明星资讯腾讯娱乐2019年08月18日 11:48:37
5 Things to Know About Theresa May, Britain’s Next Prime Minister关于特丽莎·梅,你应该知道的5件事Theresa May, the new Conservative Party leader, will become Britain’s second female prime minister on Wednesday, entering 10 Downing Street three weeks after Britain voted to leave the European Union.新任保守党党魁特丽莎#8231;梅 (Theresa May) 本周三成为英国第二位女首相,在退欧公投三周后入主唐宁街10号官邸。A shrewd politician who was described favorably by a colleague as a “bloody difficult woman,” Ms. May, 59, takes power at a tumultuous moment in her country’s history.今年59岁的梅是一位精明的政治人物,曾有同僚善意地揶揄说她是个“超级难搞的女人”。 她将在她的国家历史上动荡不安的一刻执掌大权。Here are five things you need to know about her.这里有5件你要知道的特丽莎#8231;梅大小事:She has been a long-serving home secretary她曾长期担任英国内政大臣Ms. May has served longer in the difficult cabinet post of home secretary, overseeing the nation’s domestic security and immigration agencies, than any since the 19th century. She has held the post since 2010, 13 years after she was first elected to Parliament.梅曾在英国内阁担任挑战重重的内政大臣一职,负责国内安全与移民事务,在位时间之长,自19世纪以来无人能出其右。 她在首次获选为国会议员的13年后,于2010年就任内政大臣。She is considered a moderate in the Conservative Party and has been compared to Angela Merkel, the chancellor of Germany; both are known for their pragmatism. As home secretary, Ms. May was criticized for failing to meet a Conservative pledge to sharply reduce the net number of immigrants to Britain.梅被视为保守党内的温和派,有人拿她与德国总理安格拉#8231;默克尔 (Angela Merkel) 相较;两人都以务实作风闻名。 担任内政大臣时,梅因为未能实现保守党大幅削减英国外来移民净人数的承诺而遭到批评。She has promised to lead Britain out of the European Union她已承诺领导英国度过退欧阶段Though Ms. May supported Prime Minister David Cameron’s stance in favor of remaining in the European Union, she said little publicly during the referendum campaign, leading to some speculation that she privately favored leaving, known as Brexit. That ambiguity helped her to emerge as a compromise candidate who might promise to unify the party’s factions.虽然梅持前首相卡梅伦的留欧立场,但在公投活动期间她很少就此公开发言,致使有人推测她私下倾向退欧,也就是所谓的“Brexit”。 这种模糊性协助她以立场折衷的候选人身分脱颖而出,因为这样的人选有望整合党内派系。She has ruled out holding a second referendum, saying that the people have spoken and that “Brexit means Brexit.” Still, she is not in a hurry: She said she would not invoke the legal mechanism that begins the withdrawal process until later in the year.她排除了举办第二次公投的可能性,表示人民已言明心声,“退欧就是退欧”。 然而,梅并不急着行动:她表示自己要到今年稍晚时才会启动退欧的法律机制。She wants to give workers a seat on corporate boards她想让劳动阶级在管理层占有一席之地Ms. May has said that people want more than just a “Brexit P.M.,” and has pledged “a bold new positive vision for the future of our country, a country that works not for a privileged few but for every one of us.” She has promised to address inequality, give workers greater representation on corporate boards and limit tax cuts.梅曾说,人民要的不只是一个“退欧首相”,并誓言要“给我国的未来一个大胆、全新、积极的远景;一个不只为享有特权的少数人务,而是为我们每个人务的国家”。 她承诺要着手解决贫富不均,赋予劳动阶级在管理层更大的代表权,并对减税加以限制。She was introduced to her husband by Benazir Bhutto巴基斯坦前总理贝娜齐尔·布托是梅氏夫妇的红娘Like Britain’s first female prime minister, Margaret Thatcher, Ms. May was born into a middle-class family. She was educated at Oxford, where she belonged to the Conservative Association and the Oxford Union, a debating society known for producing future leaders.和英国第一位女首相玛格丽特#8231;撒切尔一样,梅也出身自中产家庭。她在牛津大学读书,在那里加入了保守党协会(Conservative Association)以及牛津大学辩论社(Oxford Union),后者以作为领导人物的摇篮而闻名。At a Conservative Association dance in 1976, she was introduced to Philip May, her future husband, by Benazir Bhutto, a fellow student who would go on to become the first female prime minister of Pakistan.1976年,在保守党协会的一场舞会上,贝娜齐尔#8231;布托(Benazir Bhutto)介绍梅与她未来的丈夫菲利浦#8231;梅(Philip May)认识。布托也是牛津的学生,后来成为巴基斯坦第一位女总理。She is an avid cookbook collector她热衷收集食谱To relax, Ms. May has said she enjoys cooking (she owns more than 100 cookbooks) and taking long walks in the countryside.梅曾说,为了纾压,她很喜欢下厨 (她拥有超过百本食谱) ,也会在乡间长距离散步。She is known for her eclectic footwear, and often wears leopard-print shoes.她不拘一格的穿鞋品味十分出名,常足蹬豹纹鞋款。 /201607/454549Volkswagen’s legal troubles deepened yesterday as the US government filed a lawsuit against it over the emissions test-rigging scandal that threatens to cost the embattled carmaker tens of billions of dollars.大众(Volkswagen)昨日进一步深陷法律纠纷。美国政府针对其排放测试作弊丑闻提起法律诉讼,可能使这家陷入困境的汽车制造商面临数百亿美元的罚款。The complaint leaves the German carmaker facing potential fines of up to ,500 per vehicle for violations before January 2009 and ,500 per vehicle for later violations.这家德国汽车制造商可能要为2009年1月以前出厂的每辆违规汽车付高达32500美元的罚款,为之后出厂的每辆违规车辆付37500美元的罚款。The civil lawsuit was filed by the US justice department on behalf of the Environmental Protection Agency, which exposed VW’s alleged wrong last September.这起民事诉讼是由美国司法部(US Justice Department)代表去年9月曝光大众涉嫌不当行为的美国国家环境保护局(EPA)提起的。The complaint alleges the group fitted nearly 600,000 VWs, Audis and Porsches with diesel engines that contained illegal “defeat devices” and caused emissions to exceed EPA standards.诉状声称,大众为近60万辆大众、奥迪(Audi)和保时捷(Porsche)车辆安装了包含非法“减效装置”的柴油发动机,使这些车辆的排放超出美国国家环保局的标准。John Cruden, head of the justice department’s environment and natural resources division, said: “The ed States will pursue all appropriate remedies against Volkswagen to redress the violations of our nation’s clean air laws.”美国司法部环境和自然资源司负责人约翰克鲁登(John Cruden)表示:“美国将寻求对大众采取所有适当的法律补救手段,纠正违反我国清洁空气法的行为。”The complaint also says the carmaker broke the law by importing and selling vehicles with designs that differed from the data given to regulators.诉状还表示,大众还进口和销售在设计上与提交给监管机构的数据有出入的车辆,这也违反了法律。VW has so far set aside 6.7bn to deal with the projected cost of resolving the problems with the nitrogen oxide emissions controls.大众迄今已拨出67亿欧元,应对解决氮氧化物排放控制问题预计所需的成本。Cynthia Giles, assistant administrator for enforcement and compliance assurance at the EPA, said: “With today’s filing, we take an important step to protect public health by seeking to hold Volkswagen accountable for any unlawful air pollution, setting us on a path to resolution.”美国国家环保局主管执法和合规保的助理局长辛西娅贾尔斯(Cynthia Giles)表示:“通过提起诉讼,我们迈出了重要的一步,寻求让大众为任何非法污染空气的行为负起责任,以求保护公众的健康,籍此走上解决问题的道路。”She also revealed the EPA and VW have yet to resolve differences over how to handle vehicles currently on the road that are fitted with the devices.她还透露,有关如何处理已经上路的安装了作弊装置的车辆,美国国家环保局和大众还未能解决分歧。“So far, recall discussions with the company have not produced an acceptable way forward. These discussions will continue in parallel with the federal court action,” she said.她表示:“到目前为止,和该公司进行的召回讨论还未能取得可接受的进展。这些讨论将继续与联邦法院的行动同时进行。”The justice department’s action is the latest in a series of legal steps taken by US authorities against VW since Sept 18, when the EPA first it had discovered a “defeat device” to cheat emissions tests in 482,000 VW and Audi vehicles with two-litre diesel engines sold in the US since 2008.美国司法部的这一举措是去年9月18日以后美国当局采取的一系列法律措施中的最新行动。当时美国国家环保局首次宣布,发现2008年后大众在美国销售的48.2万辆2L排量柴油发动机的大众和奥迪汽车安装了欺骗排放测试的“减效装置”。VW said it would “continue to work closely with the US authorities”.大众表示将“继续和美国有关部门密切合作”。 /201601/421318

Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia’s influential former premier, said on Monday he is quitting the ruling party in protest at alleged “corruption” under the leadership of Najib Razak. 马来西亚颇有影响力的前总理马哈蒂尔#8226;穆罕默德(Mahathir Mohamad)周一表示,他将退出执政党,以抗议现任总理纳吉布#8226;拉扎克(Najib Razak)领导下涉嫌存在的“腐败行为”。 Mr Mahathir’s decision after months of bitter public campaigning against his successor is a symptom of the mounting pressure on Mr Najib, who has been embroiled in scandal over payments of almost 0m to his personal bank account. 纳吉布卷入了一起丑闻,起因是有人向他的个人账户转入近7亿美元。马哈蒂尔的这一决定凸显出纳吉布承受的越来越大的压力。 Mr Najib’s supporters regard the development as evidence of the premier’s strength in the ed Malays National Organisation. Both the party and government have made strenuous efforts to contain the affair in recent days. 纳吉布的持者将这一事态视作纳吉布在马来民族统一机构(ed Malays National Organisation,简称“巫统”)内强大影响力的明。马来西亚执政党和政府近来作出了不懈的努力,来遏制这起丑闻发酵。 Mr Mahathir, who led Malaysia for 22 years, has become the arch critic of his successor, who denies allegations of corruption linked to the 1MDB state investment fund. 曾领导马来西亚22年的马哈蒂尔,现已成为其继任者纳吉布的主要批评者。纳吉布否认了与国家投资基金1MDB有关的腐败指控。 Mr Mahathir said he was ashamed to be associated with Umno, which has dominated national politics for decades. He would now take his fight against Mr Najib outside the party, seeking to rally the prime minister’s opponents under a single banner. 马哈蒂尔表示,自己耻于与巫统为伍。巫统已主导马来西亚国家政治数十年。马哈蒂尔将在党外继续反对纳吉布,并力求将纳吉布的反对者团结到一个阵营中。 “I feel embarrassed that I am associated with a party that is seen as supporting corruption,” he said. “It had caused me to feel ashamed.” 马哈蒂尔说:“与这样一个被认为是持腐败的政党为伍,令我感到难堪。这事让我感到羞愧。” Critics of Mr Mahathir say his own period of rule was notable for political patronage and cronyism. 马哈蒂尔的批评者则表示,马哈蒂尔自己执政的那段时期以政治包庇和任人唯亲著称。 /201603/429581

  Australia moved to block the Abn-plus (.47bn) sale of a controlling stake in the country’s biggest electricity distribution network to two Chinese companies on national security grounds.澳大利亚出于国家安全考虑,决定阻止一笔逾100亿澳元(合74.7亿美元)的、将该国最大电网企业的控股权出售给两家中国企业的交易。The preliminary decision reflects public and political unease over the scale of Chinese investment in critical infrastructure and farm land in Australia — echoed around the globe — that has intensified following the recent election.这一初步决定反映出,在不久前的选举过后,澳民众和政界对中国企业投资澳关键基础设施和农地的规模之大感到不安。中国投资在世界其他地方也引发了这种不安。“In particular, during the review process national security issues were identified in critical power and communications services that Ausgrid provides to businesses and governments,” Scott Morrison, Australia’s treasurer, said on Thursday.澳大利亚财长斯科特#8226;莫里森(Scott Morrison)周四表示:“要特别指出的是,在审查过程中,(当局)认定Ausgrid向企业和政府提供的关键电力与通信务中存在国家安全问题。”“I am, of course, open to consider what the bidders put to me, but at this stage no suitable mitigations have been identified that would, for the proposed transaction structure, appropriately address the identified risks,” he added.他接着说:“当然,我愿意考虑竞标者提交给我的东西,但在现阶段,从提议的交易结构来看,没有看出有哪些合适的措施可妥善化解我们认定的那些风险、缓解我们的担忧。”Mr Morrison insisted to reporters that the government remained positively disposed to foreign investment despite the decision to block the transaction. The stake is being offered by the state government under a 99-year lease莫里森对记者们坚称,尽管决定阻止这笔交易,但澳政府仍对外国投资持欢迎态度。在这笔交易中,州政府是以租让99年的形式出售这些股权的。State Grid Corporation, which is owned by the Chinese government, and Hong Kong-based Cheung Kong Infrastructure, which is backed by tycoon Li ka-shing, have each submitted bids of more than Abn (.47bn) for a 50.4 per cent stake in the New South Wales electricity group Ausgrid. No local bidders took part in a privatisation process that has been thrown into disarray by the decision.国有的中国国家电网公司(State Grid Corporation,简称:国家电网)以及香港大亨李嘉诚(Li ka-shing)控制的长江基建(Cheung Kong Infrastructure),都提交了以逾100亿澳元收购新南威尔士州电力集团Ausgrid 50.4%股权的报价。并无澳本土企业参与这笔已被政府上述决定打乱的私有化交易。In a statement responding to the decision, CKI said: “We believe that the Australian Government must have reasons beyond the obvious which led them to make today’s announcement. The issue is unrelated to CKI.”长江基建在一份回应澳方决定的声明中称:“集团相信澳洲政府今日之公布背后实有难言之隐。个中原因与长江基建无关。”Chinese investment in the US, Europe and Australia has hit record levels, underlining Beijing’s growing importance as a driver of global growth and source of inward investment. But it is prompting scrutiny from regulators, including in Australia where Scott Morrison, treasurer, recently blocked the sale of the vast S Kidman amp; Co cattle farm to a Chinese group.中国在美国、欧洲和澳大利亚的投资已达到创纪录水平,突显出中国作为全球增长驱动力以及外来投资源头的重要性日益上升。但这正引发各国监管机构的密切关注,包括澳大利亚。澳财长莫里森近期还阻止了将大型养牛场基德曼公司(S Kidman amp; Co)出售给一家中资集团的交易。The proposed sale of Ausgrid has drawn sharp criticism from independent politicians, a bigger voice in parliament following July’s knife-edge election that gave the government a single-seat majority. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party and the Nick Xenophon Team, which control seven seats in the Senate, have both publicly opposed the sale of Ausgrid to foreign buyers.Ausgrid这笔拟议中的售股交易还招致独立议员的尖锐批评。由于现政府在7月极其激烈的大选中仅获得超半数1个席位的多数,这些独立议员在议会中拥有了更大的话语权。波琳#8226;汉森(Pauline Hanson)的单一民族党(One Nation party)和谢诺峰团队党(Nick Xenophon Team)都公开反对将Ausgrid出售给外国买家。这两党在参议院合计控制7个席位。“This decision may herald the start of the coalition’s rollback on openness to foreign investment and free trade due to the new political realities in parliament,” said Duncan McDonnell, politics lecturer at Griffith University.格里菲斯大学(Griffith University)政治学讲师邓肯#8226;麦克唐奈(Duncan McDonnell)说:“这一决定或许预示着,鉴于议会的新政治现实,联合政府在向外资开放及自由贸易方面开始出现后退。”The New South Wales government said it was confident another buyer could be found in time for the next state budget to record the proceeds of the transaction. But given the lack of local bidders, the sale process is likely to be delayed and raise less cash.新南威尔士州政府表示,有信心及时找到另一个买家,以便下个州预算案中能录入这笔交易的所得。但由于缺少本土竞标者,出售过程很可能延迟,筹到的现金也不会有那么多。Australia’s business lobby and some politicians are becoming increasingly concerned that foreign investment has become a political football, which risks damaging the economy.澳大利亚商业游说团体及一些政治人士越来越担心,外国投资已变成一个“政治皮球”,那样的话可能会给该国经济造成伤害。 /201608/460455


  Mobile phone users in China expected a pleasant surprise this month. Starting from October 1, a new policy adopted by the three giant cellphone operators - China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom - has allowed unused data from individual data packages to be carried over to the next month for use.中国手机用户在本月迎来了惊喜。从11月1号起,三大通信运营商——中国移动,中国电信和中国联通,采取了一项新的政策:当月个人数据包中未使用完的流量可以延长到下月使用。At the beginning, users of the three telecommunication companies hailed this policy, since they would have more free data to use in the next month and Chinese phone users#39; zealousness for mobile Internet is unrelenting.一开始,三大运营商的用户们对该政策的出台都很开心,因为他们从下月起就有更多的免费流量可以使用了,而现在的中国手机用户对于手机上网的需求是非常热忱的。However, even before Chinese users could enjoy the free extra package, inquisitive users found that since the adoption of the policy, the original data limits seem to be far more easily swallowed up, which means there wouldn#39;t be any unused data left for the next month. One user of China Unicom claimed that it took him only nine days to use up the data package of a month.然而,在用户们还未能享受到延长使用期限的流量包时,好奇的用户们就发现该政策公布后,原有的流量限额很容易就达到了,这意味着到了月底根本不会有剩余流量。一位中国联通用户宣称,他9天内就用完了一个月的流量包。Telecoms have become as essential a utility in modern life as water or power, and raising or lowering costs significantly affects people#39;s lives and finances. But disputes between consumers and service providers dominate discussion.移动通信已经成为现代生活中的重要物品,就像水和电一样不可或缺,通信成本的高低极大地影响了人们的生活和财政状况。但是消费者和务商之间的争执久居不下。Not long after mobile phones became popular in China about a decade ago, the country#39;s mobile operators were blamed for their tight grip over telecoms fees. Regulators allowed cellular operators to charge both callers and receivers, and it took years for them to switch to a one-way charging scheme, among a slew of initiatives. During the process, public complaints played a major role.十年前,手机在中国普及后不久,我国的移动运营商就因对通信费的严格控制而饱受诟病。过去,监管机构允许蜂窝运营商同时向来电者和接听者收费,采取一系列举措切换到单向收费机制则花了数年时间。在这一过程中,公众的抗议声起到了重要作用。It is too early to judge how long the disputes between telecommunication companies and consumers over data packages will last, since, according to media reports, the measurement of data usage is difficult to track. Companies are using ;user privacy; to avoid giving out any information.消费者和运营商之间关于数据包的战争还将持续多久还不可得知,据媒体报道,跟踪数据的使用情况是非常困难的。运营商以“用户隐私”为由拒绝给出任何信息。But ing through the complaints posted online by picky cellphone users, we can sense the public#39;s distrust of State-owned enterprises (SOEs).但通过阅读网络上讲究的手机用户的意见,我们能感受到公众对于国营企业的不信任。A survey done by the People#39;s Tribune Research Center in 2012 found that the public#39;s negative impression of SOEs came from the belief that they only rely on government support and their employees usually do easy jobs but get higher pay, yet their efficiency and sense of service lag far behind private and foreign enterprises.人民论坛研究中心在2012年做过一份调查,公众对于国营企业的负面印象来自于他们认为,这些企业仅仅只依靠政府的持经营,员工大多数做着简单的工作却拿高工资,但他们的务意识和工作效率却远远落后于私营企业和外企。Besides, they feel that the costs of daily life such as water, electricity and petrol are always on the rise and attribute this to the monopoly of SOEs. Even if SOEs do something positive, it doesn#39;t help much win back public#39;s trust.另外,他们把生活必需品的成本,诸如水,电和汽油的持续上涨,都归咎于国企的垄断。即使是国企做了一些有积极意义的事,也不能重赢民心。The current spat over the data package of the three State-owned telecommunication giants reflects the extent of public dissatisfaction. Amid the country#39;s thriving anti-corruption campaign and reforms, it shows the public#39;s enthusiasms for deepening reforms and making SOEs benefit domestic consumers.目前对三大运营商的数据包之争反映了公众不满的程度,在国家反腐倡廉的蓬勃发展和改革的环境下,它显示了公众对于深化改革,使国有企业有利于国内消费者的热情。 /201511/407545

  WikiLeaks released 29 audio recordings Wednesday that it said were taken from Democratic National Committee servers.维基解密星期三公布了据它所称从民主党全国委员会的务器上获取的29条录音。The voicemails, apparently copied from email accounts of seven DNC members, included party associates upset by Bernie Sanders#39; influence on the Democratic Party.这些语音邮件显然是从七位民主党全国委员会成员的电邮账号中拷贝下来的,其中有些同僚对桑德斯在民主党中的影响感到不满。Reports say one caller did not want the Vermont senator to speak at the Democratic National Convention and was against Sanders#39; choices for the party#39;s 2016 platform.报道称,一位留言者不希望这位来自佛蒙特州的联邦参议员在民主党全国代表大会上发言,并且反对桑德斯提出的该党2016年竞选纲领。The latest release is the second in the last few days. The release of 20,000 emails just before the opening of the Democratic convention prompted the organization#39;s chairwoman, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, to step down.这是维基解密在过去几天里第二次公布泄露的文件。第一次恰好在民主党全国代表大会开幕之前,维基解密公布的2万份邮件,导致民主党全国代表发挥主席黛比·舒尔茨辞职。WikiLeaks, a group that publishes original documents from anonymous sources and leakers, released the data without indicating its source. The emails were sent during a 17-month period between January 2015 and May of this year. The DNC announced in June that its systems had been hacked.维基解密是一个公布匿名消息人士和泄密者提供的原始文件的组织,它在公布这些文件时没有说明其消息来源。这些邮件是2015年1月到今年5月这17个月之间发送的。民主党全国代表大会6月时宣布,它的系统被黑客入侵。Democratic officials said at that time that hackers based in Russia were responsible for the intrusion.民主党官员当时说,俄罗斯的黑客对这一入侵负责。The party organization has not commented on the emails released by WikiLeaks, but neither has it disputed their authenticity.民主党全国代表大会没有就维基解密公布的电邮发表,但也没有质疑其真实性。The manager of Sanders#39; political campaign, Jeff Weaver, said the emails confirmed ;what many of us have known for some time,; that DNC members were ;actively helping the Clinton effort and trying to hurt Bernie Sanders#39; campaign.#39;#39;桑德斯竞选团队经理维弗尔说,电邮实了“我们很多人已经知道一段时间的事情”,那就是,民主党全国委员会成员“积极地为克林顿助选,并试图损害桑德斯的竞选。” /201608/457592Beijing will open its first subway line with self-driving trains this year, local authorities said last Friday.据当地有关部门上周五透露,北京年内将开通第一条无人驾驶地铁。The facility is the first fully domestically developed automated subway line on the Chinese mainland, said a spokesperson with the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.据北京市住房和城乡建设委员会一名发言人表示,这将是中国大陆第一条完全国产的自动化地铁线路。The 16.6-km Yanfang Line, which is being debugged, will improve convenience of transportation for residents living in the city#39;s southwestern suburb of Fangshan, the spokesperson said.据该发言人表示,这条全长16.6千米的燕房线地铁目前正在调试中,将改善北京西南部房山区居民的交通便利。In addition, construction is expected to be completed in 2017 on two new rail lines, the city#39;s first modern tram line and first medium-low speed maglev line.此外,预计2017年还将完成另外两条铁路的建设--分别是北京第一条现代有轨电车线路和第一条中低速磁悬浮列车线路。Currently Beijing has 19 lines covering 574 kilometers in operation. Twenty subway lines or sections, spanning over 350 kilometers, will be built this year.目前北京地铁共有19条线路,运行公里数为574公里。此外,今年还将开建20条地铁线路,全长超过350公里。 /201704/501722

  The 1970s is achingly cool once again. In the world of fashion, Saint Laurent and Gucci are riding the crest of the 70s-inspired look.上世纪70年代的流行风格再度成为时尚宠儿,圣罗兰(Saint Laurent)与古驰(Gucci)是这股复古之风的引领者。And the world of jewellery is cashing in on the trend for nostalgia, albeit nostalgia only a few decades old.尽管只是怀旧几十年前的流行时尚,但珠宝首饰界却乘势利用这股复古之风大获其利。In 2007, Daphne Lingon, senior vice-president of jewellery at Christie’s New York, identified what would be the next big thing in the market. She won a surprisingly hard-fought bidding battle for a pair of 1970s David Webb gold and white enamel ear pendants for an unidentified high-profile client for the world of fashion.早在2007年,纽约佳士得(Christie)首饰拍卖部副总裁达芙妮霠Ⅷ(Daphne Lingon)就已经对未来的珠宝潮流未卜先知。她曾代表一位未透露姓名的时尚名流,在一场惊心动魄的竞标大战中,出人意料地拍到了大卫韦伯(David Webb)上世纪70年代用黄金与白珐琅打造的一对耳坠。Today, her instinct has proved accurate as the market for 1970s jewellery flourishes. Yet despite this, according to Ms Lingon: “We don’t have enough [1970s] pieces for demand.”今天,随着上世纪70年代的首饰行情火爆,明她当初的直觉完全正确。然而尽管如此,林贡说:“我们目前的‘存货’供不应求。”Prices are climbing, more pieces are on the market and estimates are being smashed. A simple Bulgari gold chain necklace went for ,000 — five times its estimate — at a sale in April held at Sotheby’s New York.这些上世纪70年代的首饰售价正不断攀升,而更多类似物件正源源不断进入交易市场,先前的预估价不断被刷新。在今年四月举行的纽约苏富比(Sotheby)拍卖会上,一件造型简单的宝格丽金项链最终以2.5万美元成交——比预估价足足高出了4倍。Frank Everett, sales director of jewellery at Sotheby’s New York, says: “People collecting jewellery in the 1970s are now in their 80s and 90s and are selling now. And there are more estates with 1970s pieces.”纽约苏富比首饰拍卖主管弗兰克埃弗雷特(Frank Everett)说:“上世纪70年代首饰的那些收藏者如今已届耄耋之年,他们开始出手这些藏品;更多人家里还收藏有上世纪70年代的物件。”He cites two big private collections in the company’s forthcoming December sale as an example, including an 18-carat gold and carved jade David Webb necklace with detachable pendant estimated at ,000-0,000.他以纽约苏富比12月拍卖会上竞拍的两件私人收藏的精品为例加以说明,其中之一就是由大卫韦伯打造的一款镶嵌18克拉黄金与玉雕件、搭配可卸式挂件的项链,预估价为8-10万美元。Fashion has shown jewellery the way. Hedi Slimane, creative director of Saint Laurent (which made its name in the 1970s) has doubled the brand’s sales revenue from 353m in 2011 to 707m in 2014, thanks to his sellout 1970s rock ’n’ roll collections.时尚界已为珠宝首饰指明了未来发展方向。正是由于圣罗兰(上世纪70年代创建品牌)创意总监艾迪斯理曼(Hedi Slimane)设计的上世纪70年代摇滚风格的首饰系列一款难求,公司销售额从2011年的3.53亿欧元飚升至2014年的7.07亿欧元。And now there is Gucci’s new creative director, Alessandro Michele, who has overhauled the company — and influenced the industry — with his heavily 1970s-inspired debut collections, which have helped reinvigorate the brand. In July, Gucci announced a 4.6 per cent jump in second-quarter sales, after a 7.9 per cent drop in first-quarter sales.另一紧跟这股潮流的代表人物是古驰新任创意总监亚历桑德罗猠歇尔(Alessandro Michele),他让古驰风格发生了脱胎换骨的变化,正是他深受上世纪70年代时尚风格启发而推出的首场时装系列让古驰品牌重现辉煌,进而深刻影响了整个时尚界。今年七月,古驰宣布第二季增收4.6%,从而与首季营收减少7.9%形成了鲜明对比。“Everyone loves the 1970s and the idea of being so cool yet so laid back,” says Justin O’Shea, buying director for luxury e-retailer Mytheresa.com. “The 1970s spirit is unbridled and it provides a feeling of pure happiness, which resonates with the end consumer, whether fashion or high jewellery.”“大家都喜欢上世纪70年代的时尚风格,它显得既新潮又休闲。”奢侈品线上零售网Mytheresa.com采购总监贾斯汀攠谢(Justin O’Shea)说。“上世纪70年代崇尚天马行空的时尚风格,它提供的是纯粹的快乐感,不管是时装还是高档首饰,都深受终端消费者的青睐。”While 1970s jewellery by Bulgari, David Webb, Van Cleef amp; Arpels and other big names make the highest prices, the market for independent 1970s designers such as Andrew Grima and John Donald is growing, too.虽说宝格丽(Bulgari)、大卫韦伯以及梵克雅宝(Van Cleef amp; Arpels)等知名品牌推出的上世纪70年代时尚风格的首饰市场售价最高,但安德鲁格里马(Andrew Grima)以及约翰唐纳德(John Donald)等上世纪70年代独立设计师同样越来越受到市场追捧。Indeed, according to Daniel Struyf, Bonhams’ new international jewellery director, there was more craftsmanship in 1970s jewellery than in today’s pieces. Little wonder a Grima grey-blue sapphire and diamond square-cut ring in Bonhams’ fine jewellery sale in London next month is estimated at 500,000- 700,000.没错,在邦瀚斯拍卖行(Bonhams)新任国际珠宝总监丹尼尔斯特鲁伊夫(Daniel Struyf)看来,相比如今的珠宝首饰,上世纪70年代的物件多由手工打造。由格里马打造的一款镶嵌蓝宝石与钻石、方形切割而成的蓝灰色戒指在下月的邦瀚斯伦敦名贵首饰拍卖会上预估价高达50万-70万英镑也就不足为奇了。London gallerist Louisa Guinness, who launched LG Treasures in May focusing on rare 1970s (and 1960s) jewels, says these pieces have widened the pool of traditional jewellery collectors. “The designs are mini artworks so they appeal to collectors who like design rather than rocks or gold,” she says.伦敦画廊经营者路易莎吉尼斯(Louisa Guinness)于今年五月举办了LG Treasures,专门展出上世纪70年代(以及60年代)的珍稀款首饰。她说这些展品拓宽了传统首饰藏家的收藏范围。“这些精品犹如微型艺术珍品,深受痴迷设计风格而非宝石或黄金本身藏家之青睐。”她说。More women in their 30s to 50s are purchasing these pieces, too — to wear as well as invest. Catherine McKenna, co-founder of fine antique and period jewellers McKenna amp; Co, says: “They want an exclusive piece like a Kutchinsky instead of the same Rolex as everyone else.”更多30岁至50岁之间的女性也开始买入这类首饰,既是投资工具,也作穿戴之用。凯瑟琳麦肯纳(Catherine McKenna)是老款珠宝首饰名品公司McKenna amp; Co的联合创始人,她说:“藏家希望拥有一款限量版的辜青斯基首饰(Kutchinsky,一个源自波兰的古老珠宝品牌,距今已有一个多世纪的历史,设计极为精美,以工艺繁复著称),而不是大同小异的劳力士腕表。”According to Jon King, senior vice-president of product and store design at Tiffany amp; Co, the yellow gold that characterises 1970s jewellery makes it today’s canny investment, thanks to a better understanding of assets and investments. Tiffany has recently plundered its design archive for the first time, using its 1970s Blue Book catalogue for an eight-piece capsule collection with Dover Street Market including diamond and tsavorite gold earrings adapted from a 1973 cufflinks and stud set. “The 1970s broadens our international appeal,” says Mr King.蒂芙尼负责产品与门店设计的执行副总裁乔恩金(Jon King)说,用金银铜合金材料打造的上世纪70年代首饰如今成了投资宠儿,这都归功于对资产以及投资理念的深刻理解。蒂芙尼最近首次大规模逆袭留存的设计档案——它从上世纪70年代的Blue Book高级珠宝目录中汲取灵感,与时尚概念店丹佛街集市(Dover Street Market)合作推出了八件套的混搭系列首饰(capsule collection),其中就包括一款镶嵌钻石与沙弗来石的金耳环,它改自1973年的一套袖扣与纽扣。“上世纪70年代风格的首饰提升了我们品牌的国际知名度。”乔恩金说。“Nineteen seventies jewellery is still relatively inexpensive compared to other popular periods such as Art Deco or Georgian,” says Sam Loxton, manager of Lucas Rarities, a London-based jeweller specialising in the 1910s to the 1970s, who spoke on 1970s jewellery at September’s Lapada art and antiques fair. “Prices [for 1970s pieces] tend to be under 50,000, while I sold a Cartier Art Deco diamond sautoir for 125,000 at Art Antiques London in June and a pair of Georgian diamond drop earrings for 145,000 in July,” he says.“与阿泰科风格(Art Deco)以及英王乔治时代风格(Georgian)其它知名时期相比,上世纪70年代的珠宝首饰价位仍然较低。”Lucas Rarities经理山姆洛克斯顿(Sam Loxton)说,该店是伦敦专营20世纪初至70年代风格的珠宝零售店。在今年九月举行的Lapada艺术与古玩览会上,他这样评价上世纪70年代的珠宝首饰。“这个时代的首饰售价往往不到5万英镑,而在今年6月与7月举办的伦敦艺术古董展(Art Antiques London)上,卡地亚(Cartier)一款阿泰科风格的钻石项饰以及乔治王时期风格的一副钻石耳坠分别卖了12.5万英镑与14.5万英镑的高价。”他说。Cristina Miller, North American head of dealer relations at online marketplace 1stdibs, says the high visibility of 1970s jewellery online is fuelling the market — whether on its website or the auction house e-catalogue.奢侈品购物网1stdibs北美地区经销商主管克里斯蒂娜猠勒(Cristina Miller)说:不管是在自家网站、还是在拍卖行的电子目录上亮相,上世纪70年代风格首饰的高曝光率让珠宝首饰的行情更加火爆。“The big, bold designs and unmissable yellow gold are easier to see online than say the intricate Art Deco looks which are harder to see even with a zoom,” she says.“在网店上,设计大胆的大物件首饰以及消费者不应错过的金银铜合金材质首饰在网店上比比皆是,而做工精巧的阿泰科风格首饰即便出高价也是难觅踪迹。”她说。The deep-pocketed big brands are also driving the market as they buy back their archive to showcase in retrospectives and bolster their collections.财大气粗的知名首饰品牌通过回购自己以前推出的老款式举办回顾展以提升自己品牌知名度,从而再助首饰火爆行情以一臂之力。Van Cleef amp; Arpels is hoovering up its 1970s pieces as “if I wait I won’t find anything on the second-hand market”, says Catherine Cariou, the company’s heritage director. And Bulgari is showcasing its first coin collections, multi-gem sautoirs and other 1970s pieces in its Art of Bulgari show at the Tokyo National Museum.梵克雅宝大量回购自己上世纪70年代推出的首饰款式,给人的感觉是:“自己在二手市场不果断出手,就会一无所获”。其传承典藏总监凯瑟琳愠里乌(Catherine Cariou)说。宝格丽在东京国立物馆(Tokyo National Museum)举办了“宝格丽的艺术展”(Art of Bulgari show),展出了自己推出的首个纪念币系列、镶嵌多颗宝石的项饰以及其它上世纪70年代的各款首饰。“Everywhere we expose the brand, we show these [1970s] pieces to bring desirability to the brand and to convince clients to go for a high jewellery piece, particularly those clients from China and south east Asia” says Vincent Reynes, Bulgari’s UK managing director.“不管在哪儿举办展会,我们都会展示这些上世纪70年代的首饰,以增加品牌满意度,并且成功说消费者购置高档首饰,尤其是那些来自中国以及东南亚的客户。“宝格丽英国区总经理文森特雷恩斯(Vincent Reynes)说。With the 1970s look still vibrating across the spring/summer 2016 catwalks, boho jewels look set for a glittering future.上世纪70年代风格的首饰仍在各大时装品牌2016年春夏季展中大放异,波希米亚风格的首饰前景注定是一片光明。 /201512/416508

  Chinese consumer confidence has remained surprisingly resilient over the past three years despite the slowing economic growth, as a result of more selective and careful spending, according to a new report from McKinsey And Co.根据麦肯锡发布的最新报告显示,尽管经济增速放缓,但由于中国消费者在消费方面越来越挑剔谨慎,中国消费者信心在过去3年里保持了惊人的韧性。Daniel Zipser, partner in McKinsey#39;s Shanghai office and leader of its China consumer and retail practice, said shoppers have been shifting their focus to premium segments, away from what are considered mass-produced items.麦肯锡上海办事处的合伙人、大中华区消费与零售咨询业务的负责人Daniel Zipser表示,消费者已经将其重点从被认为是批量生产的商品转移到高端产品了。Half of the respondents in the McKinsey#39;s 2016 China Consumer Report said they look specifically for the best, most expensive products, a significant increase on previous years. The same share said they are allocating more of their income to lifestyle services and experience spending.根据麦肯锡发布的《2016年中国消费者报告》显示,有一半的受访者表示,他们专门寻找最好、最贵的产品,这比前几年有显著的增加。另外一半受访者称,他们将更多收入用在生活务和体验的花销上。;Chinese consumer trends tend to shift in an instant, thanks to the contribution of social media, and at the moment they have turned toward premium products,; said Zipser.Zipser说道:“由于社会媒体的贡献,中国消费者的消费倾向很快就发生了转变,目前他们转向到了高端产品中去。”A rising proportion of Chinese consumers are focusing their loyalty onto fewer brands, and the number willing to switch to brand names outside their ;short list; has dropped sharply, the report said.该报告还指出,越来越多的中国消费者只关注少数几个品牌,而愿意改用候选名单以外品牌的消费者数量大幅减少。Gong Fang, another partner in McKinsey#39;s Shanghai office, said in the apparel sector, the number of consumers willing to consider a brand they hadn#39;t bought before, dropped from 40 percent in 2012 to just below 30 percent last year.麦肯锡上海办事处的另一位合伙人龚方表示,在装行业,愿意考虑一个从没有买过的品牌的消费者人数从2012年的40%下降到了去年的30%。;It is essential for both international and domestic brands to understand and respond to such changes in Chinese spending habits,; said Gong.龚方说道:“了解和应对中国消费习惯的这种变化,对国际和国内品牌来说,都是至关重要的。” /201603/433913

  Young people in China aged between 14 and 35 spend more than a quarter of their lives online, according to a report on Internet behavior published jointly by the Communist Youth League and the Sogou search engine.据一份由共青团和搜联合发布的网络行为调查报告显示,中国14岁到35岁的年轻人,其生命中四分之一的时间都在上网。The report says, in the past year, those born in the 1980s spent 6.2 hours per day on the Internet. While the 90#39;s generation went online for 6.5 hours.报告称,在过去一年中,80后每天上网6.2个小时,而90后每天上网6.5小时。10 p.m. is the most active time for younger net users.晚上10点是年轻网民最活跃的时间。The young online users input 29 billion characters each day, with the emoji symbol meaning ;I don#39;t know whether to cry or to laugh; the most commonly used.这些年轻网民们每天要打290亿个字,“笑哭”是使用最多的表情。Speech input is gaining in popularity, especially among younger users, according to the report.该报告指出,语音输入越来越受欢迎,尤其是在年轻用户之间。The Sogou Pinyin, a popular Chinese input software, receives 240 million speech inputs on average every day.用户每天会使用中国流行的输入软件--搜拼音,语音输入2.4亿个字。The report also said that although young Chinese net users generally have a strong personality and like to complain, they have strong awareness of patriotism and are more rational when faced with rumors.报告还称,虽然中国网民个性越来越强、越来越爱吐槽,但是他们具有很强的爱国主义意识,面对谣言时也更理性。 /201706/512930。


  Back in the 1960s there was a briefly popular wave of “futurism,” of books and articles attempting to predict the changes ahead. One of the best-known, and certainly the most detailed, of these works was Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener’s “The Year 2000” (1967), which offered, among other things, a systematic list of technological innovations Kahn and Wiener considered “very likely in the last third of the 20th century.”早在20世纪60年代,“未来主义”思潮曾经有过一个短暂的兴盛,许多书籍文章都试图预测未来的社会变化。其中最著名,也绝对是最详尽的一本书,是1967年出版的赫尔曼·卡恩(Herman Kahn)和安东尼·维纳(Anthony J. Wiener)的《2000年》(The Year 2000)。在这本书里,卡恩和维纳系统化地列出了一份他们认为“在20世纪最后那三分之一的时间里最有可能发生的科技创新”清单。Unfortunately, the two authors were mostly wrong. They didn’t miss much, foreseeing developments that recognizably correspond to all the main elements of the information technology revolution, including smartphones and the Internet. But a majority of their predicted innovations (“individual flying platforms”) hadn’t arrived by 2000 — and still haven’t arrived, a decade and a half later.遗憾的是,这两位作者的预测并不太准确。这并不是说他们有什么遗漏。信息科技革命主要元素所带来的一切发展变革,包括智能手机和互联网,都在他们的预见之中。然而,他们预测的绝大多数创新(例如“私人飞行平台”)都落空了,不但未能在2000年实现,即使在15年之后的今天也仍然未见踪影。The truth is that if you step back from the headlines about the latest gadget, it becomes obvious that we’ve made much less progress since 1970 — and experienced much less alteration in the fundamentals of life — than almost anyone expected. Why?如果你跳出那些铺天盖地的最新产品报道,就会发现一个明显的现实:自1970年以来,我们社会的进步,以及我们基本生活方式的改变,远逊于我们所有人的预期。Robert J. Gordon, a distinguished macro and economic historian at Northwestern, has been arguing for a long time against the techno-optimism that saturates our culture, with its constant assertion that we’re in the midst of revolutionary change. Starting at the height of the dot-com frenzy, he has repeatedly called for perspective: Developments in information and communication technology, he has insisted, just don’t measure up to past achievements. Specifically, he has argued that the I.T. revolution is less important than any one of the five Great Inventions that powered economic growth from 1870 to 1970: electricity, urban sanitation, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, the internal combustion engine and modern communication.长期以来,科技乐观主义渗透在我们的社会文化之中,人们一直认为我们所身处的时代是一个革命性的变革时代。任教于西北大学的罗伯特·戈登(Robert J. Gordon),一个杰出的宏观经济学家和经济历史学家,却始终对这种科技乐观主义持反对态度。从互联网最繁荣时期开始,他一再警示世人保持冷静。他指出,信息通讯技术的发展根本不能与过去的成就相提并论。具体而言,他认为:电力、城市卫生、化学与制药、内燃机和现代通讯这“五大发明”推动了从1870到1970这100年间的经济发展,而信息科技革命与其中任何一项发明都无法比拟。In “The Rise and Fall of American Growth,” Gordon doubles down on that theme, declaring that the kind of rapid economic growth we still consider our due, and expect to continue forever, was in fact a one-time-only event. First came the Great Inventions, almost all dating from the late 19th century. Then came refinement and exploitation of those inventions — a process that took time, and exerted its peak effect on economic growth between 1920 and 1970. Everything since has at best been a faint echo of that great wave, and Gordon doesn’t expect us ever to see anything similar.在《美国增长的起落》(The Rise and Fall of American Growth)这本书中,戈登进一步强调了这一论点,宣称这种经济的快速增长并非理所当然。它只是历史上发生的一个一次性事件,不会如我们所愿一直持续下去。首先,几乎所有“五大发明”都发生在19世纪后期;接着是对这些发明进行提炼和开发的漫长过程,其对经济增长的影响在1920到1970年期间达到顶峰;那以后的一切都不过是之前这个伟大变革的微弱余波而已。戈登认为我们不会再次看到历史的重演。Is he right? My answer is a definite maybe. But whether or not you end up agreeing with Gordon’s thesis, this is a book well worth ing — a magisterial combination of deep technological history, vivid portraits of daily life over the past six generations and careful economic analysis. Non-economists may find some of the charts and tables heavy going, but Gordon never loses sight of the real people and real lives behind those charts. This book will challenge your views about the future; it will definitely transform how you see the past.他说得是否正确?我的回答是:绝对有可能。不过,不管你最终是否同意戈登的论断,这本书都值得一读。它将深刻的科技发展史、过去六代人日常生活的生动描述,以及细致的经济分析完美地整合在一起。如果你不是一个经济学家,也许你会觉得有些图表比较难懂,但是戈登从未忽视那些图表背后的民众真实生活。这本书不但会挑战你对未来的视角,而且肯定会改变你对过去的看法。Indeed, almost half the book is devoted to changes that took place before World War II. Others have covered this ground — most notably Daniel Boorstin in “The Americans: The Democratic Experience.” Even knowing this literature, however, I was fascinated by Gordon’s account of the changes wrought by his Great Inventions. As he says, “Except in the rural South, daily life for every American changed beyond recognition between 1870 and 1940.” Electric lights replaced candles and whale oil, flush toilets replaced outhouses, cars and electric trains replaced horses. (In the 1880s, parts of New York’s financial district were seven feet deep in manure.)这本书一半以上篇幅都被用来专门描绘“二战”之前所发生的变化。对这一阶段的研究不乏著述,其中最引人注目的是丹尼尔·布尔斯廷(Daniel Boorstin)的《美国人:南北战争以来的经历》(The Americans:The Democratic Experience)。虽然我对这些文献相当熟悉,戈登对其“五大发明”所带来的变革之描述依然使我着迷。如他所说:“除了南方乡下,每一个美国人的日常生活在1870到1940年间都发生了翻天覆地的变化。”电灯代替了蜡烛和油灯,抽水马桶代替了屋外的茅房,汽车和电动火车代替了马车(在19世纪80年代,纽约金融区的一部分还泡在七英尺深的马粪中呢)。 Meanwhile, backbreaking toil both in the workplace and in the home was for the most part replaced by far less onerous employment. This is a point all too often missed by economists, who tend to think only about how much purchasing power people have, not about what they have to do to get it, and Gordon does an important service by reminding us that the conditions under which men and women labor are as important as the amount they get paid.同时,无论是在工作场所,还是家庭生活中,繁重的劳作大多被相对轻松的工作所代替。这一点经常被经济学家们所忘记。他们一般只考虑民众的购买力,而不考虑他们为了获得这些购买力所需要付出的劳动。戈登的重要贡献是提醒我们,民众的劳作条件与他们的收入所得同样重要。Aside from its being an interesting story, however, why is it important to study this transformation? Mainly, Gordon suggests — although these are my words, not his — to provide a baseline. What happened between 1870 and 1940, he argues, and I would agree, is what real transformation looks like. Any claims about current progress need to be compared with that baseline to see how they measure up.这段历史是一段很有意思的往事。然而,除此之外,对这些变迁的研究究竟有什么重要性呢?我的理解是这样的:戈登提出,这段历史可以为我们研究后期历史提供一个对比的基准。戈登声称,1870到1940年这段时期是一个真正变革的样本,我同意他的这个说法。我们需要与这个历史上的变革时期去比较,才能对现代社会发展进程的快慢做一个恰当的判断。And it’s hard not to agree with him that nothing that has happened since is remotely comparable. Urban life in America on the eve of World War II was aly recognizably modern; you or I could walk into a 1940s apartment, with its indoor plumbing, gas range, electric lights, refrigerator and telephone, and we’d find it basically functional. We’d be annoyed at the lack of television and Internet — but not horrified or disgusted.如此,我们不得不赞同他所说:1940年以后所发生的一切,与以前根本无法相提并论。“二战”前夕的美国城市生活已经相当现代化;我们可以随意走进一间1940年时的公寓,看到它里面的下水设施、煤气灶、电灯、冰箱和电话,我们会觉得它已经具备一间房子的所有基本功能。也许我们会因为没有电视和网络而感到不便,但却不会感到无法忍受。By contrast, urban Americans from 1940 walking into 1870-style accommodations — which they could still do in the rural South — were indeed horrified and disgusted. Life fundamentally improved between 1870 and 1940 in a way it hasn’t since.相反,1940年的城市美国人却会对1870年代的住房感到无法忍受——那时在美国南方乡下还可以找到这种房子。在1870年到1940年间,人类的生活条件发生了前所未有的根本变化。Now, in 1940 many Americans were aly living in what was recognizably the modern world, but many others weren’t. What happened over the next 30 years was that the further maturing of the Great Inventions led to rapidly rising incomes and a sp of that modern lifestyle to the nation as a whole. But then everything slowed down. And Gordon argues that the slowdown is likely to be permanent: The great age of progress is behind us. But is Gordon just from the wrong generation, unable to fully appreciate the wonders of the latest technology? I suspect that things like social media make a bigger positive difference to people’s lives than he acknowledges. But he makes two really good points that throw quite a lot of cold water on the claims of techno-optimists.当然,在1940年,尽管许多美国人已经过上了比较现代的生活,但很多人还未能享受同等条件。在接下来的30年里,随着“五大发明”进一步成熟,人们的收入迅速提升,现代生活方式在全国大幅扩展。但是,在此之后,进展逐步放缓。戈登认为这种缓慢的进展可能才是永久常态,大变革时期已经结束。然而,这会不会是因为戈登那代人头脑已经老化,无法充分体会最新科技之神奇呢?我认为,戈登的确没有完全意识到像网络社交媒体这样的新科技给人们生活带来的正面影响。但是,有两点他说得非常好,十分切中科技乐观主义者观点的要害。First, he points out that genuinely major innovations normally bring about big changes in business practices, in what workplaces look like and how they function. And there were some changes along those lines between the mid-1990s and the mid-2000s — but not much since, which is evidence for Gordon’s claim that the main impact of the I.T. revolution has aly happened.首先,他指出:真正的重大革新往往会根本改变商业行为,为企业工作场所及其职能带来巨大的变化。20世纪90年代中期开始的这10年中,这方面的确发生了一些变化,然而那之后,就再没有什么改变了。这正印了戈登的断言:信息科技革命的主要影响已经过去了。Second, one of the major arguments of techno-optimists is that official measures of economic growth understate the real extent of progress, because they don’t fully account for the benefits of truly new goods. Gordon concedes this point, but notes that it was always thus — and that the understatement of progress was probably bigger during the great prewar transformation than it is today.其次,技术乐观主义者的一个主要观点是,经济增长的官方数据低估了进步的真实程度,因为他们没有充分考虑真正的新产品所带来的益处。戈登承认这一点,但指出,这和过去并没有什么不同。相反,在战前的大变革时期,这种低估很有可能要比今天更甚。So what does this say about the future? Gordon suggests that the future is all too likely to be marked by stagnant living standards for most Americans, because the effects of slowing technological progress will be reinforced by a set of “headwinds”: rising inequality, a plateau in education levels, an aging population and more.这对未来意味着什么呢?戈登认为,对大多数美国人来说,未来很有可能是生活水平停滞不前。技术进步的缓慢将被一系列“逆向”因素强化:贫富差距不断加大、教育水平不再提高、人口趋于老龄化,等等。It’s a shocking prediction for a society whose self-image, arguably its very identity, is bound up with the expectation of constant progress. And you have to wonder about the social and political consequences of another generation of stagnation or decline in working-class incomes.我们社会的自我形象,甚至可以说自我认同,都以不断的发展进步为核心。戈登对未来的预测实在是振聋发聩、发人深省。我们不得不认真思考,如果下一代工薪阶层收入继续停滞或下降,这将会带来什么样的社会和政治后果。Of course, Gordon could be wrong: Maybe we’re on the cusp of truly transformative change, say from artificial intelligence or radical progress in biology (which would bring their own risks). But he makes a powerful case. Perhaps the future isn’t what it used to be.当然,戈登也有可能错了。也许我们正处在一个真正的革命性变革的前夕,这种变革也许是人工智能或者在生物学上的根本性进展(当然伴随而来的还有相应的风险)。但是他的确提出了一个强有力的论。也许,未来和过去的确不再相同。 /201602/426167


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