪明的公司,如Facebook(以及他们的时间轴功能)和亚马逊(以及他们的个性化推荐功能)已经在着手利用我所说的这种“基于身份的生态系统”。明天的数字世界,无论是消费者的还是企业的,都将围绕着个人身份展开活动。想要利用这一趋势的公司将会积极主动地创造各种方法,来利用这一观点:展示我们的身份是最最普遍也是最最基础的欲望。2) Content Curation and Aggregation. Remember the movie You’ve Got Mail, with Meg Ryan and Tom Hanks? It was a blockbuster hit and romantic comedy at its best. But, they can never create a remake of that movie. Why? Because no one is that excited to receive email anymore! We have gone from an information hungry to an information overloaded society. However, we still require information on a daily basis – now more than ever. Hence, we see the rise of websites such as Pinterest, Quora, and List.ly. Pinterest is technically nothing more than an organization system for images which aly exist, but because we desperately need that system for aggregation, it is a success.2) 内容管理和聚合。还记得梅格?瑞恩(Meg Ryan)和汤姆?汉克斯(Tom Hanks)主演的电影《电邮情缘》(You’ve Got Mail)吗?这是一部票房大片,也是浪漫喜剧的巅峰之作。然而,现在再也不可能重拍该片了。为什么?因为没人会为收到邮件而激动不已了!我们早已经从信息饥渴社会过渡到了信息过量社会。然而,我们仍然每天都需要信息——比以往任何时候都要多。因此,我们看到了诸如Pinterest、Quora和List.ly等网站的兴起。Pinterest从技术上来说不过是将早已存在的图像组织起来而已,但是由于我们非常需要这种聚合系统,它获得了巨大成功。3) Video Device Agnostic. When was the last time you uttered the phrase “I am watching on television.” Chances are you may watch a on TV, but you may just as easily be watching it on your tablet or smart phone. Video continues to become device agnostic. (Much to my chagrin, my husband takes advantage of this fact by pausing the episode on TV only to continue it on his tablet at the restaurant. I’ll save the net etiquette for spouses article for later.) From a business standpoint, online will continue to play a bigger role in the digital space.3) 视频设备不可知。你上一次说“我在电视上看视频”是什么时候?更可能的是,你会在电视上看视频,但你也可以很方便地在平板电脑或智能手机上看视屏。视频持续着其设备不可知的特性。(令我懊恼的是,我丈夫利用了这一事实,他会给电视上播放的剧集按下暂停键,为的是稍后在餐厅用平板电脑接着看。有关夫妇间网络礼仪的事宜,我稍后另外撰文详述吧。)从商业角度来说,在线视频将继续在数字世界中扮演更为重要的角色。4) The 4 Screen Revolution. The last Super Bowl showcased this trend better than any other event. While people watched the game on TV, they were checking their work email on the computer for the next day, tweeting about the game on their tablet, and texting their friends at the same time. The number of screens we are used to will only increase with time. When I say screen, I don’t necessarily mean a solid box. Google glass would also qualify as a screen. Any surface (tangible or not) which you interact with can be considered a screen. Look for advertising to innovate as the available surfaces, on which to interact, increase.4)四屏革命。最近一次的超级碗比其他任何活动都要更好地表明了这一趋势。当人们在电视上观看比赛时,他们同时还在电脑上查看第二天的工作邮件、用平板电脑发与比赛相关的推文,同时还在给朋友发短信。我们所能习惯的屏幕数量只会随着时间的推移而增加。我所说的“屏幕”并不一定就是指实实在在的方盒子。谷歌眼镜也能算是一块屏幕。你能与之进行互动的任何表面(有形的或是无形的)都可以视作是屏幕。随着各种可进行互动的表面种类的增加,期待广告界推出各种创新吧!5) Social Literacy Skills Required. Social media literacy will be required by companies for most jobs, but especially for the C-Suite. It expands beyond understanding social platforms to making the digital landscape an inherent part of your professional repertoire. As a skill set, social media literacy will be divided into two areas – personal and organizational. On the personal level, professionals will have to know how to create content, curate relevant information, and connect people and resources. On an organizational level, agility (in thought and strategy), the ability to aggregate multiple points of data for decision making, and authenticity (the real deal, not the perception) will be required.5)社交网络能力是必备。公司的大部分招聘职位将要求应聘者拥有社交媒体能力,对高管职位来说尤其如此。这一能力不仅仅是要能理解社交平台,以使数字能力成为你职业素养中一个固有的部分。社交媒体能力作为一整套技能,将被划分成两个层面——个人及组织。在个人层面上,专业人士必须要知道如何创建内容、管理相关信息,并将人和资源联系在一起。在组织层面上,则要求有灵活性(在思维和战略上)——整合各方数据以用于决策制定的能力——和真实性(实实在在的交易,而不是想法)。As I gaze into my digital crystal ball, one thing is certain. 2014 is sure to be an exciting year on the digital front.当我凝视着我的数字水晶球时,有一件事是肯定的。2014年必将成为数字前沿令人激动的一年。 /201311/266013昆明伯德口腔美容医院看牙齿不齐牙齿美白多少钱昆明口腔门诊排名

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