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Justin Trudeau, a young and handsome outdoorsman and former bartender, among other roles far removed from politics, proved Monday he is not just another pretty face.贾斯汀·特鲁多,这位年轻英俊又热爱户外运动的前酒保(他从事过的其他职业也都和政治相去甚远9日向人们明,他拥有的,可不仅仅只有高颜值。The son of the late and beloved premier Pierre Trudeau has led Canadas opposition Liberal party to a landslide in Canadas general election.贾斯汀·特鲁多是深受加拿大人民喜爱的已故总理皮埃尔·特鲁多的儿子,他带领加拿大反对党自由党在大选中以压倒性的胜利击败对手。The former French teacher, aged 43, overcame campaign attack ads claiming he was ;just not y; to lead Canada.特鲁多现3岁,曾经做过法语教师,一举粉碎了竞选期间攻击性广告声称他“还没准备好”领导加拿大的说辞。With his mop of dark curly hair, a confident swagger and hints of his fathers style of speaking, Trudeau looks years younger than he is.一头蓬松的深色卷发,彰显自信的昂首阔步,演说风格隐约透露出他父亲当年的风范,特鲁多看起来比他真实年纪年轻多了。Rivals cast this as a liability during the campaign as he tried to convince voters he was shrewd and experienced enough to be prime minister.当他在竞选时向选民力自己精明干练、阅历丰富,足以胜任总理一职时,他的对手总是利用他的年纪来攻击他。Trudeau is actually only three years younger than outgoing Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper was when he was first elected in 2006.其实特鲁多只即将离任的保守党总理史蒂芬·哈珀006年初次当选时年轻了三岁而已;Hes not the smartest guy in the room,; former senior Liberal MP Bob Rae told The Globe and Mail newspaper.前自由党高级议员鲍勃·雷对加拿大《环球邮报》表示:“特鲁多并不是这议会里最聪明的人。;But he knows how to reach a room. He likes people, and people like him.;“但他知道如何赢得人们的喜欢,他喜欢人民,人民也喜欢他。”Canadas Kennedys加拿大的肯尼迪家族The Trudeau family is often compared to the Kennedys in the ed States.特鲁多家族经常被拿来和美国的肯尼迪家族相比较。Pierre Trudeau, who died in 2000, was prime minister from 1968 to 1979, and again from 1980 to 1984. He is considered the father of modern Canada.皮埃尔·特鲁多968年至1979年间担任加拿大总理980年到1984年间继续连任,于2000年去世。皮埃尔·特鲁多被誉为当代加拿大国父。He was admired for the force of his intellect and praised for his political acumen in preserving national unity against Quebec separatists.他因才智过人而广受尊敬,也因平息魁北克分裂危机,保全祖国完整保全祖国完整而被人盛赞其政治智慧。The elder Trudeau established the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, decriminalized homosexuality and pushed for the bilingualism and multiculturalism that have become an integral part of Canadian national identity.老特鲁多颁布了《权利与自由宪章》,将同性婚姻合法化,推进双语学习和多元文化,现在这些东西都已成为加拿大国家认同不可分割的一部分。Justins birth on December 25, 1971, made front page news across Canada.贾斯汀出生97125日,彼时加拿大全国上下都争相报道他的出生。His mother Margarets partying with the Rolling Stones and her 1984 divorce from Pierre - Canadas first big political scandal - was also fodder for tabloids.他的母亲玛格丽特和滚石乐队聚会玩乐以984年与皮埃尔的离婚事件——这是加拿大第一个政治大丑闻——也为小报提供了素材和谈资。Politics came late 姗姗来迟的政治生涯Justin Trudeau spent many of his early years working out a direction to take in his life, working as a whitewater guide, snowboard instructor, bartender, bouncer, a public speaker and an advocate for various causes.贾斯汀·特鲁多早年花了不少时间摸索自己的人生方向,他做过漂流导游、滑雪教练、酒保,也当过保镖、公共演说家,还是多项事业的倡导者。His eulogy at his fathers state funeral in 2000 arguably launched his political career. He was approached to run days afterward, but said no. It was too soon.2000年,他在父亲的国葬上发表悼词,可以说是他政治生涯的起点。数天后,有人找他参选,可他谢绝了。他认为彼时还为时太早;The battle to convince myself and others that I was my own person had challenged me all through high school and university,; he wrote in a recent memoir.他在最近出版的回忆录里写道:“向自己和别人明‘我就是我’的战争贯穿了我的高中和大学时期。;Why should I negate these efforts by making the one career choice that would guarantee I would be measured according to my fathers achievements?;“为什么我得抹杀掉自己所做的这些努力,选择这样一份无论我怎么做,都只会被拿来和我爸爸的成就相比较的职业呢?”In 2005, Trudeau married television host Sophie Gregoire and soon had three children: Xavier, Ella-Grace and Hadrien.2005年,特鲁多和电视主持人索菲·格雷戈瓦(Sophie Gregoire)成婚,不久后迎来了三个孩子:泽维尔(Xavier),艾拉-格蕾丝(Ella-Grace)和哈德利安(Hadrien)。Trudeau would eventually run in a gritty, working-class neighborhood of Montreal and was elected to the House of Commons in 2008 and re-elected in 2011.特鲁多最终代表蒙特利尔一个脏乱差的工人阶层社区参加竞选,008年加入下议院,于2011年连任。Liberals hoped when they made him leader that his youth and famous name would revitalize the party in time to challenge the Conservatives in 2015.自由党推选他为党首,希望借他的年轻和名声重振党派,以015年和保守党抗衡。In two years, Trudeau brought in Can million to the party and attracted 57,000 volunteers to the campaign, while party membership rose tenfold to 300,000.在两年之内,特鲁多为自由党带来了3700万加元的资金,为竞选吸引了5.7万名自愿者,党派成员人数更是增长了十倍,达到30万人。But he raised eyebrows by admitting to having smoked marijuana at a dinner party with friends since being elected to parliament.不过他承认自己当选议员后曾在一次朋友聚会上吸食大麻,引发非议。During the campaign, Trudeau worked off his energy by boxing once a week with an aide, sparring at any gym they could find wherever they were in the country.竞选期间,特鲁多每周都在助理的陪同下打一次拳击,以发泄精力。无论人在加拿大的哪个地方,只要能找到体育馆,他们都会过去打拳击;Boxings not about beating up on the other guy. Its about sticking to your plan while the other guy takes shots at you,; Trudeau told The Globe and Mail.特鲁多向《环球邮报》表示:“拳击的本质并不是痛打对手,而是在别人攻击你时,将自己的计划坚持下去。”来 /201510/405003In the last month, terror attacks that left 130 dead in Paris and 43 dead in Beirut and took down a Russian airliner with 224 people aboard have made the entire world horribly aware that the Islamic State not only seeks to establish a caliphate in Syria and Iraq, but also is beginning to export its monstrous savagery abroad. Although the Islamic State has been in the headlines for only two years, and its metastasis has been alarmingly swift, the seeds of the group in its many incarnations were planted many years ago, as Joby Warrick’s gripping new book, “Black Flags,makes clear.上个月,巴黎30人在恐怖袭击中丧生,贝鲁特亦有43人因恐怖袭击丧生,俄罗斯一架航班因恐怖袭击坠落,机上224人无人生还,整个世界惊恐地意识到,伊斯兰Islamic State)不仅谋求在叙利亚与伊拉克建立哈里发的国土,也开始向海外输出惨无人道的暴行。尽管伊斯兰国广受媒体关注只有两年的时间,它的扩散极为迅速,令人担忧,乔比·瓦里克(Joby Warrick)引人入胜的新书《黑旗Black Flags)中阐明,这个组织的种子以多种多样的形式,早在多年之前便已播下。Mr. Warrick, a reporter for The Washington Post and the author of the 2011 best seller “The Triple Agent,has a gift for constructing narratives with a novelistic energy and detail, and in this volume, he creates the most revealing portrait yet laid out in a book of Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, the founding father of the organization that would become the Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL).瓦里克是《华盛顿邮报The Washington Post)的记者,亦是2011年最佳畅销书《三重特工The Triple Agent)的作者,他擅长以小说式的活力和细节组织叙事,在这本书里,他为伊斯兰国(亦称ISIS或ISIL)的前身组织的创始人阿布·穆萨布·扎卡维(Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi)做出了迄今最为发人深省的的描述。Although this book owes some debts to Jean-Charles Brisard’s 2005 book, “Zarqawi: The New Face of Al Qaeda,Mr. Warrick places that material in context with recent developments and uses his own copious sources within the ed States and Jordanian intelligence to flesh out Mr. Zarqawi’s story and the crucial role that American missteps and misjudgments would play in fueling his rise and the advance of the Islamic State.尽管这本书从查尔斯·布利萨Jean-Charles Brisard)2005年的著作《扎卡维:基地组织的新面孔Zarqawi: The New Face of Al Qaeda)中有所借鉴,瓦里克把这些素材与事态的最新发展结合起来,动用了自己在美国与约旦情报机关中的大量人脉,充实了扎卡维的故事,以及美国的错误行动与错误判断在他的崛起与伊斯兰国的发展之中,扮演了多么重要的作用。Perhaps emulating the approach Lawrence Wright took in “The Looming Tower,his masterly 2006 account of the road to Sept. 11, Mr. Warrick focuses parts of this book on the lives of several individuals with singular, inside takes on the overarching story. They include a doctor named Basel al-Sabha, who treated Mr. Zarqawi in prison; Abu Haytham, who ran the counterterrorism unit of Jordan’s intelligence service and fought the Islamic State in its various guises for years; and Nada Bakos, a young C.I.A. officer who became the agency’s top expert on Mr. Zarqawi. This narrative approach lends the larger story of the Islamic State an up-close-and-personal immediacy and underscores the many what-ifs that occurred along the way.或许是模仿劳伦斯·赖特(Lawrence Wright)006年出版的揭示911事件成因的杰作《末日巨塔The Looming Tower),瓦利斯的书中也有几部部分是关注整个故事中几个具有特殊内部视点的人物,其中包括在狱中给扎卡维看病的巴塞尔·阿里-萨布Basel al-Sabha)医生;约旦情报机构反恐部门的领导人阿布·海萨姆(Abu Haytham),多年来他与伊斯兰国的各种伪装形式进行斗争;年轻的中央情报局官员纳达·巴克Nada Bakos),他成了中情局研究扎卡维的顶级专家。这样的叙事方式为更大范围的伊斯兰国的故事带来一种贴近而且个人化的直接性,强调出它发展过程中的各种可能性。In “Black Flags,Mr. Zarqawi comes across as a kind of Bond villain, who repeatedly foils attempts to neutralize him. He was a hard-drinking, heavily tattooed Jordanian street thug (well versed in pimping, drug dealing and assault), and when he found religion, he fell for it hard, having a relative slice off his offending tattoos with a razor blade.在《黑旗》中,扎卡维有点07故事中的反派,他一再努力令自己中立化,却总是失败。他曾经是个酗酒、满身刺青的约旦街头流氓(精通拉皮条、贩毒和打人),后来他找到了信仰,深深沉浸其中,让一个亲戚用剃刀把他身上带有不敬内容的文身割去了。He traveled to Afghanistan in 1989 to wage jihad; during a stint in a Jordanian prison, he emerged as a leader known and feared for his ruthlessness as an enforcer among Islamist inmates. He began thinking of himself as a man with a destiny, and in the aftermath of the American invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, he set up a small training camp in Iraq’s northeastern mountains, near the Iranian border.1989年,他去往阿富汗发动圣战;在约旦监狱刑期间,他成了一名领袖,以对同一监狱中的伊斯兰教徒冷血无情著称,并且深受畏惧。他开始认为自己负有使命,后来001年美国入侵阿富汗时,他在伊拉克东北部靠近伊朗边界的山脉中开设了一个小型训练营。At this point, Mr. Zarqawi was just a small-time jihadist. But then, Mr. Warrick writes, “in the most improbable of events, America intervened,declaring in an effort to make the case for ousting Saddam Hussein that “this obscure Jordanian was the link between Iraq’s dictatorship and the plotters behind the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.As C.I.A. analysts well knew, this assertion was false; in retrospect, it would also have the perverse effect of turning Mr. Zarqawi into “an international celebrity and the toast of the Islamist movement.Weeks later, when ed States troops invaded Iraq, this newly famous terrorist “gained a battleground and a cause and soon thousands of followers.”当时,扎卡维还只是一个三流圣战者。但在那个时候,沃里克写道,“美国介入了最荒谬的事件,”为了推翻萨达姆·侯赛Saddam Hussein),美国宣布,“这个鲜为人知的约旦人与伊拉克的独裁政权有联系,00111恐怖袭击事件背后的策划者。”正如中央情报局的分析员所知,这个断言是错误的;事后看来,它也产生了错误的效应,令扎卡维成了“国际名人,以及伊斯兰运动中备受赞誉的人士。”几个星期后,美国军队入侵了伊拉克,这个声誉鹊起的恐怖分子“得到了战场,以及一个理由,很快就得到了成千上万的拥趸。”Accused by the Bush administration of being in league with Saddam Hussein, Mr. Zarqawi would use the Americanstoppling of the dictator to empower himself. He was a diabolical strategist, and he quickly capitalized on two disastrous decisions made by the Americans (dissolving the Iraqi Army and banning Baath Party members from positions of authority), which intensified the country’s security woes and left tens of thousands of Iraqis out of work and on the street. Soon, former members of Mr. Hussein’s military were enlisting in Mr. Zarqawi’s army; others offered safe houses, intelligence, cash and weapons.小布什政府指责扎卡维同萨达姆·侯赛因联盟,于是扎卡维就利用美国推翻这个独裁者的机会增加自己的权力。他是个恶魔般的战略家,很快就利用了美国的两个灾难性的决定(其一是解散了伊拉克陆军,其二是解除了伊拉克复兴党员们的公职),这两个决定令国家的安全问题进一步恶化,令数万伊拉克人失业,流落街头。很快,侯赛因的前军队就集结在扎卡维麾下;其他人则为他们提供安全屋、情报、现金和武器。While the Bush White House was debating whether there even was an insurgency in Iraq, Mr. Zarqawi was helping to direct the worsening violence there, orchestrating car and suicide bombings and shocking beheadings. He also used terrorism to change the battlefield, fomenting sectarian hatred between the Shiites and the disenfranchised and increasingly bitter Sunnis, guaranteeing more chaos and discrediting the electoral process.当小布什政府还在讨论伊拉克境内是否有叛变之际,扎卡维已经开始在那里制造日益恶化的暴力事件,他精心安排车辆炸弹与自杀炸弹,以及骇人的斩首事件。他还利用恐怖主义改变战场,在什叶派与丧失选举权,日益布满的逊尼派之间煽动宗派仇恨,在选举过程中不断制造混乱与怀疑。Mr. Zarqawi’s penchant for ultraviolence had won him his favorite moniker, “the sheikh of the slaughterers,but by mid-2005, his bloodthirstiness and killing of Shiite innocents worried Al Qaeda’s leadership, which warned him that “the mujahed movement must avoid any action that the masses do not understand or approve.”扎卡维对大型暴力的热爱为他赢得了一个绰号,他自己也非常喜欢——“屠夫酋长”,但到2005年年中,他的嗜血与杀害什叶派无辜者的行为令基地组织的领导人也为之担忧,他们警告他,“圣战运动应当避免任何民众不能理解或不赞同的行为。”After many narrow escapes, Mr. Zarqawi was finally killed by a ed States airstrike in June 2006, and over the next few years, the ed States managed to decimate much of his organization. Still, dangerous embers remained, and they would burst into flames under the group’s new leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who shared Mr. Zarqawi’s taste for gruesome violence, and who had built up a valuable network of supporters while serving time in Camp Bucca, a ed States-controlled prison known as a “jihadi universityfor its role in radicalizing inmates. The sectarianism of the Iraqi prime minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki drove increasingly marginalized Sunnis into the embrace of the Islamic State a dynamic hastened by the withdrawal of American troops in 2011. Meanwhile, in Syria, the chaos of civil war created perfect conditions for the Islamic State’s explosive growth and a home base for its self-proclaimed caliphate.经历了多次死里逃生,扎卡维终于006月死于美国空袭之中,在接下来的数年里,美国消灭了他的大部分组织。但是危险的星星之火仍然存在,终于在组织的新领袖阿布·贝克尔·巴格达Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi)领导下成为燎原之势,他和扎卡维一样热衷残酷暴力,布卡营地(Camp Bucca)刑期间,更是建立起了持者的宝贵网络,这座监狱由美国控制,刑者在这里往往变得更加激进,因此素有“圣战者的大学”之称。伊拉克总理努里·卡迈勒·马利基(Nuri Kamal al-Maliki)的宗派主义令日益边缘化的逊尼派教徒开始接受伊斯兰国——这个势头随着2011年美国撤军而加快。与此同时,在叙利亚,内战的混乱为伊斯兰国的迅速崛起创造了完美的条件,也为它所自称的哈里发提供了家园。The final chapters of this volume have a somewhat hurried feel. In fact, more detailed examinations of the rise of Mr. Baghdadi, the Islamic State’s sophisticated use of social media, and its efforts to displace Al Qaeda as the leader of global jihad can be found in two illuminating recent books: “ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror,by Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassan, and “ISIS: The State of Terror,by Jessica Stern and J. M. Berger. But for ers interested in the roots of the Islamic State and the evil genius of its godfather, Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, there is no better book to begin with than “Black Flags.”本书的最后一章有点像赶出来的。事实上,关于巴格达迪的崛起、伊斯兰国对社交媒体精心设计的运用,以及它谋求取代基地组织,成为全球圣战领袖的努力可以在另外两本颇具启发性的新书中找到:迈克尔·韦Michael Weiss)和哈桑·哈Hassan Hassan)的《ISIS: 走进恐怖军团ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror),以及杰西卡·斯特Jessica Stern)与J·M·伯格的《ISIS: 恐怖之囀?ISIS: The State of Terror)。但是对伊斯兰国的起源,以及它的邪恶教父阿布·穆萨布·扎卡维感兴趣的读者们来说,《黑旗》是个最好的开始。来 /201512/415515With temperatures rising four times faster than anywhere else in Asia, the Tibetan Plateau might soon lose most of its glacier and permafrost, affecting water supplies throughout Asia, Chinese scientists say.青藏高原的气温上升速度比亚洲其它地区快了四倍,中国科学家说青藏高原上绝大部分的冰川和永动层或许不久就将消失殆尽,这将影响亚洲各地的淡水供应。Long known as the ;roof of the world,; the Tibetan Plateau is about the size of Western Europe and supplies water to nearly 2 billion people in Asia as the source of several major rivers, including the Yangze, Mekong, Salween (Gyalmo Ngulchu), Indus, Brahmaputra and Yellow rivers.作为早就闻名遐迩的“世界屋脊”,青藏高原的面积和西欧差不多。这一地区是包括长江、湄公河、萨尔温江、印度河、雅鲁藏布江和黄河在内的几条大河的源头,向亚洲近20亿人供应着淡水。But because of the impact of climate change, the glaciers are retreating rapidly, grasslands are shrinking as desertification expands, regional precipitation has become irregular, water levels are dropping in major rivers and the permafrost is thawing.但受气候变化影响,这里的冰川迅速消退,草原面积不断减小,荒漠化面积不断增加,区域降水反常,几条大河的水位不断下降,永冻层也在持续融化。The melting of Tibetan glaciers, the largest mass of frozen fresh water outside the polar regions, is linked to many environmental consequences both locally and globally, including heat waves in Europe, according to some studies.青藏高原储藏着除两极地区以外最多的冰冻淡水。一些研究显示,这一地区的冰川融化与多种区域性和全球性的环境影响有关,比如欧洲的热浪。Glacial retreat冰川消融Chinese officials estimate Tibet holds 14.5 percent of the worlds total glacier mass. While there are a few different theories on what is causing the glaciers to melt, researchers agree the pace is staggering.中国官方预计西藏地区拥有占全世界14.5%的冰川储量。尽管对引起冰川融化的原因还存在不同说法,但研究者们都认为青藏高原冰川消融的速度是惊人的。Chinas state-run Xinhua news agency reported in April that an average of 247 square kilometers of glacier is disappearing annually, and that some 7,600 square kilometers of glacier, or about 18 percent of the total, has disappeared since the 1950s.今年4月,中国官方的新华社报道,青藏高原平均每年有247平方公里的冰川消融。自上世0年代以来,已经有大约7600平方公里的冰川消失,这占到青藏高原冰川总量的大8%。Zhang Mingxing, a Chinese official who heads the Tibet Mountaineering Administration, said the glacier at the Everest base camp, 5,200 meters above sea level, has aly disappeared. ;There is nothing but stones (left),; he was ed as saying by Xinhua.西藏登山运动管理中心主任张明兴说,在海拔5200米的艾佛勒斯峰(珠穆朗玛峰)大本营区的冰川已经消失。新华社援引他的描述说,那里就剩下石头了。Prior Chinese research of substances within Tibetan glaciers indicated carbon from forest fires, crop burning and domestic cooking stoves from India have caused the melting. While these could be contributing factors, scientists say the global rise in temperatures is indisputably the primary cause.在对冰川内的物质进行研究之后,之前的一些中国研究人员表示,森林大火、焚烧秸秆以及印度家庭做饭用的厨灶等造成的碳排放都导致了青藏高原冰川的融化。科研人员说,尽管可能还有其它因素,但全球气温升高正在成为导致冰川融化的一个无可辩驳的原因。Tibetans say there has been a drastic change of temperature since 1980s. One U.S.-based Tibetan who recently returned to Lhasa expressed shock at seeing the climatological impact on peoples clothing style. ;When I lived in Lhasa, it was very rare that people could walk outside in T-shirts,; said the man, who asked that his name be withheld. ;Now people are walking in shorts!;西藏地区居民表示自上世纪80年代以来,这一地区的气温发生了剧烈的变化。一位居住在美国、不愿透露姓名的西藏人表示当他最近回到拉萨时,他被人们因气候变化导致的穿衣风格的改变震惊了。他说:“当我在拉萨生活的时候,很少能见到人们穿着T恤衫走出户外的。现在走在拉萨街头的人都是短衣短裤了。”National Geographic reported in 2010 that one glacier was retreating by about 300 meters a year, the length of a U.S. football field.《国家地理》杂志在2010年报告一处冰川正在以每年大约300米的速度消退,这与一个美式橄榄球场的长度大致相当。As early as , Chinas leading scientist on glaciers, Qin Dahe, said glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau were melting faster than in any other part of the world. In the short term, he warned, the melt would trigger more flooding and mudslides; in the long term: ;water supplies in the region will be in peril.;早在年,中国从事冰川研究的带头人秦大河就表示青藏高原的冰川消融速度比世界上其它任何地方都快。他曾警告说冰川消融在短期内就可能导致更多的洪水和泥石流,长远看来这一地区的淡水供应将受到威胁。Some researchers have predicted that most of the Himalayan glaciers will be gone in 20 years.一些研究人员已经预测,喜马拉雅山地区的大部分冰川在20年内将消失殆尀?Water needs淡水需求Those shrinking glaciers feed some of the largest rivers that run through China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Burma, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia.那些正在消退的冰川是一些世界最大河流的源头,这些河流流经中囀?印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉囀?缅甸、老挝、泰囀?越南以及柬埔寨;Water is the most important resource that this region has, the common region of Tibet part of China, India, Bhutan and all of that,; said R. Rangachari, honorary scholar at Indias Center for Policy Research and former secretary of the Ministry of Water Resources of India.印度政策研究中心荣誉学者兰加夏里(R. Rangachari)说:“这一区域、也就是由中国的藏区、印度和不丹等等的共同区域所拥有的最重要的资源就是水。”兰加夏里曾担任印度水利部部长,;Water is the key to removing poverty, generation of power, agriculture, et cetera,; he told VOAs Tibetan service.他还对美国之音藏语组说:“水资源是消除贫困、发电和发展农业的关键。”A former researcher of Tibetan Plateau climate change for the Chinese Academy of Science, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said diminished glacial runoff had aly reduced water levels on the Yangtze and Yellow rivers. ;The headwaters for any major rivers come from (the) Tibetan Plateau and there is (a) lesser water supply to those head rivers,; he said.一位前中国科学院青藏高原气候变化问题研究员表示,在西藏的部分地区,水资源的供应已经在减少,像长江、黄河这样的河流水位也在下降。这位匿名人士还透露:“另一个现象就是对主要河流的供水在减少。源头在青藏高原的主要河流的上游水量在减少,对那些源头河流的供水也在变少。”Chinas Ministry of Water Resources announced in 2013 that as many as 28,000 smaller rivers in China had abruptly disappeared by 2011. While Beijing did not cite specific causes, the anonymous researcher said warming on the Tibetan Plateau was at least partly to blame.中国水利部在2013年公布一项数据,截至2011年,中国有多8000条较小的河流迅速消失。虽然水利部没有提及原因,但那位前中科院研究员表示青藏高原气候变暖是部分原因;Another important reason is the meltdown of the permafrost soil,; which leads to subterranean water drainage, he said. ;Like when you have (a) thick sponge.; The latest research conducted by the Chinese Academy of Science predicted that more than 80 percent of Tibetan Plateau permafrost could be gone by the year 2100, and that almost 40 percent of it would be gone within the ;near future.;他说:“另一个重要原因就是永久冻土融化。”他说,这带来地下水的排水问题,“就像你手里的海绵变厚一样。”中科院的最新研究预测,100年,青藏高原上可能将有超0%的永久冻土消失,有近40%的永久冻土在“不久的将来”就可能消失。Increased risk of conflict冲突风险The apparent changes in the Tibetan Plateau have raised concern about the potential for water-security conflicts in the region, particularly between China and India.青藏高原上明显的气候变化增加了人们对各方,特别是中国和印度,在水资源保障问题上发生冲突的担忧。To mitigate the environmental impact, China has stepped up construction of dams along rivers cascading from the Tibetan Plateau, despite complaints from downstream nations that need the water.在西藏环境发生明显变化的同时,中国不顾下游国家的抱怨,一直在青藏高原的河流上游加紧建设大坝。In fact, the Salween remains the only Tibetan river that has not yet been interrupted by major dams; Tibets Yarlung Tsangpo River, which feeds Indias Brahmaputra River, recently saw construction of a single dam.实际上,在源头在西藏的主要河流中,只有萨尔温河没有重要大坝的阻隔。中国最近在雅鲁藏布江上建成了一座大坝,雅鲁藏布江是印度布拉马普特拉河的源头河流。According to Rangachari, India takes the water issues seriously.兰加夏里表示印度非常重视水资源问题;Nobody wants to hand over their right to do something (especially) what the other is doing,; he said. ;Political boundaries might be created by man, but geography is created by God.;他说:“没人想把做事的权利拱手让人,特别是这件事是别人正在做的。政治界线是人为的,但地理是神定的。来 /201512/414307

Call me Finlandised but there must be a better way than sanctions. Russia and the west are competing over who can hurt the other the most. This is no way to resolve a crisis.你可以叫我“芬兰化”分子,但肯定有比制裁更好的方式。俄罗斯和西方正在比拼谁能最大限度地伤害对方。这种做法不可能解决一场危机。President Barack Obama says that sanctions are having an effect. Yes, they are. They are increasing popular support for Vladimir Putin. They are driving an ideological, political and cultural wedge between Russia and the west. While they hurt the Russian president’s close advisers, they also hurt Norwegian fishermen, Italian cheese makers, Finnish dairy companies, German technology companies and global energy companies. They drain hope from the European economy.美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)宣称制裁正在发挥作用。是的,的确起了作用。制裁提高了大众对弗拉基米尔#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)的持。制裁在俄罗斯和西方之间划下了意识形态、政治和文化的鸿沟。制裁打击了俄罗斯总统的亲近顾问,但同时也损害了挪威渔民、意大利奶酪制造商、芬兰奶制品企业、德国科技企业和全球能源企业的利益。制裁抽干了欧洲经济的希望。But are they helping the situation in eastern Ukraine? No, they are not.但这些制裁是否改善了乌克兰东部的局势?不,没有。Sanctions might work as a part of a proper strategy. At the moment, they are a substitute for policy. We need a cool-headed policy to deal with an assertive Russia. Do not get me wrong. If we do not respect human rights and the rule of law we are at the mercy of the powerful. If states do not respect the norms they have sanctified in international treaties, we turn the clock back to another century. Principles are dangerous only when they are not restrained by common sense.制裁可能作为一套合理战略的一部分发挥作用。但眼下,制裁成为了政策的替代物。我们需要冷静的政策来应对强势的俄罗斯。不要弄错了我的意思。如果我们不尊重人权和法治,我们就只能任由强者摆布。如果国家不遵守它们写入国际条约中的规则,我们就倒退到了上一个世纪。只有当原则不被常识约束时,它们才是危险的。Remember the story about a drunken fight over a principle? Two men order drinks; one of them takes the change. “Hey, that’s my money,says the other. “No, it’s mine,the first retorts. “Are you calling me a liar?Ugliness ensues; the police are called. “Did you get into a fight over 50 cents?asks the officer as the two men are whisked away. “No, it was over a principle.”还记得醉鬼因为原则而打架的故事吗?两个男子点了酒水;其中一人拿走了找零。“喂,那是我的钱,”另一个人说。“不,是我的钱,”第一个人反驳。“你是在说我是骗子么?”事情变得丑陋起来;警察被叫来了。“你们为0美分打架?”警官在带走两名男子时询问。“不,是为了原则。”I am not suggesting that Crimea is small change (although Vyacheslav Molotov called Finland “small potatoesduring the postwar peace negotiations). I am suggesting that in a democracy, foreign policy requires a balance between realism and idealism. Realism without idealism leads to cynicism. Idealism without realism leads to a bloody nose.我不是在暗示克里米亚是“找零”(尽管维亚切斯拉夫#8226;莫洛托夫(Vyacheslav Molotov)在战后和平协商时的确把芬兰叫做“小角色”)。我的意思是,在民主国家,外交政策需要在现实主义和理想主义之间达成平衡。没有理想主义的现实主义会导致愤世嫉俗。没有现实主义的理想主义会遭遇迎头痛击。The lessons of Finland’s experience of dealing with Russia can be summed up in two sentences. First, do not be naive. Second, do not be stupid. Great powers are good at changing their policies unexpectedly and Russia is no exception. One day they are friends, the next they are selling you down the river. Remember the Treaty of Tilsit? It led to Russia robbing Finland from Sweden with Napoleon’s consent. Remember the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact? It lead to Josef Stalin taking over the Baltic states and trying (but failing) to take over Finland. Remember Yalta? Well, everyone remembers Yalta.芬兰应对俄罗斯的经验教训可以总结成两句话。首先,别天真。其次,别犯蠢。大国擅于出其不意地改变政策,俄罗斯也不例外。今天他们和你是朋友,明天就会出卖你。还记得《提尔西特条约Treaty of Tilsit)吗?该条约使俄罗斯得到拿破仑的许可,从瑞典手中夺取了芬兰。还记得《苏德互不侵犯条约Molotov-Ribbentrop pact)吗?该条约使约瑟#8226;斯大Josef Stalin)控制了波罗的海国家并试图(虽然失败了)控制芬兰。还记得雅尔Yalta)吗?好吧,每个人都记得雅尔塔。How can we stop the downward spiral of sanctions? Two things need to be done. First, there should be a peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia, combining an agreement on borders with a commitment from Kiev to uphold the rights of Russian speakers, and a commitment from Moscow to stop supporting the rebels in eastern Ukraine. This offers both sides a face-saving way out. Second, Russia and the west should reconfirm their commitment to the so-called Helsinki principles: respect of territorial integrity and human rights. The Helsinki Accords will turn 40 next summer. This would be a good time to renew these vows. If Moscow chooses this course, the west should begin to dismantle the sanctions.我们怎么才能阻止制裁的恶性循环呢?需要做两件事。首先,需要在乌克兰和俄罗斯之间缔结和平条约,并在两国间达成边境协定,基辅方面要承诺维护说俄语人群的权利,而莫斯科方面要许诺不再持乌克兰东部的反叛分子。这给双方提供了一个留存颜面的出路。第二,俄罗斯和西方应该再度确认对遵守“赫尔辛基原则Helsinki principles)的承诺:尊重领土完整和人权。明年夏天,《赫尔辛基协议Helsinki Accords)就签0年了。这是一个更新誓言的好时机。如果莫斯科选择采取这样的行动,西方就应该开始取消制裁。It sounds idealistic, and perhaps it is. Just in case, Finland and Sweden should join Nato in due course. Moscow might complain that the western sphere of influence was again expanding. But these two countries are aly part of the west. Their membership in Nato would benefit Russia: it would bring in two pragmatic countries who want to make Russia and Nato partners again. As surprising as it may sound these days, it is possible to balance idealism and pragmatism in a constructive way.这听上去很理想化,事实上可能也是如此。以防万一,芬兰和瑞典应该在适当的时候加入北Nato)。莫斯科或许会抱怨西方的势力范围又扩张了。但这两个国家已经是西方的一部分了。它们加入北约会使俄罗斯受益:引入两个信奉实用主义、希望俄罗斯和北约重归于好的国家。眼下这听上去或许让人惊讶,但以一种建设性的方式平衡理想主义和实用主义是可能的。The writer is secretary-general of the Northern Light, a European business leadersconvention based in Helsinki作者是赫尔辛基欧洲商界领袖大会“Northern Light”的秘书长来 /201410/335768

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